scholarly journals Assessing vaccination strategies for the COVID-19 epidemic in Minas Gerais (Brazil)

2021 ◽  
Vol 42 (1 Supl) ◽  
pp. 35
Author(s):  
Marcelo Domingos Marchesin ◽  
Mehran Sabeti

In this work we analyze the effectiveness of vaccination strategies for the COVID-19 epidemic in the Brazilian state of Minas Gerais. Firstly we study the effectiveness of general vaccination in the decreasing of the number of infected individuals using a traditional non structured SEIR model. Secondly we consider an age-structured SEIR model with three age classes (youngster, adult and elderly) and we analyze the current strategy in the Brazilian state of Minas Gerais, of focusing the vaccination on the elderly group. We conclude by showing this strategy to be mistaken and that a vaccination focusing on the age group of the adults would be much more efficient in decreasing the total number of infected individuals.

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marcelo Marchesin ◽  
Mehran Sabeti

AbstractIn this work we analyze the effectiveness of vaccination strategies for the COVID-19 epidemic in the Brazilian state of Minas Gerais. Firstly we study the effectiveness of general vaccination in the decreasing of the number of infected individuals using a traditional non structured SEIR model. Secondly we consider an age-structured SEIR model with 3 age groups (youngster, adult and elderly) and we analyze the current strategy in the Brazilian state of Minas Gerais, of focusing the vaccination on the elderly group. We conclude by showing this strategy to be mistaken and that a vaccination focusing on the age group of the adults would be much more efficient in decreasing the total number of infected individuals.


Rev Rene ◽  
2015 ◽  
Vol 16 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Beatriz Faria Simões ◽  
Luiza Cantão ◽  
Nadja Cristiane Lappann Botti

Objective: to analyze the suicide rate in historical regions of Minas Gerais, Brazil. Methods: epidemiological studyconducted in five historical regions of a Brazilian state. The data used were extracted from the Information Department ofthe National Health System. Results: the Historical Regions of Demonstrations and Wealth presented higher suicide rateswhen compared to the state’s rate. In 11 of the 15 years analyzed, the Region of Wealth had rates higher than that of MinasGerais. Regarding age group, average levels of suicide were found in the age group 20-59 years in 14 years studied. Wealso identified higher suicide rates among men in the Historical Regions. The most used methods in the Historical Regionswere hanging, strangulation and suffocation. Conclusion: the distribution of suicide cases has enabled to understand theepidemiological characteristics of suicide in the Historical Regions of Minas Gerais during the period analyzed.


2012 ◽  
Vol 141 (4) ◽  
pp. 718-734 ◽  
Author(s):  
G. FABRICIUS ◽  
P. E. BERGERO ◽  
M. E. ORMAZABAL ◽  
A. L. MALTZ ◽  
D. F. HOZBOR

SUMMARYDue to the current epidemiological situation of pertussis, several countries have implemented vaccination strategies that include a booster dose for adolescents. Since there is still no evidence showing that the adolescent booster has a positive effect on the most vulnerable group represented by infants, it is difficult to universalize the recommendation to include such reinforcement. In this work we present an age-structured compartmental deterministic model that considers the outstanding epidemiological features of the disease in order to assess the impact of the booster dose at age 11 years (Tdap booster) to infants. To this end, we performed different parameterizations of the model that represent distinct possible epidemiological scenarios. The results obtained show that the inclusion of a single Tdap dose at age 11 years significantly reduces the incidence of the disease within this age group, but has a very low impact on the risk group (0–1 year). An effort to improve the coverage of the first dose would have a much greater impact on infants. These results hold in the 18 scenarios considered, which demonstrates the robustness of these conclusions.


PLoS ONE ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (12) ◽  
pp. e0260632
Author(s):  
Fatima-Zahra Jaouimaa ◽  
Daniel Dempsey ◽  
Suzanne Van Osch ◽  
Stephen Kinsella ◽  
Kevin Burke ◽  
...  

Strategies adopted globally to mitigate the threat of COVID–19 have primarily involved lockdown measures with substantial economic and social costs with varying degrees of success. Morbidity patterns of COVID–19 variants have a strong association with age, while restrictive lockdown measures have association with negative mental health outcomes in some age groups. Reduced economic prospects may also afflict some age cohorts more than others. Motivated by this, we propose a model to describe COVID–19 community spread incorporating the role of age-specific social interactions. Through a flexible parameterisation of an age-structured deterministic Susceptible Exposed Infectious Removed (SEIR) model, we provide a means for characterising different forms of lockdown which may impact specific age groups differently. Social interactions are represented through age group to age group contact matrices, which can be trained using available data and are thus locally adapted. This framework is easy to interpret and suitable for describing counterfactual scenarios, which could assist policy makers with regard to minimising morbidity balanced with the costs of prospective suppression strategies. Our work originates from an Irish context and we use disease monitoring data from February 29th 2020 to January 31st 2021 gathered by Irish governmental agencies. We demonstrate how Irish lockdown scenarios can be constructed using the proposed model formulation and show results of retrospective fitting to incidence rates and forward planning with relevant “what if / instead of” lockdown counterfactuals. Uncertainty quantification for the predictive approaches is described. Our formulation is agnostic to a specific locale, in that lockdown strategies in other regions can be straightforwardly encoded using this model.


e-GIGI ◽  
2015 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Gracecylia R. Salampessy ◽  
Ni Wayan Mariati ◽  
Christy Mintjelungan

Abstack: A person who has entered the elderly group will experience a change in the composition of saliva, causing the production of saliva does not function normally and lead to a complaint of dry mouth or xerostomia. This study aimed to identify and clarify the picture of xerostomia in the elderly group who use denture in Minahasa district. Xerostomia is a common problem that many occur in the elderly. Clinically, patients with dry mouth will feel dry on the lips and the corners of the mouth become irritated. This was a descriptive study using a cross sectional design. This study was carried out in all elderly nursing homes in Minahasa district. The samples of this study were all elderly who used denture in nursing homes in Minahasa district. Salivary flow rate was measured with a measuring cup. The results showed that xerostomia was found in 93.75% of the elderly, more dominant in females (96.7%), and more frequent in the age group 65-69 years (63.3%). Conclusion: Xerostomia was more common in female elderly, therefore, it is expected that the elderly have to maintain their oral health by eating nutritious foods and vitamin C.Keywords: denture, elderly, xerostomia.Abstrak: Seseorang yang sudah memasuki kelompok lansia akan mengalami perubahan dalam komposisi saliva, sehingga menyebabkan produksi saliva tidak berfungsi dengan normal dan mengakibatkan keluhan mulut kering atau xerostomia. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui dan menjelaskan gambaran xerostomia pada kelompok lansia yang menggunakan gigi tiruan di kabupaten Minahasa. Xerostomia merupakan masalah umum yang banyak terjadi pada lansia. Secara klinis pasien dengan mulut kering akan terasa kering pada bibir dan bagian sudut mulut mengalami iritasi. Penelitian ini menggunakan desain penelitian deskriptif dengan pendekatan potong lintang. Penelitian ini dilakukan di seluruh panti werda di kabupaten Minahasa. Sampel penelitian ini ialah semua lansia yang menggunakan gigi tiruan di panti werda di kabupaten Minahasa. Pengukuran laju aliran saliva dilakukan dengan menggunakan metode gelas ukur. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa xerostomia ditemukan pada 93,75% dari populasi, kelamin lebih dominan pada perempuan (96,7%), dan tersering pada rentang usia 65-69 tahun (63,3%). Simpulan: Xerostomia sering terjadi pada lansia terutama yang berjenis kelamin perempuan. Diharapkan para lansia dapat menjaga kesehatan gigi dan mulut dengan mengonsumsi makanan bergizi dan kaya vitamin C.Kata kunci: gigi tiruan, lansia, xerostomia


Author(s):  
Yongin Choi ◽  
James Slghee Kim ◽  
Jung Eun Kim ◽  
Heejin Choi ◽  
Chang Hyeong Lee

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccination has recently started worldwide. As the vaccine supply will be limited for a considerable period of time in many countries, it is important to devise the effective vaccination strategies that reduce the number of deaths and incidence of infection. One of the characteristics of COVID-19 is that the symptom, severity, and mortality of the disease differ by age. Thus, when the vaccination supply is limited, age-dependent vaccination priority strategy should be implemented to minimize the incidences and mortalities. In this study, we developed an age-structured model for describing the transmission dynamics of COVID-19, including vaccination. Using the model and actual epidemiological data in Korea, we estimated the infection probability for each age group under different levels of social distancing implemented in Korea and investigated the effective age-dependent vaccination strategies to reduce the confirmed cases and fatalities of COVID-19. We found that, in a lower level of social distancing, vaccination priority for the age groups with the highest transmission rates will reduce the incidence mostly, but, in higher levels of social distancing, prioritizing vaccination for the elderly age group reduces the infection incidences more effectively. To reduce mortalities, vaccination priority for the elderly age group is the best strategy in all scenarios of levels of social distancing. Furthermore, we investigated the effect of vaccine supply and efficacy on the reduction in incidence and mortality.


PLoS ONE ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (12) ◽  
pp. e0261236
Author(s):  
Cong Yang ◽  
Yali Yang ◽  
Yang Li

In the past year, the global epidemic situation is still not optimistic, showing a trend of continuous expansion. With the research and application of vaccines, there is an urgent need to develop some optimal vaccination strategies. How to make a reasonable vaccination strategy to determine the priority of vaccination under the limited vaccine resources to control the epidemic and reduce human casualties? We build a dynamic model with vaccination which is extended the classical SEIR model. By fitting the epidemic data of three countries—China, Brazil, Indonesia, we have evaluated age-specific vaccination strategy for the number of infections and deaths. Furthermore, we have evaluated the impact of age-specific vaccination strategies on the number of the basic reproduction number. At last, we also have evaluated the different age structure of the vaccination priority. It shows that giving priority to vaccination of young people can control the number of infections, while giving priority to vaccination of the elderly can greatly reduce the number of deaths in most cases. Furthermore, we have found that young people should be mainly vaccinated to reduce the number of infections. When the emphasis is on reducing the number of deaths, it is important to focus vaccination on the elderly. Simulations suggest that appropriate age-specific vaccination strategies can effectively control the epidemic, both in terms of the number of infections and deaths.


2020 ◽  
Vol 5 (4) ◽  
pp. 2473011420S0027
Author(s):  
Chul-Young Jang ◽  
Ho-Jin Lee ◽  
Eui Hyun Park ◽  
In Tak Chu

Category: Bunion; Midfoot/Forefoot Introduction/Purpose: Due to the increase in life expectancy, the frequency of elderly patients with moderate to severe hallux valgus deformity is expected to increase. The aim of this study was to evaluate the clinical and radiological efficacy of bilateral simultaneous correction of hallux valgus in elderly patients aged 70s and to compare the results with those of middle age. Methods: From August 2014 to July 2017, 92 women (184 feet) patients, who underwent bilateral simultaneous correction surgery (proximal chevron metatarsal osteotomy, Akin osteotomy, and distal soft tissue procedure) due to moderate to severe hallux valgus deformity, were retrospectively analyzed. Based on the age at the time of surgery, elderly patients in their 70’s (70˜79 years) were defined as the ‘elderly’ group and middle aged patients in the 45˜50 years as the ‘middle age’ group. The VAS score, AOFAS-Hallux Metatarsophalangeal-Interphalangeal score, hallux valgus angle, 1-2 intermetatarsal angle, and post-operative complications were compared and analyzed between the two groups. The mean follow-up period was 30.6(24˜57) months. There was no significant difference in improvement of VAS scores after surgery between the middle age and elderly group (p=0.710). Results: Although the final AOFAS scores were significantly different between two groups, there was no significant difference in AOFAS score improvement after surgery between two groups (p=0.129) (Table 1). At the last follow up after surgery, the HV angles and 1-2 IM angles were all significantly improved compared to the preoperation (Table2). Complications occurred in 16 cases, 5 in middle age (11.1%) and 9 in the elderly (19.1%). In the middle age group, 1 case (2.2%) of HV recurrence (> 15 degrees), 1 case of medial incision site paresthesia, 2 plantar pain, and 1 MTP joint stiffness occurred. In the elderly group, 3 case (6.4%) HV recurrence, 2 cased of displacement after metatarsal bone fixation, 2 cases of medial incision site paresthesia, and 2 plantar pain. Conclusion: In patients aged 70s, bilateral simultaneous correction of moderate to severe hallux valgus showed good improvement of clinical and radiologic outcome without any significant difference compared to the middle age group. However, the attention should be paid to the fixation failure after correction in the simultaneous treatment of hallux valgus in elderly patients aged 70s. [Table: see text][Table: see text]


2012 ◽  
Vol 30 (15_suppl) ◽  
pp. e11030-e11030
Author(s):  
Marco A Ruiz ◽  
Tom Reske

e11030 Background: Elderly breast cancer patients, compared to younger breast cancer patients, are diagnosed with a higher stage of disease. They are also found to undergo less surgery, receive more frequently hormonal treatment and have decreased relative survival. The interest of this study was to examine if differences in treatment and survival between >65 year old and <65 year old patients in Louisiana. Methods: The SEER database was searched and all cases of female breast cancer in the state of Louisiana between 2000 and 2008 were analyzed. Data was stratified by age group and year of occurrence. SEER definitions for breast cancer, surgery, chemotherapy, elderly, young populations, radiation therapy, breast conservative surgery were applied. Results: The state prevalence of localized breast cancer is lower compared to the national rate (128.5 vs. 144 p <0.001). The rate of regional breast disease is much higher in Louisiana patients than national average rate (69.7 vs. 57.9 p <0.001). There is no difference in disseminated disease. When the elderly group is compared to non-elderly group there was a difference in localized disease (non-elderly 59.9% vs. elderly 64.98 P<0.001). There was a difference also in regional disease (non-elderly 33.75% vs. elderly 25.02%). No difference was noted in rates of disseminated disease (non-elderly 5.03% vs. elderly 5.77%). The elderly group was offered less surgery compared to the young group (11.39% vs. 6.68% in the young group, p<0.005). In terms of radiation therapy the elderly group receive more general radiation interventions than the young group (65.97% vs. 53.86 p <0.005). In relation to type of radiotherapy (beam radiation and radioactive implants) there were no differences between the two groups. Mortality rates for the elderly group was higher in Louisiana compared to the national average. This difference was more remarkable in the >85 age group (127.8 vs. 118.5, p<0.001) Conclusions: Differences in treatment modalities and management interventions between young and elderly breast cancer in Louisiana patients were observed. Mortality is higher among elderly breast cancer patients in Louisiana compared to national average. Further studies are needed to review the these regional differences.


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