scholarly journals Impact of Eurasian autumn snow on the winter North Atlantic Oscillation in seasonal forecasts of the 20th century

2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (4) ◽  
pp. 1245-1261
Author(s):  
Martin Wegmann ◽  
Yvan Orsolini ◽  
Antje Weisheimer ◽  
Bart van den Hurk ◽  
Gerrit Lohmann

Abstract. As the leading climate mode of wintertime climate variability over Europe, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) has been extensively studied over the last decades. Recently, studies highlighted the state of the Eurasian cryosphere as a possible predictor for the wintertime NAO. However, missing correlation between snow cover and wintertime NAO in climate model experiments and strong non-stationarity of this link in reanalysis data are questioning the causality of this relationship. Here we use the large ensemble of Atmospheric Seasonal Forecasts of the 20th Century (ASF-20C) with the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts model, focusing on the winter season. Besides the main 110-year ensemble of 51 members, we investigate a second, perturbed ensemble of 21 members where initial (November) land conditions over the Northern Hemisphere are swapped from neighboring years. The Eurasian snow–NAO linkage is examined in terms of a longitudinal snow depth dipole across Eurasia. Subsampling the perturbed forecast ensemble and contrasting members with high and low initial snow dipole conditions, we found that their composite difference indicates more negative NAO states in the following winter (DJF) after positive west-to-east snow depth gradients at the beginning of November. Surface and atmospheric forecast anomalies through the troposphere and stratosphere associated with the anomalous positive snow dipole consist of colder early winter surface temperatures over eastern Eurasia, an enhanced Ural ridge and increased vertical energy fluxes into the stratosphere, with a subsequent negative NAO-like signature in the troposphere. We thus confirm the existence of a causal connection between autumn snow patterns and subsequent winter circulation in the ASF-20C forecasting system.

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Martin Wegmann ◽  
Yvan Orsolini ◽  
Antje Weisheimer ◽  
Bart van den Hurk ◽  
Gerrit Lohmann

Abstract. As the leading climate mode of wintertime climate variability over Europe, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) has been extensively studied over the last decades. Recently, studies highlighted the state of the Eurasian cryosphere as a possible predictor for the wintertime NAO. However, missing correlation between snow cover and wintertime NAO in climate model experiments and strong non-stationarity of this link in reanalysis data is questioning the causality of this relationship. Here we use the large ensemble of Atmospheric Seasonal Forecasts of the 20th Century (ASF-20C) with the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts model, focusing on the winter season. Besides the main 110-year ensemble of 51 members, we investigate a second, perturbed ensemble of 21 members where initial (November) land conditions over the Northern Hemisphere are swapped from neighboring years. The Eurasian snow/NAO linkage is examined in terms of a longitudinal snow depth dipole across Eurasia. Subsampling the perturbed forecast ensemble and contrasting members with high and low initial snow dipole conditions, we found that their composite difference indicates more negative NAO states in the following winter (DJF) after positive west to east snow cover gradients at the beginning of November. Surface and atmospheric forecast anomalies through the troposphere and stratosphere associated with the anomalous positive snow dipole consist of colder early winter surface temperatures over Eastern Eurasia, an enhanced Ural ridge and increased vertical energy fluxes into the stratosphere, with a subsequent negative NAO-like signature in the troposphere. We thus confirm the existence of a causal connection between autumn snow patterns and subsequent winter circulation in the ASF-20C forecasting system.


2008 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
pp. 72-83 ◽  
Author(s):  
Adam A. Scaife ◽  
Chris K. Folland ◽  
Lisa V. Alexander ◽  
Anders Moberg ◽  
Jeff R. Knight

Abstract The authors estimate the change in extreme winter weather events over Europe that is due to a long-term change in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) such as that observed between the 1960s and 1990s. Using ensembles of simulations from a general circulation model, large changes in the frequency of 10th percentile temperature and 90th percentile precipitation events over Europe are found from changes in the NAO. In some cases, these changes are comparable to the expected change in the frequency of events due to anthropogenic forcing over the twenty-first century. Although the results presented here do not affect anthropogenic interpretation of global and annual mean changes in observed extremes, they do show that great care is needed to assess changes due to modes of climate variability when interpreting extreme events on regional and seasonal scales. How changes in natural modes of variability, such as the NAO, could radically alter current climate model predictions of changes in extreme weather events on multidecadal time scales is also discussed.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ivana Kolmašová ◽  
Kateřina Rosická ◽  
Ondřej Santolík

<p>The variability of winter climate in the North Atlantic region is predominantly driven by a large scale alternation of atmospheric masses between the Icelandic Low and Azores High pressure systems called the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and characterized by the NAO index. The calculation of the NAO index is based on the difference between sea-level pressure strengths of the Azores High and the Icelandic Low. Unusually high positive values of the NAO index were observed to manifest themselves by above-average precipitation and severe winter storms over British Isles and other parts of northwestern and northern Europe.</p><p>In the last two decades, the winter season 2014/2015 exhibited the highest positive monthly NAO indexes. During this winter, newspapers in the UK, Germany, Poland, and Scandinavia reported extremely strong storms which caused huge power outages, damages of buildings, and collapses of traffic which paralyzed the daily life. As winter thunderstorms are also characterized by a higher production of very energetic lightning, we use the World Wide Lightning Location Network (WWLLN) data and investigate properties of lightning which occurred in the north European region from October 2014 to March 2015.  The dataset consists of more than 90 thousand lightning detections. We focus on spatial and temporal distribution of lightning strokes, their energies and multiplicity.</p><p>We have found that the diurnal distribution of lightning was random from November till February, while the afternoon peak typical for summer storms was noticeable only in October and March. The median energy of lightning strokes observed in October, November and March reached only about 10-20% of the median energy of strokes detected in December, January and February. The most energetic strokes were concentrated above the ocean close to the western coastal areas and appeared exclusively at night and in the morning hours.</p>


2015 ◽  
Vol 15 (9) ◽  
pp. 2069-2077 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. Burić ◽  
J. Luković ◽  
B. Bajat ◽  
M. Kilibarda ◽  
N. Živković

Abstract. More intense rainfall may cause a range of negative impacts upon society and the environment. In this study we analysed trends in extreme ETCCDI (Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices) rainfall indices in Montenegro for the period between 1951 and 2010. Montenegro has been poorly studied in terms of rainfall extremes, yet it contains the wettest Mediterranean region known as Krivošije. Several indices of precipitation extremes were assessed including the number of dry days and rainfall totals in order to identify trends and possible changes. A spatial pattern relationship between extreme rainfall indices and the North Atlantic Oscillation has also been examined. The results generally suggest that the number of days with precipitation decreased while rainfall intensity increased, particularly in south-western parts of the country. A slight tendency towards intense rainfall events is suggested. The examined rainfall indices and North Atlantic Oscillation over Montenegro seemed to be directly linked to changes in one of the major large-scale circulation modes such as the NAO pattern that is particularly evident during the winter season.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
André Düsterhus ◽  
Leonard Borchert ◽  
Vimal Koul ◽  
Holger Pohlmann ◽  
Sebastian Brune

<p>The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) has over the year a major influence on European weather. In many applications, being it in modern or paleo climate science, the NAO is assumed to varying in strength, but otherwise often understood as being a constant feature of the pressure system over the North Atlantic. In recent years investigations on the seasonal-predictability of the winter NAO has shown that the prediction skill is varying over time. This opens the question, why this is the case and how well models are able to represent the NAO in all its variability over the 20th century.</p><p>To investigate this further we take a look at a seasonal prediction of the NAO with the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM) seasonal prediction system, with 30 members over the 20th century. We analyse its dependence of prediction skill on various features of the NAO and the North Atlantic system, like the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability (AMV). As such we will demonstrate, that the NAO is a much less stable system over time as currently assumed and that models may not be in the position to predict its full variability appropriately.</p>


2016 ◽  
Vol 29 (22) ◽  
pp. 7977-7989 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hiroyuki Murakami ◽  
Gabriel A. Vecchi ◽  
Gabriele Villarini ◽  
Thomas L. Delworth ◽  
Richard Gudgel ◽  
...  

Abstract Skillful seasonal forecasting of tropical cyclone (TC; wind speed ≥17.5 m s−1) activity is challenging, even more so when the focus is on major hurricanes (wind speed ≥49.4 m s−1), the most intense hurricanes (category 4 and 5; wind speed ≥58.1 m s–1), and landfalling TCs. This study shows that a 25-km-resolution global climate model [High-Resolution Forecast-Oriented Low Ocean Resolution (FLOR) model (HiFLOR)] developed at the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) has improved skill in predicting the frequencies of major hurricanes and category 4 and 5 hurricanes in the North Atlantic as well as landfalling TCs over the United States and Caribbean islands a few months in advance, relative to its 50-km-resolution predecessor climate model (FLOR). HiFLOR also shows significant skill in predicting category 4 and 5 hurricanes in the western North Pacific and eastern North Pacific, while both models show comparable skills in predicting basin-total and landfalling TC frequency in the basins. The improved skillful forecasts of basin-total TCs, major hurricanes, and category 4 and 5 hurricane activity in the North Atlantic by HiFLOR are obtained mainly by improved representation of the TCs and their response to climate from the increased horizontal resolution rather than by improvements in large-scale parameters.


2011 ◽  
Vol 42 (1) ◽  
pp. 30-39 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dariusz Wrzesiński ◽  
Rafał Paluszkiewicz

The article presents regional differences in the impact that the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) exerts on the flow of European rivers. The impact is determined by temporal variations in the strength of relations expressed by coefficients of correlation between monthly or seasonal NAO indices and discharges recorded at 510 river profiles. The results of the correlation analysis were arranged using Ward’s method of hierarchical grouping. The classification of river profiles thus obtained made it possible to distinguish seven regions differing in the nature of the dependence between streamflow and the intensity of the NAO. The most statistically significant positive correlations are displayed by the rivers of Fennoscandia, Denmark and the northwest part of the British Isles in the winter period, while the most significant negative correlations (also in winter) are recorded for streams of the Mediterranean Basin, western France and the southeast of England. In the southeast part of the Baltic Sea drainage basin, significant positive correlations of streamflow with the NAO indices can be observed in the winter season and negative correlations are observed in spring.


2009 ◽  
Vol 22 (2) ◽  
pp. 364-380 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hai Lin ◽  
Gilbert Brunet ◽  
Jacques Derome

Abstract Based on the bivariate Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) index defined by Wheeler and Hendon and 25 yr (1979–2004) of pentad data, the association between the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the MJO on the intraseasonal time scale during the Northern Hemisphere winter season is analyzed. Time-lagged composites and probability analysis of the NAO index for different phases of the MJO reveal a statistically significant two-way connection between the NAO and the tropical convection of the MJO. A significant increase of the NAO amplitude happens about 5–15 days after the MJO-related convection anomaly reaches the tropical Indian Ocean and western Pacific region. The development of the NAO is associated with a Rossby wave train in the upstream Pacific and North American region. In the Atlantic and African sector, there is an extratropical influence on the tropical intraseasonal variability. Certain phases of the MJO are preceded by the occurrence of strong NAOs. A significant change of upper zonal wind in the tropical Atlantic is caused by a modulated transient westerly momentum flux convergence associated with the NAO.


2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 45
Author(s):  
Graciela González ◽  
Amílcar Calzada ◽  
Alejandro Rodríguez

There have been several advances in understanding the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), but there are still uncertainties regarding its level of influence on the tropical climate. That is why this work determines the influence of the NAO on the main hydrometeorological events that affected Cuba in the 1999–2016 period. To comply with this, a regression analysis is carried out in the CurveExpert software where the combined influence of the NAO and El Niño-Southern Oscillation on hydrometeorological events is also examined. It was found that the NAO exerts a greater influence on Cuba when it is in its negative phase during the winter season.


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