vR;f/kd o"kkZ gksus ds dkj.k HkwL[kyu gksrk gS vDlekr ck<+ vk tkrh gS vkSj Qly dks {kfr igq¡prh gSA lekt] vFkZO;oLFkk vkSj i;kZoj.k ij bldk cgqr nq"izHkko iM+rk gSA i;kZoj.kh; vkSj flukWfIVd fLFkfr;ksa ds mRiUu gksus ls vR;f/kd vFkok cgqr Hkkjh o"kkZ gksus ds dkj.k Hkkjr esa nf{k.k if’peh ekulwu _rq ds nkSjku vf/kdk¡’kr% ck<+ vkrh gSA bl 'kks/k i= esa izeq[k flukWfIVd dkj.kksa dk irk yxkus dk iz;kl fd;k x;k gS tks y?kq vof/k iwokZuqeku ds {ks= esa fodflr iwokZuqeku rduhd vkSj vk/kqfud izs{k.kkRed izkS|ksfxdh ij vk/kkfjr o"kZ 1998&2010 dh vof/k dh bl o"kkZ vkSj ok;qeaMyh; iz.kkfy;ksa ds e/; laca/kksa ds fo’ys"k.k ds ek/;e ls ;equk ds fupys tyxzg.k {ks= ¼,y-okbZ-lh-½ esa vR;f/kd Hkkjh o"kkZ dh ?kVukvksa ds fy, mRrjnk;h gSA bl v/;;u ls ;g irk pyk gS fd bl {ks= esa caxky dh [kkM+h esa fuEu nkc iz.kkfy;ksa dk cuuk izeq[k dkjd gS fuLlansg ;fn LFkkuh; fLFkfr;k¡ izHkkoh gks tSlsa fd xehZ dk c<+uk rks ogk¡ ij Hkkjh o"kkZ gksrh gSA lkekU;r% caxky dh [kkM+h esa fuEu vcnkc iz.kkfy;k¡ ¼pØokr] vonkc] fuEu vonkc {ks= vkfn tSls ¼,y-ih-,l-½ fodflr gqbZ tks if’pe ls mRrjh if’peh fn’kk dh vksj c<+h rFkk ;equk ds fupys tyxzg.k ¼,y-okbZ-lh-½ {ks= esa igq¡phA ,slh ?kVukvksa ds fy, mRrjnk;h mifjru ok;q pØokrh ifjlapj.k ¼lkblj½ ds izHkko ls ogha ij ,y- ih- ,l- Hkh cu ldrk gSA ,slh iz.kkyh ls bDds&nwDds LFkkuksa ij vR;f/kd Hkkjh o"kkZ dh ?kVuk,¡ ¼lkekU;r% iz.kkyh ds nf{k.k if’pe {ks= esa½ vkSj dqN LFkkuksa ij Hkkjh ls cgqr Hkkjh o"kkZ gqbZ ftlds dkj.k ck<+ vkbZA ;fn ;equk ds fupys tyxzg.k ¼,y-okbZ-lh-½ {ks= esa ,y-ih-,l- fuf"Ø; ;k /khek iM+ tkrk gS rks bl izdkj dh o"kkZ dh ?kVukvksa dh laHkkouk c<+ ldrh gSA ,y-ih-,l- ds vkxs c<+us dk lgh iwokZuqeku nsus ds fy, vkj-,l-,e-lh- ¼Hkkjr ekSle foKku foHkkx½ ubZ fnYYkh ds iwoZuqeku :i js[kk ds ,u-MCY;w-ih- mRikn@72] 48 vkSj 24 ?kaVksa ds iou pkVZ lgh lk/ku ik, x, gSaA vR;f/kd o"kkZ dh ?kVukvksa ds iwokZuqeku esa bl izdkj dh lwpuk nsus ls iwokZuqekudrkvksa dks fuf’pr :i ls lgh iwokZuqeku feysxk rkfd ftyk izkf/kdkjh le; jgrs vkink dh rS;kjh ds fy, vko’;d ewyHkwr lqfo/kk,¡ miyC/k djk ldsaA
Extreme rainfall results in landslides, flash flood and crop damage that have major impact on society, the economy and the environment. During southwest monsoon season, flood mostly occurs in India due to extremely or very heavy rain that originates from environmental and synoptic conditions. An attempt has been made to identify the main synoptic reasons, which are responsible for extremely heavy rainfall events over Lower Yamuna catchment (LYC) through the analysis of the relationship between this rainfall and atmospheric systems for the period 1998-2010 based on modern observational technology and developed forecasting technique in the field of short range prediction. The finding of this study show that the major factor have is the arrival of Bay of Bengal low pressure systems in this region, of course if the ascent local conditions such as heat occur, causing the heaviest rains there. The low pressure systems (LPS like, Cyclone, depression, low pressure area etc.) developed generally over Bay of Bengal moved in west to north-westwards direction and reached over the LYC region. Also LPS may be formed in situ under the influence of upper air cyclonic circulation (cycir) responsible for such events. Such system yield extremely heavy rainfall events (generally in the south-west sector of the system) at isolated places and heavy to very heavy rainfall at a few places and there by caused flood situation. The possibility of occurrence of such type of rainfall would be higher if the LPS is either stagnate or slow over LYC region. The NWP products of RSMC (IMD) New Delhi forecast contours / wind charts for 72, 48 & 24 hrs were found good tool for accurate forecast position of the movement of the LPS. Such information certainly facilitate to forecaster in prediction of extreme rainfall events more accurately so that district authorities may set up necessary infrastructures for disaster preparedness in time.
Verification of heavy rainfall in NWP models : A case study
