A STATISTICAL MODEL OF WINTER/SPRING POLAR OZONE

2021 ◽  
pp. 16-24
Author(s):  
N. S. Ivanova ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Statistical Analysis ◽  
Statistical Model ◽  
Zonal Wind ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Satellite Measurements ◽  
Latitude Zone ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Polar Ozone

Satellite measurements provided by NASA (USA) at http://ozonewatch.gsfc.nasa.gov are used to study the variability and interdependence of polar ozone, polar temperature, and mean zonal wind. A model of winter/spring polar ozone in the Arctic and Antarctic is constructed using data on polar temperatures at 30, 70, and 100 hPa levels and mean zonal wind at 10 and 70 hPa levels in the latitude zone of 45°-75°. The results of the statistical analysis of the 1979-2020 polar ozone calculation errors are presented.

scholarly journals Persistence of upper stratospheric wintertime tracer variability into the Arctic spring and summer

2016 ◽  
Vol 16 (12) ◽  
pp. 7957-7967 ◽  
Author(s):  
David E. Siskind ◽  
Gerald E. Nedoluha ◽  
Fabrizio Sassi ◽  
Pingping Rong ◽  
Scott M. Bailey ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
The Arctic ◽  
Solar Occultation ◽  
Chlorine Monoxide ◽  
Reservoir Species ◽  
Ozone Trends ◽  
Transport And Mixing ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Atomic Chlorine ◽  
Polar Ozone

Abstract. Using data from the Aeronomy of Ice in the Mesosphere (AIM) and Aura satellites, we have categorized the interannual variability of winter- and springtime upper stratospheric methane (CH4). We further show the effects of this variability on the chemistry of the upper stratosphere throughout the following summer. Years with strong wintertime mesospheric descent followed by dynamically quiet springs, such as 2009, lead to the lowest summertime CH4. Years with relatively weak wintertime descent, but strong springtime planetary wave activity, such as 2011, have the highest summertime CH4. By sampling the Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) according to the occultation pattern of the AIM Solar Occultation for Ice Experiment (SOFIE), we show that summertime upper stratospheric chlorine monoxide (ClO) almost perfectly anticorrelates with the CH4. This is consistent with the reaction of atomic chlorine with CH4 to form the reservoir species, hydrochloric acid (HCl). The summertime ClO for years with strong, uninterrupted mesospheric descent is about 50 % greater than in years with strong horizontal transport and mixing of high CH4 air from lower latitudes. Small, but persistent effects on ozone are also seen such that between 1 and 2 hPa, ozone is about 4–5 % higher in summer for the years with the highest CH4 relative to the lowest. This is consistent with the role of the chlorine catalytic cycle on ozone. These dependencies may offer a means to monitor dynamical effects on the high-latitude upper stratosphere using summertime ClO measurements as a proxy. Additionally, these chlorine-controlled ozone decreases, which are seen to maximize after years with strong uninterrupted wintertime descent, represent a new mechanism by which mesospheric descent can affect polar ozone. Finally, given that the effects on ozone appear to persist much of the rest of the year, the consideration of winter/spring dynamical variability may also be relevant in studies of ozone trends.

scholarly journals Persistence of upper stratospheric winter time tracer variability into the Arctic spring and summer

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
David E. Siskind ◽  
Gerald E. Nedoluha ◽  
Fabrizio Sassi ◽  
Pingping Rong ◽  
Scott M. Bailey ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
The Arctic ◽  
Solar Occultation ◽  
Reservoir Species ◽  
Ozone Trends ◽  
Transport And Mixing ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Winter Time ◽  
Atomic Chlorine ◽  
Polar Ozone

Abstract. Using data from the Aeronomy of Ice in the Mesosphere (AIM) and the Aura satellites, we have categorized the interannual variability of winter and spring time upper stratospheric CH4. We further show the effects of this variability on the chemistry of the upper stratosphere throughout the following summer. Years with strong mesospheric descent followed by dynamically quiet springs, such as 2009, lead to the lowest summertime CH4. Years with relatively weak descent, but strong springtime planetary wave activity, such as 2011, have the highest summertime CH4. By sampling the Aura Microwave Limb Sounder according to the occultation pattern of the AIM Solar Occultation for Ice Experiment, we show that summertime upper stratospheric ClO almost perfectly anticorrelates with the CH4. This is consistent with the reaction of atomic chlorine with CH4 to form the reservoir species, HCl. The summertime ClO for years with strong, uninterrupted mesospheric descent is about 50 % greater than in years with strong horizontal transport and mixing of high CH4 air from lower latitudes. Small, but persistent effects on ozone are also seen such that between 1–2 hPa, ozone is about 4–5 % higher in summer for the years with the highest CH4 relative to the lowest. This is consistent with the role of the chlorine catalytic cycle on ozone. These dependencies may offer a means to monitor dynamical effects on the high latitude upper stratosphere using summertime ClO measurements as a proxy. Also, these chlorine controlled ozone decreases, which are seen to maximize after years with strong uninterrupted wintertime descent, represent a new mechanism by which mesosospheric descent can affect polar ozone. Finally, given that the effects on ozone appear to persist much of the rest of the year, the consideration of winter/spring dynamical variability may also be relevant in studies of ozone trends.

scholarly journals Winter 2018 major sudden stratospheric warming impact on midlatitude mesosphere from microwave radiometer measurements

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yuke Wang ◽  
Valery Shulga ◽  
Gennadi Milinevsky ◽  
Aleksey Patoka ◽  
Oleksandr Evtushevsky ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Zonal Wind ◽  
Geopotential Height ◽  
Microwave Radiometer ◽  
Recovery Phase ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Stratospheric Warming ◽  
Sudden Stratospheric Warming ◽  
Easterly Wind ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Midlatitude Mesosphere

Abstract. The impact of a major sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) in the Arctic in February 2018 on the mid-latitude mesosphere was investigated by performing microwave radiometer measurements of carbon monoxide (CO) and zonal wind above Kharkiv, Ukraine (50.0° N, 36.3° E). The mesospheric peculiarities of this SSW event were observed using recently designed and installed microwave radiometer in East Europe for the first time. The data from the ERA-Interim and NCEP–NCAR reanalyses, as well as the Aura Microwave Limb Sounder measurements, have been also used. Microwave observations of the daily CO profiles in January–March 2018 allowed retrieving mesospheric zonal wind at 70–85 km (below the winter mesopause) over the Kharkiv site. The reverse of the mesospheric westerly from about 10 m s−1 to the easterly wind of about −10 m s−1 around 10 February has been registered. Local microwave observations in the NH midlatitudes combined with reanalysis data show wide ranges of daily variability in CO, zonal wind, temperature and geopotential height in the mesosphere and stratosphere during the SSW 2018. Oscillations in the vertical CO profile, zonal wind, and geopotential height during the SSW, stratopause disappearance after the SSW onset and strong CO and westerly wind peaks at the start of the SSW recovery phase have been observed. The observed CO variability can be explained by vertical and horizontal air mass redistribution due to planetary wave activity with the replacement of the CO-rich air by CO-poor air and vice versa, in agreement with other studies. The results of microwave measurements of CO and zonal wind in the midlatitude mesosphere at 70–85 km altitudes, which still is not adequately covered by ground-based observations, are useful for improving our understanding of the SSW impacts in this region.

scholarly journals Tropospheric BrO column densities in the Arctic derived from satellite: retrieval and comparison to ground-based measurements

2012 ◽  
Vol 5 (11) ◽  
pp. 2779-2807 ◽  
Author(s):  
H. Sihler ◽  
U. Platt ◽  
S. Beirle ◽  
T. Marbach ◽  
S. Kühl ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Boundary Layer ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Trace Gas ◽  
Natural Phenomenon ◽  
Satellite Measurements ◽  
Surface Layers ◽  
Vertical Column ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
The Vertical Distribution ◽  
Good Agreement

Abstract. During polar spring, halogen radicals like bromine monoxide (BrO) play an important role in the chemistry of tropospheric ozone destruction. Satellite measurements of the BrO distribution have become a particularly useful tool to investigate this probably natural phenomenon, but the separation of stratospheric and tropospheric partial columns of BrO is challenging. In this study, an algorithm was developed to retrieve tropospheric vertical column densities of BrO from data of high-resolution spectroscopic satellite instruments such as the second Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment (GOME-2). Unlike recently published approaches, the presented algorithm is capable of separating the fraction of BrO in the activated troposphere from the total BrO column solely based on remotely measured properties. The presented algorithm furthermore allows to estimate a realistic measurement error of the tropospheric BrO column. The sensitivity of each satellite pixel to BrO in the boundary layer is quantified using the measured UV radiance and the column density of the oxygen collision complex O4. A comparison of the sensitivities with CALIPSO LIDAR observations demonstrates that clouds shielding near-surface trace-gas columns can be reliably detected even over ice and snow. Retrieved tropospheric BrO columns are then compared to ground-based BrO measurements from two Arctic field campaigns in the Amundsen Gulf and at Barrow in 2008 and 2009, respectively. Our algorithm was found to be capable of retrieving enhanced near-surface BrO during both campaigns in good agreement with ground-based data. Some differences between ground-based and satellite measurements observed at Barrow can be explained by both elevated and shallow surface layers of BrO. The observations strongly suggest that surface release processes are the dominating source of BrO and that boundary layer meteorology influences the vertical distribution.

scholarly journals What is Your Estimand? Defining the Target Quantity Connects Statistical Evidence to Theory

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ian Lundberg ◽  
Rebecca Johnson ◽  
Brandon Stewart
Keyword(s):  
Statistical Analysis ◽  
Statistical Model ◽  
Quantitative Study ◽  
Statistical Evidence ◽  
Similar Degree ◽  
Research Practice

We make only one point in this article. Every quantitative study must be able to answer the question: what is your estimand? The estimand is the target quantity—the purpose of the statistical analysis. Much attention is already placed on how to do estimation; a similar degree of care should be given to defining the thing we are estimating. We advocate that authors state the central quantity of each analysis—the theoretical estimand—in precise terms that exist outside of any statistical model. In our framework, researchers do three things: (1) set a theoretical estimand, clearly connecting this quantity to theory, (2) link to an empirical estimand, which is informative about the theoretical estimand under some identification assumptions, and (3) learn from data. Adding precise estimands to research practice expands the space of theoretical questions, unlocks new tools with which to answer them, and heightens clarity about the link between theory and evidence.

scholarly journals Optimal ash particle refractive index model for simulating the brightness temperature spectrum of volcanic ash clouds from satellite infrared sounder measurements

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hiroshi Ishimoto ◽  
Masahiro Hayashi ◽  
Yuzo Mano
Keyword(s):  
Refractive Index ◽  
Brightness Temperature ◽  
Volcanic Ash ◽  
Satellite Measurements ◽  
Temperature Spectrum ◽  
Index Model ◽  
Rock Types ◽  
Volcanic Events ◽  
Atmospheric Sounding ◽  
Using Data

Abstract. Using data from the Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI) measurements of volcanic ash clouds and radiative transfer calculations, we identify the optimal refractive index model for simulating the measured brightness temperature spectrum of volcanic ash material. We assume that the optimal refractive index model has the smallest root mean square of the brightness temperature difference between measurements and simulations for channels in the wavenumber range of 750–1400 cm−1 and compare 21 refractive index models for optical properties of ash particles, including recently published models. From the results of numerical simulations for 164 pixels of IASI measurements for ash clouds from 11 volcanoes, we found that the measured brightness temperature spectrum could be well simulated using certain newly established refractive index models. In the cases of Eyjafjallajökull and Grímsvötn ash clouds, the optimal refractive index models determined through numerical simulation correspond to those deduced from the chemical composition of ash samples for the same volcanic eruption events. This finding suggests that infrared sounder measurement of volcanic ash clouds is an effective approach to estimating the optimal refractive index model. However, discrepancies between the estimated refractive index models based on satellite measurements and the associated volcanic rock types were observed for some volcanic events.

scholarly journals Volatility of Jakarta Islamic Index

2014 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 207-222
Author(s):  
Hendri Tanjung
Keyword(s):  
Statistical Analysis ◽  
Normal Distribution ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Daily Data ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Simple Statistical Analysis

Volatility of Jakarta Islamic Index. This study investigates the volatility of Jakarta Islamic Index (JII) in Jakarta Stock Exchange. The method that used in this research is used a simple statistical analysis. The normality of JII return is analyzed to answer whether the return of JII follows normal distribution. By using data of Jakarta Islamic Index from 2nd March 2009 to 30th October 2013 (1122 daily data), it is found that the distribution of return of JII is not normal, even the 5 sigma occurred. This means the return of Jakarta Islamic Index is much volatile than the theory predicted. This will make too much gain or loss in one day in the economy  DOI:10.15408/aiq.v6i2.1231

scholarly journals Winter 2018 major sudden stratospheric warming impact on midlatitude mesosphere from microwave radiometer measurements

2019 ◽  
Vol 19 (15) ◽  
pp. 10303-10317 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yuke Wang ◽  
Valerii Shulga ◽  
Gennadi Milinevsky ◽  
Aleksey Patoka ◽  
Oleksandr Evtushevsky ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Zonal Wind ◽  
Microwave Radiometer ◽  
Polar Vortex ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Stratospheric Warming ◽  
Sudden Stratospheric Warming ◽  
Time Data ◽  
Easterly Wind ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Midlatitude Mesosphere

Abstract. The impact of a major sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) in the Arctic in February 2018 on the midlatitude mesosphere is investigated by performing the microwave radiometer measurements of carbon monoxide (CO) and zonal wind above Kharkiv, Ukraine (50.0∘ N, 36.3∘ E). The mesospheric peculiarities of this SSW event were observed using a recently designed and installed microwave radiometer in eastern Europe for the first time. Data from the ERA-Interim and MERRA-2 reanalyses, as well as the Aura microwave limb sounder measurements, are also used. Microwave observations of the daily CO profiles in January–March 2018 allowed for the retrieval of mesospheric zonal wind at 70–85 km (below the winter mesopause) over the Kharkiv site. Reversal of the mesospheric westerly from about 10 m s−1 to an easterly wind of about −10 m s−1 around 10 February was observed. The local microwave observations at our Northern Hemisphere (NH) midlatitude site combined with reanalysis data show wide-ranging daily variability in CO, zonal wind, and temperature in the mesosphere and stratosphere during the SSW of 2018. The observed local CO variability can be explained mainly by horizontal air mass redistribution due to planetary wave activity. Replacement of the CO-rich polar vortex air by CO-poor air of the surrounding area led to a significant mesospheric CO decrease over the station during the SSW and fragmentation of the vortex over the station at the SSW start caused enhanced stratospheric CO at about 30 km. The results of microwave measurements of CO and zonal wind in the midlatitude mesosphere at 70–85 km altitudes, which still are not adequately covered by ground-based observations, are useful for improving our understanding of the SSW impacts in this region.

scholarly journals A parameter model of gas exchange for the seasonal sea ice zone

Ocean Science ◽  
2014 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 17-28 ◽  
Author(s):  
B. Loose ◽  
W. R. McGillis ◽  
D. Perovich ◽  
C. J. Zappa ◽  
P. Schlosser
Keyword(s):  
Boundary Layer ◽  
Gas Exchange ◽  
Sea Ice ◽  
Open Water ◽  
Field Studies ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Gas Transfer ◽  
Transfer Velocity ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Effective Transfer

Abstract. Carbon budgets for the polar oceans require better constraint on air–sea gas exchange in the sea ice zone (SIZ). Here, we utilize advances in the theory of turbulence, mixing and air–sea flux in the ice–ocean boundary layer (IOBL) to formulate a simple model for gas exchange when the surface ocean is partially covered by sea ice. The gas transfer velocity (k) is related to shear-driven and convection-driven turbulence in the aqueous mass boundary layer, and to the mean-squared wave slope at the air–sea interface. We use the model to estimate k along the drift track of ice-tethered profilers (ITPs) in the Arctic. Individual estimates of daily-averaged k from ITP drifts ranged between 1.1 and 22 m d−1, and the fraction of open water (f) ranged from 0 to 0.83. Converted to area-weighted effective transfer velocities (keff), the minimum value of keff was 10−55 m d−1 near f = 0 with values exceeding keff = 5 m d−1 at f = 0.4. The model indicates that effects from shear and convection in the sea ice zone contribute an additional 40% to the magnitude of keff, beyond what would be predicted from an estimate of keff based solely upon a wind speed parameterization. Although the ultimate scaling relationship for gas exchange in the sea ice zone will require validation in laboratory and field studies, the basic parameter model described here demonstrates that it is feasible to formulate estimates of k based upon properties of the IOBL using data sources that presently exist.

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