scholarly journals A Strategic Framework for Natural Disaster-Induced Cost Risk Analysis and Mitigation: A Two-Stage Approach Using Deep Learning and Cost-Benefit Analysis

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ji-Myong Kim ◽  
Sang-Guk Yum ◽  
Hyunsoung Park ◽  
Junseo Bae
Keyword(s):  
Deep Learning ◽  
Natural Disasters ◽  
Natural Disaster ◽  
Cost Benefit Analysis ◽  
Risk Mitigation ◽  
Cost Benefit ◽  
Evaluation Framework ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
Disaster Mitigation ◽  
Benefit Analysis

Abstract. Due to gradual increases in the frequency and severity of natural disasters, risks to human life and property from natural disasters are exploding. To reduce these risks, various risk mitigation activities have been widely conducted. Risk mitigation activities are becoming more and more important for economic analysis of risk mitigation effects due to limited public budget and the need for economic development. To respond to this urgent need, this study aims to develop a strategic evaluation framework for natural disaster risk mitigation strategies. The proposed framework predicts natural disaster losses using a deep learning algorithm (stage I) and introduces a new methodology that quantifies the effect of natural disaster reduction projects adopting cost-benefit analysis (stage II). To achieve the main objectives of this study, data of insured loss amounts due to natural disasters associated with the identified risk indicators were collected and trained to develop the deep learning model. The robustness of the developed model was then scientifically validated. To demonstrate the proposed quantification methodology, reservoir maintenance projects affected by floods in South Korea were adopted. The results and main findings of this study can be used as valuable guidelines to establish natural disaster mitigation strategies. This study will help practitioners quantify the loss from natural disasters and thus evaluate the effectiveness of risk reduction projects. This study will also assist decision-makers to improve the effectiveness of risk mitigation activities.

scholarly journals A Framework for Risk-Based Cost–Benefit Analysis for Decision Support on Hydrogeological Risks in Underground Construction

Geosciences ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 82
Author(s):  
Johanna Merisalu ◽  
Jonas Sundell ◽  
Lars Rosén
Keyword(s):  
Decision Support ◽  
Cost Benefit Analysis ◽  
Risk Mitigation ◽  
Ground Surface ◽  
Cost Benefit ◽  
Expert Elicitation ◽  
Benefit Analysis ◽  
Underground Construction ◽  
Groundwater Leakage ◽  
Risk Reducing

Construction below the ground surface and underneath the groundwater table is often associated with groundwater leakage and drawdowns in the surroundings which subsequently can result in a wide variety of risks. To avoid groundwater drawdown-associated damages, risk-reducing measures must often be implemented. Due to the hydrogeological system’s inherent variability and our incomplete knowledge of its conditions, the effects of risk-reducing measures cannot be fully known in advance and decisions must inevitably be made under uncertainty. When implementing risk-reducing measures there is always a trade-off between the measures’ benefits (reduced risk) and investment costs which needs to be balanced. In this paper, we present a framework for decision support on measures to mitigate hydrogeological risks in underground construction. The framework is developed in accordance with the guidelines from the International Standardization Organization (ISO) and comprises a full risk-management framework with focus on risk analysis and risk evaluation. Cost–benefit analysis (CBA) facilitates monetization of consequences and economic evaluation of risk mitigation. The framework includes probabilistic risk estimation of the entire cause–effect chain from groundwater leakage to the consequences of damage where expert elicitation is combined with data-driven and process-based methods, allowing for continuous updating when new knowledge is obtained.

scholarly journals The ALARP Principle in the Cost-Benefit Analysis for the Acceptability of Investment Risk

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (12) ◽  
pp. 4668 ◽  
Author(s):  
Antonio Nesticò ◽  
Shuquan He ◽  
Gianluigi De Mare ◽  
Renato Benintendi ◽  
Gabriella Maselli
Keyword(s):  
Cost Benefit Analysis ◽  
Risk Mitigation ◽  
Cost Benefit ◽  
Economic Evaluations ◽  
Investment Risk ◽  
Benefit Analysis ◽  
Mitigation Design ◽  
The Cost

The process of allocating financial resources is extremely complex—both because the selection of investments depends on multiple, and interrelated, variables, and constraints that limit the eligibility domain of the solutions, and because the feasibility of projects is influenced by risk factors. In this sense, it is essential to develop economic evaluations on a probabilistic basis. Nevertheless, for the civil engineering sector, the literature emphasizes the centrality of risk management, in order to establish interventions for risk mitigation. On the other hand, few methodologies are available to systematically compare ante and post mitigation design risk, along with the verification of the economic convenience of these actions. The aim of the paper is to demonstrate how these limits can be at least partially overcome by integrating, in the traditional Cost-Benefit Analysis schemes, the As Low as Reasonably Practicable (ALARP) logic. According to it, the risk is tolerable only if it is impossible to reduce it further or if the costs to mitigate it are disproportionate to the benefits obtainable. The research outlines the phases of an innovative protocol for managing investment risks. On the basis of a case study dealing with a project for the recovery and transformation of an ancient medieval village into a widespread-hotel, the novelty of the model consists of the characterization of acceptability and tolerability thresholds of the investment risk, as well as its ability to guarantee the triangular balance between risks, costs and benefits deriving from mitigation options.

Cost-Benefit Analysis of Seismic Mitigation Measures for Wine Barrel Stacks

2018 ◽  
Vol 34 (1) ◽  
pp. 283-299
Author(s):  
Miguel A. Jaimes ◽  
Gabriel Candia ◽  
Philomène Favier
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Risk ◽  
Performance Metrics ◽  
Cost Benefit Analysis ◽  
Cost Benefit ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
Wine Industry ◽  
Mitigation Measures ◽  
Illustrative Case ◽  
Benefit Analysis ◽  
Benefit Cost

This study conducts a cost-benefit analysis of alternative seismic risk mitigation methods for wine barrel stacks. The Chilean wine industry is presented as an illustrative case study in which performance metrics, such as the expected annual loss (EAL) and benefit-cost ratios, are computed for wineries at different locations. By computing seismic risk within a consistent framework, this study shows the value of cost-benefit simulations for defining the best mitigation strategies and allocating economic resources. Likewise, this approach helps communicate information to decision makers because it is presented in a simple and transparent way, even if they are not familiar with formal risk studies. For three-level wine barrel stacks, it was observed that the Cradle Extender® (MS1) prevents a large number of barrel collapses and provides the highest benefit-cost ratio. On the other hand, for six-level wine barrel stacks, the prestressed cable (MS2) is more effective than MS1 as it prevents the barrel stack from overturning. No significant loss reduction is apparent in four- and five-level wine barrel stacks with the use of mitigation strategies; indeed, the mitigation strategies could generate greater losses and, therefore, other alternatives must be proposed.

scholarly journals Cost-benefit analysis of urban subsidence mitigation strategies in Gouda, the Netherlands

2020 ◽  
Vol 382 ◽  
pp. 761-766
Author(s):  
Sien Kok ◽  
Saskia Hommes-Slag
Keyword(s):  
The Netherlands ◽  
Inner City ◽  
Cost Benefit Analysis ◽  
Cost Benefit ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
Benefit Analysis ◽  
Positive Economic ◽  
Economic Rationale

Abstract. This paper presents the approach and outcomes of an exploratory cost-benefit analysis of subsidence mitigation strategies in the inner city of Gouda, the Netherlands. Results indicate that especially the strategy focusing on reducing damage, rather than a strategy aiming to halt subsidence altogether, might have a positive economic rationale.

scholarly journals A cost-benefit analysis of GPU-based EC2 instances for a deep learning algorithm

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eva Malta ◽  
Charles Rodamilans ◽  
Sandra Avila ◽  
Edson Borin
Keyword(s):  
Deep Learning ◽  
Virtual Machine ◽  
Learning Algorithm ◽  
Cost Benefit Analysis ◽  
Cost Benefit ◽  
Benefit Analysis ◽  
Machine Type ◽  
Deep Learning Algorithm ◽  
Batch Sizes ◽  
The Cost

This paper analyzes the cost-benefit of using EC2 instances, specif- ically the p2 and p3 virtual machine types, which have GPU accelerators, to execute a machine learning algorithm. This analysis includes the runtime of a convolutional neural network executions, and it takes into consideration the necessary time to stabilize the accuracy value with different batch sizes. Also, we measure the cost of using each machine type, and we define a relation be- tween this cost and the execution time for each virtual machine. The results show that, although the price per hour of the p3 instance is three times bigger, it is faster and costs almost the same as the p2 instance type to train the deep learning algorithm.

scholarly journals Cost-Benefit Analysis of Disaster Mitigation Infrastructure: The Case of Seawalls in Otsuchi, Japan

2016 ◽  
Vol 4 (3) ◽  
pp. 1-11
Author(s):  
Kimberly Burnett ◽  
◽  
Christopher Wada ◽  
Aiko Endo ◽  
Makoto Taniguchi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Cost Benefit Analysis ◽  
Cost Benefit ◽  
Disaster Mitigation ◽  
Benefit Analysis

scholarly journals Quantitative and Financial Aspects of Resilience Bonds in the Context of Recursive Insurance Contracts. A Cost Benefit Analysis

2020 ◽  
Vol 24 (3) ◽  
pp. 387-402
Author(s):  
Andrea Jonathan Pagano ◽  
Francesco Romagnoli ◽  
Emanuele Vannucci
Keyword(s):  
Cost Benefit Analysis ◽  
Risk Mitigation ◽  
Cost Benefit ◽  
Insurance Premium ◽  
Benefit Analysis ◽  
World Community ◽  
Catastrophe Bonds ◽  
Insurance Contracts ◽  
Climate Resilience ◽  
Heavy Damage

AbstractIt is now well known that the world community must share the risks and hazards deriving from climate change and, more generally, from the environment. At the end of summer 2019, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) issued the World’s first dedicated climate resilience bond and this confirms the thesis according to which financial, social and economic instruments are always most necessary for the development of society and to avoid that natural hazards can, as occurred in the past, cause extremely heavy damage with negative repercussions on every single area of a community. Starting from the characteristics of resilience bonds and reinsurance, the paper seeks to highlight the potential advantages that would derive from a systematic application of recursive contractual instruments (smart contracts). The authors focused on the study of the projection of financial and quantitative data of resilience and catastrophe bonds on the basis of a determined timeline, a fixed insurance premium, mitigation works related and connected to the main contract (insurance). In particular, the study concerns the correlation of the urban implementation of risk mitigation works with the specific catastrophic flood risk. The paper implements a purely economic and social cost-benefit analysis (ACB) in the sense that includes, among others, a public approach and the goal of maximizing social welfare, according to efficiency economic criteria. In a nutshell, the authors highlight as the main result not only the possibility, but also the convenience of the joint and multidisciplinary application of the quantitative method (resilience bonds) to infrastructure resilience.

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