scholarly journals Spatial distribution of water level impact to back-barrier bays

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alfredo L. Aretxabaleta ◽  
Neil K. Ganju ◽  
Zafer Defne ◽  
Richard P. Signell
Keyword(s):  
Water Level ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Analytical Models ◽  
Barnegat Bay ◽  
Sea Level Fluctuations ◽  
Flooding Hazard ◽  
Short Period ◽  
Inlet Geometry ◽  
Spatial Estimates

Abstract. Water level in semi-enclosed bays, landward of barrier islands, is mainly driven by offshore sea level fluctuations that are modulated by bay geometry and bathymetry, causing spatial variability in the ensuing response (transfer). Local wind setup can have a secondary role that depends on wind speed, fetch, and relative orientation of the wind direction and the bay. Inlet geometry and bathymetry primarily regulate the magnitude of the transfer between open ocean and bay. Tides and short-period offshore oscillations are more damped in the bays than longer-lasting offshore fluctuations, such as storm surge and sea level rise. We compare observed and modeled water levels at stations in a mid-Atlantic bay (Barnegat Bay) with offshore water level proxies. Observed water levels in Barnegat Bay are compared and combined with model results from the Coupled Ocean–Atmosphere–Wave–Sediment Transport (COAWST) modeling system to evaluate the spatial structure of the water level transfer. Analytical models based on the dimensional characteristics of the bay are used to combine the observed data and the numerical model results in a physically consistent approach. Model water level transfers match observed values at locations inside the Bay in the storm frequency band (transfers ranging from 70–100 %) and tidal frequencies (10–55 %). The contribution of frequency-dependent local setup caused by wind acting along the bay is also considered. The approach provides transfer estimates for locations inside the Bay where observations were not available resulting in a complete spatial characterization. The approach allows for the study of the Bay response to alternative forcing scenarios (landscape changes, future storms, and rising sea level). Detailed spatial estimates of water level transfer can inform decisions on inlet management and contribute to the assessment of current and future flooding hazard in back-barrier bays and along mainland shorelines.

scholarly journals Spatial distribution of water level impacting back-barrier bays

2019 ◽  
Vol 19 (8) ◽  
pp. 1823-1838
Author(s):  
Alfredo L. Aretxabaleta ◽  
Neil K. Ganju ◽  
Zafer Defne ◽  
Richard P. Signell
Keyword(s):  
Water Level ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
The United States ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Analytical Models ◽  
Barnegat Bay ◽  
Sea Level Fluctuations ◽  
Flooding Hazard ◽  
Short Period ◽  
Spatial Estimates

Abstract. Water level in semi-enclosed bays, landward of barrier islands, is mainly driven by offshore sea level fluctuations that are modulated by bay geometry and bathymetry, causing spatial variability in the ensuing response (transfer). Local wind setup can have a complementary role that depends on wind speed, fetch, and relative orientation of the wind direction and the bay. Bay area and inlet geometry and bathymetry primarily regulate the magnitude of the transfer between open ocean and bay. Tides and short-period offshore oscillations are more damped in the bays than longer-lasting offshore fluctuations, such as a storm surge and sea level rise. We compare observed and modeled water levels at stations in a mid-Atlantic bay (Barnegat Bay) with offshore water level proxies. Observed water levels in Barnegat Bay are compared and combined with model results from the Coupled Ocean–Atmosphere–Wave–Sediment Transport (COAWST) modeling system to evaluate the spatial structure of the water level transfer. Analytical models based on the dimensional characteristics of the bay are used to combine the observed data and the numerical model results in a physically consistent approach. Model water level transfers match observed values at locations inside the bay in the storm frequency band (transfers ranging from 50 %–100 %) and tidal frequencies (10 %–55 %). The contribution of frequency-dependent local setup caused by wind acting along the bay is also considered. The wind setup effect can be comparable in magnitude to the offshore transfer forcing during intense storms. The approach provides transfer estimates for locations inside the bay where observations were not available, resulting in a complete spatial characterization. An extension of the methodology that takes advantage of the ADCIRC tidal database for the east coast of the United States allows for the expansion of the approach to other bay systems. Detailed spatial estimates of water level transfer can inform decisions on inlet management and contribute to the assessment of current and future flooding hazard in back-barrier bays and along mainland shorelines.

scholarly journals Determining Extreme Still Water Levels for Design and Planning Purposes Incorporating Sea Level Rise: Sydney, Australia

Atmosphere ◽  
2022 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 95
Author(s):  
Phil J. Watson
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Water Level ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Tide Gauge ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Extreme Value Analysis ◽  
Tide Gauge Record ◽  
Value Analysis ◽  
Mean Sea Level ◽  
The Impact

This paper provides an Extreme Value Analysis (EVA) of the hourly water level record at Fort Denison dating back to 1915 to understand the statistical likelihood of the combination of high predicted tides and the more dynamic influences that can drive ocean water levels higher at the coast. The analysis is based on the Peaks-Over-Threshold (POT) method using a fitted Generalised Pareto Distribution (GPD) function to estimate extreme hourly heights above mean sea level. The analysis highlights the impact of the 1974 East Coast Low event and rarity of the associated measured water level above mean sea level at Sydney, with an estimated return period exceeding 1000 years. Extreme hourly predictions are integrated with future projections of sea level rise to provide estimates of relevant still water levels at 2050, 2070 and 2100 for a range of return periods (1 to 1000 years) for use in coastal zone management, design, and sea level rise adaptation planning along the NSW coastline. The analytical procedures described provide a step-by-step guide for practitioners on how to develop similar baseline information from any long tide gauge record and the associated limitations and key sensitivities that must be understood and appreciated in applying EVA.

scholarly journals The Role of Mean Sea Level Annual Cycle on Extreme Water Levels Along European Coastline

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (20) ◽  
pp. 3419
Author(s):  
Tomás Fernández-Montblanc ◽  
Jesús Gómez-Enri ◽  
Paolo Ciavola
Keyword(s):  
Water Level ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
North Sea ◽  
Extreme Events ◽  
Annual Cycle ◽  
Coastal Flooding ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Total Water ◽  
Mean Sea Level ◽  
The Impact

The knowledge of extreme total water levels (ETWLs) and the derived impact, coastal flooding and erosion, is crucial to face the present and future challenges exacerbated in European densely populated coastal areas. Based on 24 years (1993–2016) of multimission radar altimetry, this paper investigates the contribution of each water level component: tide, surge and annual cycle of monthly mean sea level (MMSL) to the ETWLs. It focuses on the contribution of the annual variation of MMSL in the coastal flooding extreme events registered in a European database. In microtidal areas (Black, Baltic and Mediterranean Sea), the MMSL contribution is mostly larger than tide, and it can be at the same order of magnitude of the surge. In meso and macrotidal areas, the MMSL contribution is <20% of the total water level, but larger (>30%) in the North Sea. No correlation was observed between the average annual cycle of monthly mean sea level (AMMSL) and coastal flooding extreme events (CFEEs) along the European coastal line. Positive correlations of the component variance of MMSL with the relative frequency of CFEEs extend to the Central Mediterranean (r = 0.59), North Sea (r = 0.60) and Baltic Sea (r = 0.75). In the case of positive MMSL anomalies, the correlation expands to the Bay of Biscay and northern North Atlantic (at >90% of statistical significance). The understanding of the spatial and temporal patterns of a combination of all the components of the ETWLs shall improve the preparedness and coastal adaptation measures to reduce the impact of coastal flooding.

Linking weather types to tense dewatering situations of the Kiel Canal (NOK)

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Corinna Jensen ◽  
Jens Möller ◽  
Peter Löwe
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Water Level ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
North Sea ◽  
Time Windows ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Weather Types ◽  
The North ◽  
The North Sea ◽  
Kiel Canal

&lt;p&gt;Within the &amp;#8220;Network of experts&amp;#8221; of the German Federal Ministry of Transport and Digital Infrastructure (BMVI), the effect of climate change on infrastructure is investigated. One aspect of this project is the future dewatering situation of the Kiel Canal (&amp;#8220;Nord-Ostsee-Kanal&amp;#8221; (NOK)). The Kiel Canal is one of the world&amp;#8217;s busiest man-made waterways navigable by seagoing ships. It connects the North Sea to the Baltic Sea and can save the ships hundreds of kilometers of distance. With a total annual sum of transferred cargo of up to 100 million tons it is an economically very important transportation way. Additionally to the transportation of cargo, the canal is also used to discharge water from smaller rivers as well as drainage of a catchments area of about 1500 km&amp;#178;.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;The canal can only operate in a certain water level range. If its water level exceeds the maximum level, the water must be drained into the sea. In 90% of the time, the water is drained into the North Sea during time windows with low tide. If the water level outside of the canal is too high, drainage is not possible and the canal traffic has to be reduced or, in extreme cases, shut down. Due to the expected sea level rise, the potential time windows for dewatering are decreasing in the future. With a decrease in operational hours, there will be substantial economic losses as well as an increase in traffic around Denmark.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;To get a better understanding of what causes tense dewatering situations other than sea level rise a linkage between high water levels on the outside of the canal and weather types is made. Weather types describe large-scale circulation patterns and can therefore give an estimate on tracks of low-pressure systems as well as the prevailing winds, which can explain surges and water levels at the coast. This analysis is conducted for one weather type classification method based solely on sea level pressure fields. Weather types derived from regionally coupled climate models as well as reanalyses are investigated.&lt;/p&gt;

scholarly journals Sea level changes along the Turkish coasts of the Black Sea, the Aegean Sea and the Eastern Mediterranean

2000 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 141 ◽  
Author(s):  
B. ALPAR ◽  
E. DOGAN ◽  
H. YUCE ◽  
H. ALTIOK
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level ◽  
Black Sea ◽  
Eastern Mediterranean ◽  
The Black Sea ◽  
Marmara Sea ◽  
Sea Level Changes ◽  
Sea Levels ◽  
Sea Level Fluctuations ◽  
Short Period ◽  
Turkish Straits System

Short, tidal, subtidal, seasonal, secular sea-level variations, sea-level differences and interactions between the basins have been studied, based on the data collected at some permanent and temporary tide gauges located along the Turkish coasts, mostly along the Straits connecting the Marmara Sea to outer seas. Even though the deficiency of sufficient information prevented us to reach the desired results, many pre-existed studies have been improved. Short-period oscillations were clearly identified along the Turkish Strait System and related to their natu-ral periods. The tidal amplitudes are low along the Turkish coasts, except northern Aegean and eastern Mediterranean. The stability of harmonic constants of Samsun and Antalya were examined and most of the long period constituents were found to be unstable. Even the Marmara Sea is not affected from the tidal oscillations of Black and Aegean Seas, some interactions in low frequency band have been detected. Subtidal sea level fluctuations (3-14 day) have relations with the large-scale cyclic atmospheric patterns passing over the Turkish Straits System. Short-term effects of wind on sea level are evident.Seasonal sea-level fluctuations along the Turkish Straits System are in accord with Black Sea's hydrological cycle. The differential range of the monthly mean sea levels between the Black Sea and the Marmara Sea is highly variable; high during spring and early summer and low during fall and winter.On the average, there is a pronounced sea-level difference (55 cm) along the Turkish Straits System. However, the slope is nonlinear, being much steeper in the Strait of Istanbul. This barotrophic pressure difference is one of the most important factors causing the two-layer flow through the system. The topography and hydrodynamics of the straits, the dominant wind systems and their seasonal variations make this flow more complicated. For secular sea level changes, a rise of 3.2 mm/a was computed for Karsiyaka (1935-71) and a steady trend (-0.4 mm /a) has been observed for annual sea levels at Antalya (1935-77). The decreasing trend (-6.9 mm/a) at Samsun is contrary to the secular rising trend of the Black Sea probably because of its rather short monitoring period (1963-77).

Improving Methodology for High-Resolution Reconstruction of Sea-Level Rise and Neotectonics by Paleoecological Analysis and AMS 14C Dating of Basal Peats

1998 ◽  
Vol 49 (1) ◽  
pp. 72-85 ◽  
Author(s):  
Torbjörn E. Törnqvist ◽  
Mark H.M. van Ree ◽  
Ron van 't Veer ◽  
Bas van Geel
Keyword(s):  
High Resolution ◽  
Ground Water ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Water Level ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Small Sample ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Ground Water Level ◽  
Specific Level ◽  
High Resolution Reconstruction

Sea-level research in several submerging coastal regions has traditionally been based on 14C dating of basal peats that overlie a compaction-free substratum and can be related to paleo-(ground)water levels. Provided that an unequivocal relationship between (ground)water level and sea level can be assumed, this approach contains two sources of uncertainty: (1) the paleoenvironmental interpretation of samples is usually based on inherently inaccurate macroscopic descriptions in the field, and (2) 14C ages of bulk peat samples may be erroneous as a result of contamination. Due to the uncertainties in both the altitude and the age—the two crucial sources of evidence necessary to arrive at accurate sea-level curves—sea-level index points are therefore represented by considerable, but typically not quantified, error boxes. Accelerator mass spectrometry (AMS) opens new perspectives for this type of sea-level research, as illustrated by a paleoecological and AMS 14C study of basal peats from a small study area in the Rhine–Meuse Delta (The Netherlands), where previous (conventional) work revealed highly problematic results. A detailed macrofossil analysis has two purposes: (1) an inferred paleoecological succession indicates a relatively accurate level of paludification of the site, and hence rise of the (ground)water level; (2) suitable macrofossils from that specific level are then selected for AMS 14C dating. In spite of very small sample sizes, our results are consistent and indicate that this approach can constitute a step forward in high-resolution reconstruction of sea-level rise. The new results further enable a revision of Holocene (ground)water gradient lines for the Rhine–Meuse Delta. A knickpoint in these gradient lines can be related to the effect of faulting. This approach therefore also has considerable potential to unravel and quantify neotectonic activity in submerging coastal settings.

scholarly journals Evolution of extreme Total Water Levels along the northern coast of the Iberian Peninsula

2011 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 613-625 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. F. Rasilla Álvarez ◽  
J. C. García Codron
Keyword(s):  
Iberian Peninsula ◽  
Water Level ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Tide Gauge ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Northern Coast ◽  
Atmospheric Conditions ◽  
Total Water ◽  
Total Water Level

Abstract. This paper assesses the evolution of storminess along the northern coast of the Iberian Peninsula through the calculation of extreme (1%) Total Water Levels (eTWL) on both observed (tide gauge and buoy data) and hindcasted (SIMAR-44) data. Those events were first identified and then characterized in terms of oceanographic parameters and atmospheric circulation features. Additionally, an analysis of the long-term trends in both types of data was performed. Most of the events correspond to a rough wave climate and moderate storm surges, linked to extratropical disturbances following a northern track. While local atmospheric conditions seem to be evolving towards lesser storminess, their impact has been balanced by the favorable exposure of the northern coast of the Iberian Peninsula to the increasing frequency and strength of distant disturbances crossing the North Atlantic. This evolution is also correctly reproduced by the simulated long-term evolution of the forcing component (meteorological sea level residuals and wave run up) of the Total Water Level values calculated from the SIMAR 44 database, since sea level residuals have been experiencing a reduction while waves are arriving with longer periods. Finally, the addition of the rate of relative sea level trend to the temporal evolution of the atmospheric forcing component of the Total Water Level values is enough to simulate more frequent and persistent eTWL.

scholarly journals Relative water-level rise in the Flevo lagoon (The Netherlands), 5300-2000 cal. yr BC: an evaluation of new and existing basal peat time-depth data

2003 ◽  
Vol 82 (2) ◽  
pp. 115-131 ◽  
Author(s):  
B. Makaske ◽  
D.G. Van Smeerdijk ◽  
H. Peeters ◽  
J.R. Mulder ◽  
T. Spek
Keyword(s):  
The Netherlands ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Water Level ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Mean Sea Level ◽  
Water Level Rise ◽  
Depth Data ◽  
Local Water

AbstractThe rise of Holocene (ground)water level as a function of relative sea-level rise has been extensively investigated in the western Netherlands, whereas few studies focused on the Flevo lagoon in the central Netherlands. In this study, all available 14C dates from the base of basal peat overlying the top of compaction-free Pleistocene sand in the former Flevo lagoon were evaluated in order to reconstruct water-level rise for the period 5300-2000 cal. yr BC. The present basal peat 14C data set from Flevoland consists of two subsets: (1) the largely new Almere data (41 dates) representing the southern part of the former Flevo lagoon, with 26 dates especially carried out for this study, and (2) the existing Schokland data (21 dates) representing the eastern part of the lagoon. The Schokland area is located about 50 km from the Almere area. The quality of all basal peat time-depth data was palaeo-ecologically and geologically evaluated, all 14C dates were calibrated to the same standards, and error margins of age and altitude determination were estimated. After plotting the data as error boxes in time-depth graphs, lower limit curves for water-level rise were constructed for both data sets. Comparison with the mean sea-level curve for The Netherlands (Van de Plassche, 1982) suggests that water-level rise in the Almere area between 5300 and 2000 cal. yr BC corresponded closely to the rise in mean sea level. The same holds for the Schokland area for the period 5000-4200 cal. yr BC. For the period 4200-2000 cal. yr BC, however, the Schokland data suggest water-level rise to have been slower than mean sea-level rise, leading to local water levels apparently below mean sea level, which is virtually impossible. Hypothetical explanations for this discrepancy include: errors and uncertainties in mean sea-level and local water-level reconstruction, basin subsidence and temporal differences in intra-coastal tidal damping. The presently available data are inconclusive at this point and Holocene water-level rise in the Flevo lagoon awaits further investigations.

Groundwater modelling for time periods of up to hundreds of thousands of years.

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gerrit H. de Rooij ◽  
Thomas Mueller
Keyword(s):  
Surface Water ◽  
Water Level ◽  
Coastal Plain ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Hydraulic Head ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Analytical Models ◽  
Time Interval ◽  
Mountain Range ◽  
Time Step

&lt;p&gt;Occasionally, there is an interest in groundwater flows over many millennia. The input parameter requirement of numerical groundwater flow models and their calculation times limit their usefulness for such studies.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Analytical models require considerable simplifications of the properties and geometry of aquifers and of the forcings. On the other hand, they do not appear to have an inherent limitation on the duration of the simulated period. The simplest models have explicit solutions, meaning that the hydraulic head at a given time and location can be calculated directly, without the need to incrementally iterate through the entire preceding time period like their numerical counterparts.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;We developed an analytical solution for a simple aquifer geometry: a strip aquifer between a no flow boundary and a body of surface water with a prescribed water level. This simplicity permitted flexible forcings: The non-uniform initial hydraulic head in the aquifer is arbitrary and the surface water level can vary arbitrarily with time. Aquifer recharge must be uniform in space but can also vary arbitrarily with time.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;We also developed a modification that verifies after prescribed and constant time intervals if the hydraulic head is such that the land surface is covered with water. This excess water then infiltrates in areas where the groundwater level is below the surface and the remainder is discharged into the surface water. The hydraulic head across the aquifer is modified accordingly and used as the initial condition for the next time interval. This modification models the development of a river network during dry periods. The increased flexibility of the model comes at the price of the need to go through the entire simulation period one time step at a time. For very long time records, these intervals will typically be one year.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Given the uncertainty of the aquifer parameters and the forcings, the models are expected to be used in a stochastic framework. We are therefore working on a shell that accepts multiple values for each parameter as well as multiple scenarios of surface water levels and groundwater recharge rates, along with an estimate of their probabilities. The shell will generate all possible resulting combinations, the number of which can easily exceed 10000, then runs the model for each combination, and computes statistics of the average hydraulic head and the aquifer discharge into the surface water at user-specified times.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;A case study will tell if this endeavor is viable. We will model the aquifer below the mountain range north of Salalah in Oman, which separates the desert of the Arabian Peninsula from the coastal plain at its southern shore. Rainfall estimates from the isotopic composition of stalactites in the area indicate distinct dry and wet periods in the past 300 000 years. In combination with estimated sea level fluctuations over that period, this provides an interesting combination of forcings. We examine the dynamics of the total amount of water stored in the aquifer, and of the outflow of water from the aquifer into the coastal plain.&lt;/p&gt;

Modelling waves and surges during the 1953 storm

2005 ◽  
Vol 363 (1831) ◽  
pp. 1359-1375 ◽  
Author(s):  
J Wolf ◽  
R.A Flather
Keyword(s):  
Water Level ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
North Sea ◽  
Tide Gauge ◽  
High Water ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Wind Fields ◽  
Sea Levels ◽  
Southern North Sea ◽  
Wave Models

Waves and sea levels have been modelled for the storm of 31 January–1 February 1953. Problems in modelling this event are associated with the difficulty of reconstructing wind fields and validating the model results with the limited data available from 50 years ago. The reconstruction of appropriate wind fields for surge and wave models is examined. The surges and waves are reproduced reasonably well on the basis of tide-gauge observations and the sparse observational information on wave heights. The maximum surge coincided closely in time with tidal high water, producing very high water levels along the coasts of the southern North Sea. The statistics of the 1953 event and the likelihood of recurrence are also discussed. Both surge and wave components were estimated to be approximately 1 in 50 year events. The maximum water level also occurred when the offshore waves were close to their maximum. The estimation of return period for the total water level is more problematic and is dependent on location. A scenario with the 1953 storm occurring in 2075, accounting for the effects of sea level rise and land movements, is also constructed, suggesting that sea level relative to the land could be 0.4–0.5 m higher than in 1953 in the southern North Sea, assuming a rise in mean sea level of 0.4 m.

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