scholarly journals Causality Relationship between Import, Export and Exim Bank Loans: Turkish Economy

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yüksel Akay Ünvan ◽  
Ulviyya Nahmatli

Export promotion tools aim to increase exports and support the entrepreneur in reaching new foreign markets. The positive impact of incentives, especially on financial issues, on exports both before and after shipment is undeniable. Founded in 1987, Turkish Exim bank is Turkey’s official export credit institution. By observing macro-economic balances, Exim bank ensures that exporters, export-oriented production manufacturers and entrepreneurs operating abroad are supported by credit, guarantee and insurance programs to increase their competitiveness. The study aims to examine the causal relationship between imports, exports and Exim bank loans in the Turkish economy. In the study, stationarity with the extended Dickey-Fuller unit root test, long-term relationship with the Johansen co-integration test, and then causality with the Granger test were investigated. The causality relationship was analyzed using import, export and Eximbank loans data for the periods 2003–2020.

2011 ◽  
Vol 28 (1) ◽  
pp. 115-122 ◽  
Author(s):  
Carlos Lago-Peñas

Coach Mid-Season Replacement and Team Performance in Professional SoccerThe coaching carousel or turnover is an extreme but frequently occurring phenomenon in soccer. Among the reasons for firing a coach, the most common is the existence of a shock-effect: a new coach would be able to motivate the players better and therefore to improve results. Using data from the Spanish Soccer League during the seasons from 1997-1998 to 2006-2007, this paper investigates the relationship between team performance and coach change over time. The empirical analysis shows that the shock effect of a turnover has a positive impact on team performance in the short term. Results reveal no impact of coach turnover in the long term. The favourable short-term impact on team performance of a coach turnover is followed by continued gradual worsening of results. The turnover effect is non-existent when the comparison between the new coach and the old coach is done over 10, 15 or 20 matches before and after termination.


Author(s):  
Yunkyeong Nam

A case study was conducted in order to track the human brain adapts to changing demands by physical exercise. Reaction time and amplitude discrimination capacity of the individual were measured with the Brain Gauge to monitor brain activity before and after aerobic exercise. The objective of the study was to determine if there were short-term and/or long-term effects of aerobic exercise.  The data suggests that there are short-term effects and some improvements in performance on the tasks when comparing metrics obtained after exercise to before exercise.  For this individual, aerobic exercise was a regular part of daily routine, there was no long-term effect detected over the relatively short duration of the study.


2016 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 154
Author(s):  
Salih Kalayci ◽  
Gozde Yanginlar

<span lang="EN-US">The major goal of this research paper is to investigate the relationship among Turkish Economic growth, airway transportation and FDI. Several research results consistent with this papers finding and it has been founded that the economic growth plays a crucial role in air transportation by implementing econometrical models including Multiple Linear Regression (MLR), Johansen co-integration test and VAR model. The variables have been put into the Vector Autoregressive Model (VAR) and Johansen co-integration test. According to the test result of Johansen co-integration test there is a long-term relationship between the variables of GDP, FDI and air transportation. According to the both variance decomposition and Impulse Response analysis, the effect of GDP is found to increase </span><span lang="EN-US">air transportation</span><span lang="EN-US"> more than the FDI. Finally, the contribution of Turkish economy to civil aviation seems significant which is consistent with this paper’s research results.</span>


2019 ◽  
Vol 7 (6) ◽  
pp. 497-509 ◽  
Author(s):  
Swati Anindita Sarker ◽  
Shouyang Wang ◽  
K M Mehedi Adnan

Abstract The empirical investigation that examines the dynamics including the interaction between consumption of energy and economic progress has long been assessed. However, the interaction of these two in developing countries in general and Bangladesh, in particular, is a less explored subject. Hence, with this notion, this study examined the causal relationship among economic growth and energy consumption in Bangladesh. For this purpose, the study used energy consumption, gross domestic product (GDP), labor force, and capital data from 1981 to 2017 from different sources and data is analyzed by augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) unit root test, Johansen co-integration test and Granger test of causality. Results determine that energy consumption and economic growth have long term bi-directional relationship. The econometric model is estimated using generalized least squares (GLS) model. It is concluded that, consumption of energy and economic growth positively correlated and economic development highly depend on energy consumption in Bangladesh.


2016 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
pp. 23 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sweety Pandey ◽  
Mrutyunjaya Mishra

The paper examined the causality in both static and dynamic framework between CO2 emissions and economic growth of SAARC countries over the period 1972-2010 using panel approach. The paper presents the facts obtained on the basis of panel unit root test, panel-co-integration test          , panel VECM and Impulse Response functions (IRFs) and Variance decomposition (VDs). IRFs and VDs analysis indicate that CO2 emissions, GDP have positive impact on each other. The result from the application of VECM analysis suggests unidirectional causality running from economic growth to CO2 emissions. The result found contradicts the Environmental Kuznets Curve hypothesis. 


Author(s):  
Vanita Tripathi ◽  
Arnav Kumar

Stocks are generally considered to be a good hedge against inflation because of their tendency to move together. This paper examines long term relationship between inflation and stock returns in BRICS markets using panel data for the period from March 2000 to September 2013. Correlation results reveal a significant negative relationship between stock index and inflation rate for Russia and a significantly positive relationship for India & China. ADF, PP and KPSS unit root tests indicate non-stationary characteristic of the data. Further we find no long term co-integrating relationship between stock index values and inflation rates using Pedroni panel co integration test. These findings have important implications for policy makers, regulators and investment community at large. There may seem to be short term contemporaneous relationship between inflation and equity returns but in the long run they do not seem to be significantly integrated. Changes in inflation may bring some short run movement in stock return but certainly equity does not seem to be a good hedge against inflation in long run at least in emerging BRICS markets.                       Keywords:  BRICS, Stock Index, Inflation, Unit root test, Pedroni Panel Co integration Test, Johansen Co integration Test.


2016 ◽  
Vol 8 (11) ◽  
pp. 48 ◽  
Author(s):  
Çagatay Basarir ◽  
Mehmet Emin Erçakar

In this study, the effect of raw oil prices and exchange rates on current account deficit of the Turkish Economy has been examined by investigating the short and long run relationship between the current account deficit of the Turkish Economy, raw oil prices (Brent oil prices) and exchange rates (USD/TRY). The Monthly Data between December 1991 and January 2016 were used in the study. The relationships between the variables were tested with the VAR (Vector Auto Regressive) Model. None of the series was found stable after the unit root tests, but it was observed that all the variables became stable when their first differences were taken. Firstly, an unrestricted VAR model was built to determine the long term relationship between the variables. After the long term relationship was found between the variables, the VECM (Vector Error Correction) Model was estimated in order to determine the short term relationship. A mutual granger causality relationship is detected between crude oil prices and current account deficit variables. No causality relationship is found between the other variables.


Geosciences ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (5) ◽  
pp. 238 ◽  
Author(s):  
Diego Corrochano ◽  
Alejandro Gómez-Gonçalves

This paper analyzes the impact of fieldwork on the development of students’ mental models concerning glaciers and their effects on the landscape. Data were collected by means of an open-ended questionnaire that was administered to 279 pre-service teachers before and after an educational field trip, which analyzed its impact on short-term and long-term outcomes. In general, students’ mental models about how glaciers function and how they create landforms are relatively simplistic and incomplete. Students are unaware of the major erosional properties associated with glaciers and many of them do not specify that glaciers are bodies of ice that have a tendency to move down slope. The analysis of the data yielded four mental model categories. Fieldwork influenced the short-term effects on mental model development even though its positive impact decreases over time. Mental models including scientific views were only found in the post-instruction group. On the other hand, the pre-instruction group was strongly influenced by a catastrophic event that occurred in the region in 1959 (the Ribadelago flooding), which interferes with students’ mental reasoning on the formation of landscape features. This way of thinking is reinforced and/or mixed with a religious myth (Villaverde de Lucerna legend), which also invokes a catastrophic origin of the lake. In this case, this includes mystic flooding.


This thesis based on the findings of a study on labor demand and export-oriented industrialization in Bangladesh at the time of 1992-93 to 2016-17. For this persistence, secondary data from different sources (BBS, WDI, EPB, BER, WB, BB, etc) for the time duration 1992-2017 has been composed and analyzed through econometric tools. The test approves that the disturbance terms are normally distributed. To detect that the data suffer from multicollinearity, heteroscedasticity, and autocorrelation problem, the diagnostic test has been adopted. From the diagnostic test, it is detected that while the data were free from heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation problems, however, the data suffer from severe multicollinearity problem. The multi-collinearity problem is removed using remedial measures. The Unit root test has been detected to test the stationarity of the composed data. Among different unit root test, ADF-test is adopted. The test displays that the data are stationary at the first difference level for export-oriented industrialization and the second difference level for labor demand. The Johansen co-integration test is adapted to test whether the data are cointegrated at any level. The test results approve that six variables are cointegrated on labor demand and one variable cointegrated on export-oriented industrialization. The Granger causality test under VAR (Vector Autoregressive Regression) framework displays the variable has a unidirectional causal relationship with the dependent variable where all independent variables lead, and the dependent variable follows. However, these relationships have found a statistically significant positive impact of labor demand and export-oriented industrialization in Bangladesh. Thus, there is a dynamic relationship between domestic labor demand, export, and economic progress in Bangladesh.


2014 ◽  
Vol 1 (4) ◽  
pp. 18-24
Author(s):  
Anjum Shezad ◽  
Farzand Ali Jan ◽  
Saqib Gulzar ◽  
M. Akram Ansari

Pakistani Equity Market has seen many ups and downs since the last two decades. The local investors are feeling themselves much insecure in indigenous investment. The reasons behind are political instability, severe power crises and terrorism which compelled the local investors to go across boarder and need to explore the multiple option of investment in international securities to minimize the investment risk. The main purpose and scope of this study is to explore causal and dynamic linkages of Karachi Stock Exchange, KSE-100 index (Pakistan) with emerging stock markets of Nikkei-225 (Japan), Shanghai Stock Exchange, SSE (China), Kuala Lumpur Stock Exchange, KLSE (Malaysia) and Taiwan Stock Exchange Corporation, TSEC Taiwan. The most recent data is taken from January, 2001 to December, 2013. Monthly stock index observations are taken. Descriptive statistics, Correlation Analysis, Unit Root Test, VAR, Co-integration Test, VECM Test are used to identify the presence of short-term as well as long-term associations. Empirical results indicate that KSE-100 is a volatile market and have suitable level of returns. Moreover, KSE-100 index has not long-term relationship with Japan, Malaysia, Taiwan and China but Taiwan, China and Japan has short run relationships to KSE. The findings conclude that there is a further need of future study to explore the factors of economic integration amongst these equity markets. The study overall exhibits awareness not only for economic and financial decision makers but also for international as well as regional investors about the benefit opportunities of portfolio diversification in these equity markets, funds management and trends of the stock market.


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