scholarly journals Review of "Tsunami Hazard assessment and Scenarios Database for the Tsunami Warning System for the coast of Oman"

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joern Behrens
Keyword(s):  
Hazard Assessment ◽  
Warning System ◽  
Tsunami Hazard ◽  
Tsunami Warning ◽  
Tsunami Warning System ◽  
Tsunami Hazard Assessment

scholarly journals Tsunami Hazard assessment and Scenarios Database for the Tsunami Warning System for the coast of Oman

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Íñigo Aniel-Quiroga ◽  
José A. Álvarez-Gómez ◽  
Mauricio González ◽  
Jara Martínez Sánchez ◽  
Laura M. Parro ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Hazard Assessment ◽  
Warning System ◽  
Tsunami Hazard ◽  
Assessment System ◽  
Tsunami Warning ◽  
Tsunami Warning System ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Makran Subduction Zone ◽  
Tsunami Hazard Assessment ◽  
Scenario Database

Abstract. Advances in the understanding of tsunami impacts allow developing products to assess its consequences in tsunami-prone areas, as it is the case of the coast of the Sultanate of Oman. This paper presents the followed methodology and the obtained results for the assessment of the tsunami hazard of the coast of Oman and the development of the scenario database that feeds its Tsunami Warning System (TWS). Initially, a seismo-tectonic analysis of the area was carried out, focused on identifying the seismic areas whose earthquakes could generate tsunamis affecting the coast of Oman. A database of 3181 tsunamigenic sources was characterized by means of the parameters that define their focal mechanisms. This database includes scenarios with magnitudes Mw ranging from 6.5 to 9.25 within the study area, but it is especially focused on the Makran Subduction Zone (MSZ). The 3181 cases were numerically propagated to feed the database and to work as precomputed scenarios for the TWS: In case of tsunami, the results for the closest precomputed scenario (in location and magnitude) are shown. From the database, 7 worst-case scenarios were selected and computationally simulated at national and local scale, in 9 municipalities all along the coast of Oman, resulting in tsunami hazard maps containing relevant variables in the flooded area, such as the inundation water depth and the drag level (hazard degree for people instability). Finally, in order to manage conveniently the results, an online tool, called Multi-Hazard Risk Assessment System (MHRAS), was developed. This tool is a viewer that contains an easy-to-use application, including the results of the tsunami hazard assessment and the tsunami scenario database, and the selection algorithm to choose the proper case among the precomputed ones. The results of this research are part of the National Multi-Hazard Early Warning System of Oman (NMHEWS).

scholarly journals Tsunami risk management for crustal earthquakes and non-seismic sources in Italy

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Selva ◽  
A. Amato ◽  
A. Armigliato ◽  
R. Basili ◽  
F. Bernardi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Warning System ◽  
Physical Modelling ◽  
Tsunami Hazard ◽  
Tsunami Warning ◽  
Current Status ◽  
Seismic Sources ◽  
Warning Systems ◽  
Tsunami Warning System ◽  
Crustal Earthquakes ◽  
The Mediterranean

AbstractDestructive tsunamis are most often generated by large earthquakes occurring at subduction interfaces, but also other “atypical” sources—defined as crustal earthquakes and non-seismic sources altogether—may cause significant tsunami threats. Tsunamis may indeed be generated by different sources, such as earthquakes, submarine or coastal landslides, volcano-related phenomena, and atmospheric perturbations. The consideration of atypical sources is important worldwide, but it is especially prominent in complex tectonic settings such as the Mediterranean, the Caribbean, or the Indonesian archipelago. The recent disasters in Indonesia in 2018, caused by the Palu-Sulawesi magnitude Mw 7.5 crustal earthquake and by the collapse of the Anak-Krakatau volcano, recall the importance of such sources. Dealing with atypical sources represents a scientific, technical, and computational challenge, which depends on the capability of quantifying and managing uncertainty efficiently and of reducing it with accurate physical modelling. Here, we first introduce the general framework in which tsunami threats are treated, and then we review the current status and the expected future development of tsunami hazard quantifications and of the tsunami warning systems in Italy, with a specific focus on the treatment of atypical sources. In Italy, where the memory of historical atypical events like the 1908 Messina earthquake or the relatively recent 2002 Stromboli tsunami is still vivid, specific attention has been indeed dedicated to the progressive development of innovative strategies to deal with such atypical sources. More specifically, we review the (national) hazard analyses and their application for coastal planning, as well as the two operating tsunami warning systems: the national warning system for seismically generated tsunamis (SiAM), whose upstream component—the CAT-INGV—is also a Tsunami Service Provider of the North-eastern Atlantic, the Mediterranean and connected seas Tsunami Warning System (NEAMTWS) coordinated by the Intergovernmental Coordination Group established by the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC) of UNESCO, and the local warning system for tsunamis generated by volcanic slides along the Sciara del Fuoco of Stromboli volcano. Finally, we review the state of knowledge about other potential tsunami sources that may generate significant tsunamis for the Italian coasts, but that are not presently considered in existing tsunami warning systems. This may be considered the first step towards their inclusion in the national tsunami hazard and warning programs.

scholarly journals Deterministic approach for multiple-source tsunami hazard assessment for Sines, Portugal

2015 ◽  
Vol 15 (11) ◽  
pp. 2557-2568 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Wronna ◽  
R. Omira ◽  
M. A. Baptista
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level ◽  
Wave Height ◽  
Hazard Assessment ◽  
Test Site ◽  
Tsunami Hazard ◽  
Deterministic Approach ◽  
Flow Depth ◽  
Mean Sea Level ◽  
Tsunami Hazard Assessment ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. In this paper, we present a deterministic approach to tsunami hazard assessment for the city and harbour of Sines, Portugal, one of the test sites of project ASTARTE (Assessment, STrategy And Risk Reduction for Tsunamis in Europe). Sines has one of the most important deep-water ports, which has oil-bearing, petrochemical, liquid-bulk, coal, and container terminals. The port and its industrial infrastructures face the ocean southwest towards the main seismogenic sources. This work considers two different seismic zones: the Southwest Iberian Margin and the Gloria Fault. Within these two regions, we selected a total of six scenarios to assess the tsunami impact at the test site. The tsunami simulations are computed using NSWING, a Non-linear Shallow Water model wIth Nested Grids. In this study, the static effect of tides is analysed for three different tidal stages: MLLW (mean lower low water), MSL (mean sea level), and MHHW (mean higher high water). For each scenario, the tsunami hazard is described by maximum values of wave height, flow depth, drawback, maximum inundation area and run-up. Synthetic waveforms are computed at virtual tide gauges at specific locations outside and inside the harbour. The final results describe the impact at the Sines test site considering the single scenarios at mean sea level, the aggregate scenario, and the influence of the tide on the aggregate scenario. The results confirm the composite source of Horseshoe and Marques de Pombal faults as the worst-case scenario, with wave heights of over 10 m, which reach the coast approximately 22 min after the rupture. It dominates the aggregate scenario by about 60 % of the impact area at the test site, considering maximum wave height and maximum flow depth. The HSMPF scenario inundates a total area of 3.5 km2.

scholarly journals Potential deployment of offshore bottom pressure gauges and adoption of data assimilation for tsunami warning system in the western Mediterranean Sea

2019 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Mohammad Heidarzadeh ◽  
Yuchen Wang ◽  
Kenji Satake ◽  
Iyan E. Mulia
Keyword(s):  
Data Assimilation ◽  
Warning System ◽  
Western Mediterranean ◽  
Tsunami Warning ◽  
Sensitivity Analyses ◽  
Bottom Pressure ◽  
Tsunami Warning System ◽  
Earthquake Scenarios ◽  
The North ◽  
Western Mediterranean Basin

AbstractWestern Mediterranean Basin (WMB) is among tsunamigenic zones with numerous historical records of tsunami damage and deaths. Most recently, a moderate tsunami on 21 May 2003 offshore Algeria, North Africa, was a fresh call for strengthening tsunami warning capabilities in this enclosed water basin. Here, we propose to deploy offshore bottom pressure gauges (OBPGs) and to adopt the framework of a tsunami data assimilation (TDA) approach for providing timely tsunami forecasts. We demonstrate the potential enhancement of the tsunami warning system through the case study of the 2003 Algeria tsunami. Four scenarios of OBPG arrangements involving 10, 5, 3 and 2 gauges are considered. The offshore gauges are located at distances of 120–300 km from the North African coast. The warning lead times are 20, 30, 48 and 55 min for four points of interest considered in this study: Ibiza, Palma, Sant Antoni and Barcelona, respectively. The forecast accuracies are in the range of 69–85% for the four OBPG scenarios revealing acceptable accuracies for tsunami warnings. We conclude that installation of OBPGs in the WMB can be helpful for providing successful and timely tsunami forecasts. We note that the OBPG scenarios proposed in this study are applicable only for the case of the 2003 Algeria tsunami. Further studies including sensitivity analyses (e.g., number of OBPG stations; earthquake magnitude, strike, epicenter) are required in order to determine OBPG arrangements that could be useful for various earthquake scenarios in the WMB.

Generating Random Earthquake Events for Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment

2016 ◽  
Vol 173 (12) ◽  
pp. 3671-3692 ◽  
Author(s):  
Randall J. LeVeque ◽  
Knut Waagan ◽  
Frank I. González ◽  
Donsub Rim ◽  
Guang Lin
Keyword(s):  
Hazard Assessment ◽  
Tsunami Hazard ◽  
Tsunami Hazard Assessment ◽  
Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment

Regional tsunami hazard maps for the Far East coast of the Russian Federation built in the framework of the PTHA methodology

2019 ◽  
pp. 55-72
Author(s):  
Вячеслав Константинович Гусяков ◽  
Владимир Андреевич Кихтенко ◽  
Леонид Борисович Чубаров ◽  
Юрий Иванович Шокин
Keyword(s):  
Russian Federation ◽  
Hazard Assessment ◽  
East Coast ◽  
Far East ◽  
Tsunami Hazard ◽  
Eastern Coast ◽  
The Far East ◽  
Tsunami Hazard Assessment ◽  
The Russian Federation ◽  
Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment

В работе идет речь о реализации методики вероятностного цунамирайонирования побережья, известной под названием PTHA (Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment), для создания обзорных карт цунамиопасности дальневосточного побережья России. Обсуждаются методологические основы такого подхода, проблемы построения сейсмотектонических моделей основных цунамигенных зон, численные методики получения расчетных каталогов высот волн на побережье. Приведены примеры обзорных карт для различных повторяемостей, построенных с применением методики PTHA и представленных с помощью созданного веб-приложения WTMap. Упоминаются также некоторые проблемы применения методики PTHA, связанные как с недостаточностью данных наблюдений, так и со сложностью выполнения большого объема сценарного численного моделирования. The article describes the results of the implementation of the PTHA (Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment) methodology for creating the overview maps of tsunami hazard for the Far East coast of the Russian Federation. Such maps show the characteristics of the catastrophic impact of tsunami waves on the coast and the probability of their exceeding in a given period of time. The methodological basis of the PTHA approach to the assessment of tsunami hazard, the problems of constructing seismotectonic models of the main tsunamigenic zones, mathematical models and algorithms for calculating probability estimates of tsunami danger are discussed. The version of the PTHA methodology outlined in the article is implemented as a “WTmap” Web-application that has an access to the entire observational information related to coastal tsunami zoning and software packages used. The application allows to obtain the estimates of the expected tsunami heights and their recurrence estimates and to map them on specific parts of the Far Eastern coast of the Russian Federation. The obtained estimates can be quickly recalculated when replacing the observational catalogs with more complete and reliable ones, with the addition of new, previously absent events or the revision of their parameters, as well as the results of new scenario calculations. Examples of overview maps for various recurrence intervals, constructed using the PTHA methodology and presented using the “WTMap” application, are given. Some problems of using the PTHA methodology related to the lack of available observational data and to the complexity of performing a large amount of scenario simulations are also discussed.

scholarly journals Applicability of the Decision Matrix of North Eastern Atlantic, Mediterranean and connected seas Tsunami Warning System to the Italian tsunamis

2012 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 843-857 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Tinti ◽  
L. Graziani ◽  
B. Brizuela ◽  
A. Maramai ◽  
S. Gallazzi
Keyword(s):  
Indian Ocean ◽  
Warning System ◽  
Tsunami Warning ◽  
The Other ◽  
Tsunami Source ◽  
Indian Ocean Tsunami ◽  
Decision Matrix ◽  
Tsunami Warning System ◽  
North Eastern ◽  
The Mediterranean

Abstract. After the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami catastrophe, UNESCO through the IOC (Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission) sponsored the establishment of Intergovernmental Coordination Groups (ICG) with the aim to devise and implement Tsunami Warning Systems (TWSs) in all the oceans exposed to tsunamis, in addition to the one already in operation in the Pacific (PTWS). In this context, since 2005, efforts have begun for the establishment of TWSs in the Indian Ocean (IOTWS), in the Caribbean area (CARIBE EWS) and in the North Eastern Atlantic, the Mediterranean and Connected Seas (NEAMTWS). In this paper, we focus on a specific tool that was first introduced in the PTWS routine operations, i.e., the Decision Matrix (DM). This is an easy-to-use table establishing a link between the main parameters of an earthquake and the possible ensuing tsunami in order to make quick decision on the type of alert bulletins that a Tsunami Warning Center launches to its recipients. In the process of implementation of a regional TWS for the NEAM area, two distinct DMs were recently proposed by the ICG/NEAMTWS, one for the Atlantic and the other for the entire Mediterranean area. This work applies the Mediterranean NEAMTWS DM to the earthquakes recorded in Italy and compares the action predicted by the DM vs. the action that should be appropriate in view of the observed tsunami characteristics with the aim to establish how good the performance of the Italian TWS will be when it uses the DM for future events. To this purpose, we make use of the parametric catalogue of the Italian earthquakes (CPTI04) compiled in 2004 and the most recent compilation of the Italian tsunami, based on the Italian Tsunami Catalogue of 2004 and the subsequent revisions. In order to better compare the TWS actions, we have identified four different kinds of action coding them from 0 to 3 according to the tsunami severity and have further considered three different distance ranges where these actions apply, that is local, regional and basin-wide, that refer to the distance of the message recipients from the tsunami source. The result of our analysis is that the actions prescribed by the DM are adequate only in 45%–55% of the cases, overestimations are about 37% and underestimations are the rest. As a whole, the predictive ability of the DM is not satisfactory, which implies that recipients have the difficult task in managing bulletins carrying a great deal of uncertainty and on the other hand also suggests that strategies to improve the DM or to go beyond the DM need to be found.

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