scholarly journals Relationship between lower stratospheric circulation and Indian summer monsoon rainfall : Implication for long range forecasts

MAUSAM ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 59 (2) ◽  
pp. 173-184
Author(s):  
ANIL KUMAR ROHILLA ◽  
D. S. PAI ◽  
M. RAJEEVAN

In this study teleconnections between monthly northern hemisphere lower stratospheric geopotential heights (100, 50, 30 hPa) and seasonal Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall (ISMR) have been established through the correlation analysis. Stable and consistent precursory signals for the ensuing monsoon were identified from the significant teleconnections. The usefulness of the precursory signals for the prediction of ISMR was also tested using a simple multiple linear regression model. These precursory signals show a good potential in the long range prediction scheme of Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall.

MAUSAM ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 47 (4) ◽  
pp. 377-382
Author(s):  
DHANNA SINGH ◽  
C.V.V. BHADRAM ◽  
G.S. MANDAL

ABSTRACT .The tropospheric mean monthly thickness anomalies of northern Indian stations of selected layers for the months April to July for a 28 years (1968-95) period have been analysed. The thickness anomalies of April and May exhibit significant persistence through July. Also the thickness anomalies of different layers for the months May-July are found to have generally significant (5% to 0.1% level) linear correlations with the succeeding all India seasonal monsoon rainfall. Out of different layers and all the months analysed, the thickness anomalies of 850-300 and 850-100 hPa layers for May are found to have maximum correlations (significant at 0.1% level). From linear and multiple regression results, 850-300 hPa thickness anomaly is seen to be a useful predictor for long range prediction of Indian monsoon rainfall.  


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