scholarly journals Modelling the impact of climate change on rice production in India

MAUSAM ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 52 (1) ◽  
pp. 263-274
Author(s):  
L. S. RATHORE ◽  
K. K. SINGH ◽  
S. A. SASEENDRAN ◽  
A. K. BAXLA
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
South India ◽  
Model Simulation ◽  
Indian Subcontinent ◽  
Central India ◽  
Ocean Model ◽  
Change Scenario ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Business As Usual ◽  
The Impact

The CERES-Rice crop simulation model, calibrated and validated for the    varieties PR106 in NW India. IR36 in central India and Jaya in south India, is used for  nalysing the effect of climate change on rice productivity in the country. Plausible climate change scenario for the Indian subcontinent as expected by the middle of the next century taking into account the projected emissions of greenhouse gases and sulphate aerosols, in a coupled atmosphere-ocean model experiment performed at Deutsches Klimarechenzentrum, Germany, is adopted for the study. The adopted scenario represented an increase in monsoon seasonal mean surface temperature of the order of about 1.5° C over the south India and 1°C over northwest and central India in the decade 2040-49 with respect to the 1980s and an increase in rainfall of the order of 2 mm per day over south India while the simulated decrease of the order about -1 mm and -1.5 mm over northwest and central India respectively. The IPCC Business-as-usual scenario projection of plant usable concentration of CO2 about 460 PPM by the middle fo the next century are also used in the crop model simulation (CERES - Rice V3 Model).   Simulation studies carried out with the climate change scenarios over different parts of the country are analysed and interpreted.

scholarly journals Assessing the Impact of Projected Climate Change on Zoo Visitation in Toronto (Canada)

2016 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 30 ◽  
Author(s):  
Micah J. Hewer ◽  
William A. Gough
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Change Scenario ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Local Climate ◽  
The Impact

Weather and climate have been widely recognised as having an important influence on tourism and recreational activities. However, the nature of these relationships varies depending on the type, timing and location of these activities. Climate change is expected to have considerable and diverse impacts on recreation and tourism. Nonetheless, the potential impact of climate change on zoo visitation has yet to be assessed in a scientific manner. This case study begins by establishing the baseline conditions and statistical relationship between weather and zoo visitation in Toronto, Canada. Regression analysis, relying on historical weather and visitation data, measured at the daily time scale, formed the basis for this analysis. Climate change projections relied on output produced by Global Climate Models (GCMs) for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s 2013 Fifth Assessment Report, ranked and selected using the herein defined Selective Ensemble Approach. This seasonal GCM output was then used to inform daily, local, climate change scenarios, generated using Statistical Down-Scaling Model Version 5.2. A series of seasonal models were then used to assess the impact of projected climate change on zoo visitation. While accounting for the negative effects of precipitation and extreme heat, the models suggested that annual visitation to the zoo will likely increase over the course of the 21st century due to projected climate change: from +8% in the 2020s to +18% by the 2080s, for the least change scenario; and from +8% in the 2020s to +34% in the 2080s, for the greatest change scenario. The majority of the positive impact of projected climate change on zoo visitation in Toronto will likely occur in the shoulder season (spring and fall); with only moderate increases in the off season (winter) and potentially negative impacts associated with the peak season (summer), especially if warming exceeds 3.5 °C.

scholarly journals The Impact of Climate Change on Changing Patten of Maize Diseases in Indian Subcontinent: A Review

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Meena Shekhar ◽  
Nirupma Singh
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Plant Pathogens ◽  
Indian Subcontinent ◽  
Central India ◽  
Warming Trend ◽  
Stress Factors ◽  
North India ◽  
Stalk Rot ◽  
Favorable Conditions ◽  
The Impact

Climate change influences the occurrence, prevalence, and severity of plant pathogens. Global temperatures are predicted to rise by 2–4°C due to human activities and increased market globalization, coupled with rising temperatures, leads to a situation favorable to pest movement and establishment. Maize is an important crop after wheat and rice. Changes in rainfall distribution and temperature may result in temporary excessive soil moisture or water logging or drought in some maize producing areas leading to alterations in biotic stress factors. In Indian subcontinent warming trend in climate along the west coast, central, interior peninsula and northeast regions creates favorable conditions for diseases in maize like sorghum downy mildew (SDM) and Turcicum leaf blight (TLB). The decreasing trend of monsoon, seasonal rainfall in North India, Central India, parts of Gujarat and Kerala is suitable for post flowering stalk-rot (PFSR) which is gaining importance in maize. The outcome for any host-pathogen interaction under changing climate is not readily predictable. This review assesses the potential effects of climate change on maize pathogens and consequently on plant health. The evidence assessed indicates that climate change has already expanded pathogen’s host range and geographical distribution increasing the risk of introduction of pathogens into new areas.

Flood Risk Characterization of Highly Flood-prone Data Scarce Region under Changing Climate

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aditya Gusain ◽  
Naveen Sudharsan ◽  
Subhankar Karmakar ◽  
Subimal Ghosh
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Extreme Events ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
Flood Hazard ◽  
Indian Subcontinent ◽  
Eastern Coast ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Changing Climate ◽  
Risk Framework ◽  
The Impact

<p>It is evident that changes in climate alter the incidence of hydro-climatic extreme events, specifically floods, which are likely to cause irreparable socio-economic and ecological damages. With a 7,516 km coastline that is prone to climate-mediated disturbances and cyclones, the eastern coast of the Indian subcontinent is comparatively more vulnerable to the changing climate and land use with higher incidences of extensive flooding. Therefore, the policy-makers and decision-making authorities are dependent on the scientific community to provide reliable estimates of hydro-meteorological variables for simulating extreme events under the impact of climate change. However, a comprehensive flood risk framework at a finer administrative level is not yet available under the Indian scenario that assesses the changing dynamics and complexities of different components of climatic risk (hazard, vulnerability, and exposure). The present study attempts to demonstrate a proposed framework of flood risk assessment for a highly flood-prone deltaic region of Mahanadi River Basin, India, under climate change scenarios for near-future (the 2040s) at present-day vulnerability and exposure status. It was noted that changes in future flood risk are highly influenced by the vulnerability and exposure status of the region. Lower vulnerability and exposure in coastal sub-districts reduces the overall risk even if a higher flood hazard is observed. Under both future scenarios, RCP 4.5 and 8.5, the number of villages under high hazard zones with greater flood magnitude has increased. Therefore, it thrusts upon the need to adopt stringent actions for devising better adaptation strategies and sustainable planning which can aid in lowering the vulnerability of the region to future floods.</p>

scholarly journals Urban Geometry Optimization to Mitigate Climate Change: Towards Energy-Efficient Buildings

2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 27
Author(s):  
Hatem Mahmoud ◽  
Ayman Ragab
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Heat Stress ◽  
Thermal Efficiency ◽  
Energy Demand ◽  
Building Blocks ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Urban Geometry ◽  
Outdoor Spaces ◽  
The Impact

The density of building blocks and insufficient greenery in cities tend to contribute dramatically not only to increased heat stress in the built environment but also to higher energy demand for cooling. Urban planners should, therefore, be conscious of their responsibility to reduce energy usage of buildings along with improving outdoor thermal efficiency. This study examines the impact of numerous proposed urban geometry cases on the thermal efficiency of outer spaces as well as the energy consumption of adjacent buildings under various climate change scenarios as representative concentration pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 climate projections for New Aswan city in 2035. The investigation was performed at one of the most underutilized outdoor spaces on the new campus of Aswan University in New Aswan city. The potential reduction of heat stress was investigated so as to improve the thermal comfort of the investigated outdoor spaces, as well as energy savings based on the proposed strategies. Accordingly, the most appropriate scenario to be adopted to cope with the inevitable climate change was identified. The proposed scenarios were divided into four categories of parameters. In the first category, shelters partially (25–50% and 75%) covering the streets were used. The second category proposed dividing the space parallel or perpendicular to the existing buildings. The third category was a hybrid scenario of the first and second categories. In the fourth category, a green cover of grass was added. A coupling evaluation was applied utilizing ENVI-met v4.2 and Design-Builder v4.5 to measure and improve the thermal efficiency of the outdoor space and reduce the cooling energy. The results demonstrated that it is better to cover outdoor spaces with 50% of the overall area than transform outdoor spaces into canyons.

scholarly journals Potential Impacts of Future Climate Change Scenarios on Ground Subsidence

Water ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 219 ◽  
Author(s):  
Antonio-Juan Collados-Lara ◽  
David Pulido-Velazquez ◽  
Rosa María Mateos ◽  
Pablo Ezquerro
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Subsidence ◽  
Ground Subsidence ◽  
Lower Percentage ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Fine Grained ◽  
Fine Grained Material ◽  
The Impact

In this work, we developed a new method to assess the impact of climate change (CC) scenarios on land subsidence related to groundwater level depletion in detrital aquifers. The main goal of this work was to propose a parsimonious approach that could be applied for any case study. We also evaluated the methodology in a case study, the Vega de Granada aquifer (southern Spain). Historical subsidence rates were estimated using remote sensing techniques (differential interferometric synthetic aperture radar, DInSAR). Local CC scenarios were generated by applying a bias correction approach. An equifeasible ensemble of the generated projections from different climatic models was also proposed. A simple water balance approach was applied to assess CC impacts on lumped global drawdowns due to future potential rainfall recharge and pumping. CC impacts were propagated to drawdowns within piezometers by applying the global delta change observed with the lumped assessment. Regression models were employed to estimate the impacts of these drawdowns in terms of land subsidence, as well as to analyze the influence of the fine-grained material in the aquifer. The results showed that a more linear behavior was observed for the cases with lower percentage of fine-grained material. The mean increase of the maximum subsidence rates in the considered wells for the future horizon (2016–2045) and the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenario 8.5 was 54%. The main advantage of the proposed method is its applicability in cases with limited information. It is also appropriate for the study of wide areas to identify potential hot spots where more exhaustive analyses should be performed. The method will allow sustainable adaptation strategies in vulnerable areas during drought-critical periods to be assessed.

scholarly journals Impact of an accelerated melting of Greenland on malaria distribution over Africa

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Alizée Chemison ◽  
Gilles Ramstein ◽  
Adrian M. Tompkins ◽  
Dimitri Defrance ◽  
Guigone Camus ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Malaria Transmission ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Transmission Risk ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Climate Change Risk ◽  
System A ◽  
Climate Simulations ◽  
The Impact

AbstractStudies about the impact of future climate change on diseases have mostly focused on standard Representative Concentration Pathway climate change scenarios. These scenarios do not account for the non-linear dynamics of the climate system. A rapid ice-sheet melting could occur, impacting climate and consequently societies. Here, we investigate the additional impact of a rapid ice-sheet melting of Greenland on climate and malaria transmission in Africa using several malaria models driven by Institute Pierre Simon Laplace climate simulations. Results reveal that our melting scenario could moderate the simulated increase in malaria risk over East Africa, due to cooling and drying effects, cause a largest decrease in malaria transmission risk over West Africa and drive malaria emergence in southern Africa associated with a significant southward shift of the African rain-belt. We argue that the effect of such ice-sheet melting should be investigated further in future public health and agriculture climate change risk assessments.

Selection of models to describe the temperature-dependent development of Neoleucinodes elegantalis (Lepidoptera: Crambidae) and its application to predict the species voltinism under future climate conditions

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-9
Author(s):  
Hevellyn Talissa dos Santos ◽  
Cesar Augusto Marchioro
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Linear Model ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Temperature Dependent ◽  
Dependent Development ◽  
Degree Day ◽  
Non Linear ◽  
The Impact

Abstract The small tomato borer, Neoleucinodes elegantalis (Guenée, 1854) is a multivoltine pest of tomato and other cultivated solanaceous plants. The knowledge on how N. elegantalis respond to temperature may help in the development of pest management strategies, and in the understanding of the effects of climate change on its voltinism. In this context, this study aimed to select models to describe the temperature-dependent development rate of N. elegantalis and apply the best models to evaluate the impacts of climate change on pest voltinism. Voltinism was estimated with the best fit non-linear model and the degree-day approach using future climate change scenarios representing intermediary and high greenhouse gas emission rates. Two out of the six models assessed showed a good fit to the observed data and accurately estimated the thermal thresholds of N. elegantalis. The degree-day and the non-linear model estimated more generations in the warmer regions and fewer generations in the colder areas, but differences of up to 41% between models were recorded mainly in the warmer regions. In general, both models predicted an increase in the voltinism of N. elegantalis in most of the study area, and this increase was more pronounced in the scenarios with high emission of greenhouse gases. The mathematical model (74.8%) and the location (9.8%) were the factors that mostly contributed to the observed variation in pest voltinism. Our findings highlight the impact of climate change on the voltinism of N. elegantalis and indicate that an increase in its population growth is expected in most regions of the study area.

scholarly journals Dynamic Downscaling of the Impact of Climate Change on the Ocean Circulation in the Galápagos Archipelago

2013 ◽  
Vol 2013 ◽  
pp. 1-18 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yanyun Liu ◽  
Lian Xie ◽  
John M. Morrison ◽  
Daniel Kamykowski
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Ocean Circulation ◽  
Global Climate Change ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Ocean Model ◽  
Reanalysis Dataset ◽  
Equatorial Undercurrent ◽  
Galapagos Archipelago ◽  
The Impact

The regional impact of global climate change on the ocean circulation around the Galápagos Archipelago is studied using the Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM) configured for a four-level nested domain system. The modeling system is validated and calibrated using daily atmospheric forcing derived from the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis dataset from 1951 to 2007. The potential impact of future anthropogenic global warming (AGW) in the Galápagos region is examined using the calibrated HYCOM with forcing derived from the IPCC-AR4 climate model. Results show that although the oceanic variability in the entire Galápagos region is significantly affected by global climate change, the degree of such effects is inhomogeneous across the region. The upwelling region to the west of the Isabella Island shows relatively slower warming trends compared to the eastern Galápagos region. Diagnostic analysis suggests that the variability in the western Galápagos upwelling region is affected mainly by equatorial undercurrent (EUC) and Panama currents, while the central/east Galápagos is predominantly affected by both Peru and EUC currents. The inhomogeneous responses in different regions of the Galápagos Archipelago to future AGW can be explained by the incoherent changes of the various current systems in the Galápagos region as a result of global climate change.

scholarly journals Irrigation water requirements for seed corn and coffee under potential climate change scenarios

2015 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 39-51 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ali Fares ◽  
Ripendra Awal ◽  
Samira Fares ◽  
Alton B. Johnson ◽  
Hector Valenzuela
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Irrigation Water ◽  
Co2 Emission ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Deep Percolation ◽  
Canopy Interception ◽  
Water Requirements ◽  
Seed Corn ◽  
The Impact

The impact of potential future climate change scenarios on the irrigation water requirements (IRRs) of two major agricultural crops (coffee and seed corn) in Hawai'i was studied using the Irrigation Management System (IManSys) model. In addition to IRRs calculations, IManSys calculates runoff, deep percolation, canopy interception, and effective rainfall based on plant growth parameters, site specific soil hydrological properties, irrigation system efficiency, and long-term daily weather data. Irrigation water requirements of two crops were simulated using historical climate data and different levels of atmospheric CO2 (330, 550, 710 and 970 ppm), temperature (+1.1 and +6.4 °C) and precipitation (±5, ±10 and ±20%) chosen based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) AR4 projections under reference, B1, A1B1 and A1F1 emission scenarios. IRRs decreased as CO2 emission increased. The average percentage decrease in IRRs for seed corn is higher than that of coffee. However, runoff, rain canopy interception, and deep percolation below the root zone increased as precipitation increased. Canopy interception and drainage increased with increased CO2 emission. Evapotranspiration responded positively to air temperature rise, and as a result, IRRs increased as well. Further studies using crop models will predict crop yield responses to these different irrigation scenarios.

Impact of climate change on streamflow and water quality in the upper Dong Nai river basin, Vietnam

2018 ◽  
pp. 70-79 ◽  
Author(s):  
Le Viet Thang ◽  
Dao Nguyen Khoi ◽  
Ho Long Phi
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Quality ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Sediment Load ◽  
Swat Model ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Nutrient Load ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
The Impact

In this study, we investigated the impact of climate change on streamflow and water quality (TSS, T-N, and T-P loads) in the upper Dong Nai River Basin using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrological model. The calibration and validation results indicated that the SWAT model is a reasonable tool for simulating streamflow and water quality for this basin. Based on the well-calibrated SWAT model, the responses of streamflow, sediment load, and nutrient load to climate change were simulated. Climate change scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) were developed from five GCM simulations (CanESM2, CNRM-CM5, HadGEM2-AO, IPSL-CM5A-LR, and MPI-ESM-MR) using the delta change method. The results indicated that climate in the study area would become warmer and wetter in the future. Climate change leads to increases in streamflow, sediment load, T-N load, and T-P load. Besides that, the impacts of climate change would exacerbate serious problems related to water shortage in the dry season and soil erosion and degradation in the wet season. In addition, it is indicated that changes in sediment yield and nutrient load due to climate change are larger than the corresponding changes in streamflow.

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