scholarly journals IMPLICATIONS OF MACRO-ECONOMIC VARIABLES FOR NATIONAL FOOD SECURITY IN NIGERIA

2020 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-11
Author(s):  
E. E. Osuji ◽  
A. Tim-Ashama ◽  
M. O. Okwara ◽  
J. A. L. Effiong ◽  
U. G. Anyanwu

In recent time, the impact of macro-economic variables on agriculture has become an issue of concern in terms of securing adequate food supply for the populace. This study evaluated the implications of macro-economic variables for national food security in Nigeria. This study made use of time series data sourced from the publications of Central Bank of Nigeria Annual Reports, Statistical Bulletins and the National Bureau of Statistics spanning from 1995 to 2015. The Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) co-integration test with Error Correction Model (ECM) was adopted to substantiate the implications of these macro-economic variables. The results of the Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) test showed that Food security, Interest rate, Exchange rate, Net export and Government expenditures were non stationary at their respective level forms and became stationary at first difference. While Inflation and Money supply were found to be stationary at level form. ARDL bounds test for co-integration confirms the existence of long run relationship between the variables. The results of long run and short run relationships shows that Interest rate, Inflation, Government expenditures and Money supply were both significant at 5% and 1% levels indicating that these variables had a significant impact on food security. The estimated error correction coefficient of -0.7996 is highly significant, has the correct sign, and implies a fairly high speed of adjustment to equilibrium after a shock. However, these findings recommend farmers in Nigeria to take good advantage of the linkages between macroeconomic variables and agricultural productivity, as this useful information can assist them to boost their land productivity, hence increased food security at all times. Osuji, E. E. | Department of Agricultural Economics, Michael Okpara University of Agriculture Umudike (MOUAU), Abia State, Nigeria

2021 ◽  
Vol 4 (3) ◽  
pp. 185-198
Author(s):  
Okosu Napoleon David

The study interrogates the impact of exchange rate on the economic growth of Nigeria from 1981 to 2020 using quarterly time-series data from the Central Bank of Nigeria and the World Bank National Account. The dependent variable in the model was Real Gross Domestic Product (RGDP), and the independent variables were Exchange Rate (EXCHR), inflation (INFL), Interest Rate (INTR), Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), Broad Money Supply (M2) and Current Account Balance of Payment (CAB). The methodology employed was the Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model which incorporates the Cointegration Bond test and Error-Correction Mechanism. The finding indicates that in the short run, EXCHR, CAB, M2 and FDI, had a positive impact on economic growth. The impact of EXCHR and CAB were significant on growth while that of M2 and FDI were insignificant to growth. However, INTR and INFL had a negative impact on economic growth with both variables being statistically significant. The bound test showed that there was a long-run relationship among the study variables, and the results from the long run reveal that the exchange rate has a positive and significant impact on economic growth. Inflation, Interest rate, FDI, Current Account Balance of Payment (CAB) and Broad Money Supply all have a positive and significant impact on economic growth. Based on the findings the study recommended that monetary authority should strictly monitor the operations of banks and other forex dealers with a view of ensuring unethical practices are adequately sanctioned to serve as a deterrent to others.


2017 ◽  
Vol 15 (3) ◽  
pp. 416
Author(s):  
Azhar Bafadal

This research aimed to study the impact of monetary policy on the rupiah stability. Variables used were the interest rate of Bank Indonesia Certificate (SBI), the rate of inflation (IHK), the exchange rate of rupiah against the US dollar (Kurs) and the money supply in the narrow sense (M1). Data used were of quarterly time series data of Bank Indonesia and Central Bureau of Statistic, covering 2002.1-2010.4. The analysis was undertaken by using a vector autoregression model (VAR), through the Impulse Response Function (IRF) and Forecast error variance decomposition (FEVD). The research results showed that in the sort run shocks of SBI  decreased the inflation rate, and in the long run the inflation rate was constant. The exchange rate tended to be appreciated in the short run and long run although in a small magnitude. Money supply decreased with a minor fluctuation. Initially, the money supply shocks increased the interest rate of SBI, but decreased in the long run. The rate of inflation fluctuated in the sort run but it was constant in the long run. The exchange rate was depreciated both in the sort run and in the long run.


2018 ◽  
Vol 15 (3) ◽  
pp. 416-433
Author(s):  
Azhar Bafadal

This research aimed to study the impact of monetary policy on the rupiah stability. Variables used were the interest rate of Bank Indonesia Certificate (SBI), the rate of inflation (IHK), the exchange rate of rupiah against the US dollar (Kurs) and the money supply in the narrow sense (M1). Data used were of quarterly time series data of Bank Indonesia and Central Bureau of Statistic, covering 2002.1-2010.4. The analysis was undertaken by using a vector autoregression model (VAR), through the Impulse Response Function (IRF) and Forecast error variance decomposition (FEVD). The research results showed that in the sort run shocks of SBI  decreased the inflation rate, and in the long run the inflation rate was constant. The exchange rate tended to be appreciated in the short run and long run although in a small magnitude. Money supply decreased with a minor fluctuation. Initially, the money supply shocks increased the interest rate of SBI, but decreased in the long run. The rate of inflation fluctuated in the sort run but it was constant in the long run. The exchange rate was depreciated both in the sort run and in the long run.


2020 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 56-65
Author(s):  
Bhim Prasad Panta

Background: Stock market plays a crucial role in the financial system of a country. It can be viewed as a channel through which resources are properly channelized. It enables the governments and industry to raise long-term capital for financing new projects. The stock markets of developing economies are likely to be sensitive to various macro-economic factors such as GDP, imports, exports, exchange rates etc., when there is high demand on financial products, as a constituent of financial market, ultimately stock market needs to develop. Many factors can be a signal to stock market participants to expect a higher or lower return when investing in stock and one of these factors are macroeconomic variables and thus, macro-economic variables tend to effect on stock market development. Objective: This study examines the linkage between stock market prices (NEPSE index) and five macro-economic variables, namely; real GDP, broad money supply, interest rate, inflation, and exchange rate using ARDL model and to explain the behavior of the Nepal Stock Exchange Index. Methods: The ECM which is delivered from ARDL model through simple linear transformation to integrate short run adjustments with long run equilibrium without losing long run information. The analysis has been done by using 25 years' annual data from 1994 to 2019. Findings: The result suggests that the fluctuation of Nepse Index in long run is strongly associated with broad money supply, interest rate, inflation, and exchange rate. Conclusion: Though Nepalese stock market is in primitive stage, broad money supply, interest rate, inflation and exchange rate are major factors affecting stock market price of Nepal. So, policies and strategies should be made and directed taking these in to consideration. Implication: The findings of research can be helpful to understand the behavior of Nepalese stock market and develop policies for market stabilization.


2014 ◽  
Vol 2 (11) ◽  
pp. 164-183
Author(s):  
B.O Osuka ◽  
Achinihu Joy Chioma

This study examined the impact of budget deficits on macro-economic variables in the Nigerian economy for theperiod 1981-2012. This study sought to find out if there is a long-run relationship between budget deficits and other macro-economic variables in Nigeria. The study used the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) methods for finding out the presence of unit root in all variables and found that they are stationary at first differencing; they are 1(1). We also used Johansen Cointegration test to check for the cointegration of the variables and found that the variables in the study are all cointegrated of order one showing the presence of long-run relationship between budget deficits and our selected macro-economic variables ( GDP, interest rate, nominal exchange rate and inflation rate). The Granger Causality results reveal that there is a uni-directional Granger-causality between Budget deficits and GDP with GDP granger causing budget deficit. However, the test for causality showed that there exists no causality between deficits and interest rate, budget deficits and inflation and budget deficit and nominal exchange rate. We thereby concluded that budget deficits exert significant impact on the macro-economic performance of the Nigerian economy. The study recommend that since budget deficits could crowd-in investment through its reducing effects in interest rate, but emphasis should be placed on capital goods expenditure to make it have positive effect on GDP and thereby contribute to economic growth and development.


Author(s):  
Erni Panca Kurniasih

ABSTRACTThe development of investment and exports in Indonesia shows an increase, as well as money supply, while the inflation rate shows a decline, but this is not always followed by increasing economic growth. This study aims to explain the relationship between investment, export, money supply and inflation with the economic growth in Indonesia. The data used was time series data from the first quarter in 2001 to the fourth quarter in 2014 and was analyzed using multiple regression models with Error Correction Model (ECM) and classical assumptions. The study findings show that in short-term investment, export, money supply and inflation are not significant to economic growth. In long-run, investment has negative and significant effect on the economic growth, while export, money supply and inflation have positive and significant effect on the economic growth in Indonesia. Bank Indonesia must applied a tight money policy consistently to achieve the long-term inflation target ABSTRAKPerkembangan investasi dan ekspor di Indonesia menunjukkan peningkatan, demikian pula jumlah uang beredar, sementara tingkat inflasi menunjukkan penurunan, namun hal tersebut tidak selalu diikuti dengan meningkatnya pertumbuhan ekonomi. Studi ini bertujuan untuk menjelaskan hubungan antara investasi, ekspor neto, jumlah uang beredar dan inflasi terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi di Indonesia. Data yang digunakan adalah data time series dari kuartal pertama tahun 2001 hingga kuartal keempat tahun 2014 dan dianalisa dengan menggunakan model regresi berganda dengan Error Correction Model (ECM). Hasil studi menunjukkan  bahwa investasi, ekspor, jumlah uang beredar dan inflasi tidak signifikan terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi di Indonesia dalam jangka pendek. Investasi berpengaruh negatif dan signifikan terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi di Indonesia dalam jangka panjang, sedangkan ekspor , jumlah uang beredar dan inflasi berpengaruh positif dan  signifikan terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi di Indonesia. Bank Indonesia harus menerapkan kebijakan moneter yang ketat secara konsisten pada pencapaian sasaran inflasi jangka menenngah 


2016 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 87-103 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ritu Rani ◽  
Naresh Kumar

Fiscal deficit above a certain limit is not good for the country because high government borrowings raise the interest rate and crowd out private investment. This article is an attempt to analyze the impact of fiscal deficit on real interest rate in India over the time period of 1980–1981 to 2013–2014. Autoregressive distributed lags bound testing approach for cointegration and vector error correction model for Granger casualty are used in a multivariate framework in which money supply and inflation are included as additional variables. Bound test results confirm the long-run equilibrium relationship among the competing variables. Further, the rate of interest and fiscal deficit are positively related with each other in long run, whereas money supply and inflation are found to be negative and statistical significant. In addition, results of vector error correction model showed that there is unidirectional causality running from inflation to real interest rate in short run. Based on the findings, it is suggested that that proper fiscal consolidation is required to control high fiscal deficit and burgeoning interest rate in India. Further, government should move from market borrowing to tax revenue to offset fiscal deficit.


Author(s):  
Abdulkarim Musa ◽  
◽  
Uwaleke Uche ◽  
Nwala Nneka ◽  
◽  
...  

This study empirically examines the impact of monetary policy targetson capital market development in Nigeria from 1986-2018. Time series data and econometric tools were used to test for the stationarity and causality effect. The Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag Model (ARDL) and Error Correction Model (ECM) techniques were used to examine the short-run and long-run impact and relationship between Monetary Policy and Capital Market Development in Nigeria. The study revealed that both in the long run and short run Exchange Rate (EXCHR), Inflation Rate (INFR), and Interest Rate in Nigeria (INTR)were negatively related to Capital Market Development (CAMKTD) in Nigeria and they were statistically insignificant in explaining changes in Capital Market Development (CAMKTD) in Nigeria. On the other hand, inthe long run, Money Supply was positively related to Capital Market Development (CAMKTD) in Nigeria and was statistically significant at a 5% level significant while Money Supply (M2) was positively related to Capital Market Development (CAMKTD) in Nigeria both in the long run and short-run and was statistically significant at 5% level of significance. Therefore, the study recommends that government should improve the efficiency and effectiveness of the money supply in Nigeria since it was statistically significant in determining the improvement of Capital Market Development (CAMKTD) in Nigeria.


2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 111
Author(s):  
Peter Ubi ◽  
Ishaku Rimamtanung Nyiputen

This study comparatively examined the validity of the theory of uncovered interest rate parity (UIP) for Nigeria and United States of America (USA) and for Nigeria and China, using USA and China as anchor countries respectively. The study also examined the impact of the theory (UIP) on investment in Nigeria. Using annual time series data spanning from 1980-2017, the pre-estimation test (Augmented Dickey-Fuller Unit root test) was conducted. Given that the variables were integrated of order one and order zero, Autoregressive Distributed lag bound testing approach (ARDL) and Toda- Yamamoto causality test were employed for analysis. The ARDL result indicates that there is no long run relationship between Nigeria and USA but there is a long run relationship between Nigeria and China. By implication, the theory of UIP does not hold between Nigeria and USA but between Nigeria and China, the theory of UIP holds. Also, the result of Toda-Yamamoto indicates that the theory of UIP positively and significantly impacts on investment in Nigeria. The study recommended that the government should strengthen her economic relationship especially with China so as to encourage more investments by China in Nigeria.


Author(s):  
Nnamani, Vincent ◽  
Anyanwaokoro, Mike

The study investigated the implication of monetary policy rate on the exchange rate and interest rate in Nigeria, 1981-2017. Because of the above-stated problems, the specific objectives are to: Investigate the effect of monetary policy rate on the exchange rate in Nigeria, determine the effect of the monetary policy rate on interest rate in Nigeria. The analysis of error correction and autoregressive lags fully covers both long-run and short-run relationships of the variable under study. The statistical tool of analysis employed in the study is Autoregressive Distributed Lags (ARDL) and Philips Peron method of stationary testing and structural breakpoint unit root test., these methods were employed to check the stationarity and breakpoint analysis of the time series data employed in this study. The study observed that monetary policy rate has a positive and significant effect on the exchange rate in Nigeria. It was also observed that the monetary policy rate has a positive and significant effect on the interest rate in Nigeria. Overall, our results indicated that the impact of monetary policy on the exchange rate was significant. There was a positive and significant relationship between monetary policy variables and exchange rate. The conclusion that is drawn from our results is that monetary policy remains an effective and potent tool for ensuring a stable exchange rate in Nigeria. The study recommended that monetary policy should be used to create a favourable investment environment by facilitating the emergence of market-based interest rate and exchange rate regimes which could attract domestic and foreign investments. Second; the Central bank of Nigeria (CBN) need to avoid ordination and balance between monetary and fiscal policies to ensure the smooth realization of monetary policy goals. Policy inconsistency or summersault to determine its policy impact before contemplating a change. Finally, there should be a coo.


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