scholarly journals Emerging dynamics from high-resolution spatial numerical epidemics

eLife ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 10 ◽  
Author(s):  
Olivier Thomine ◽  
Samuel Alizon ◽  
Corentin Boennec ◽  
Marc Barthelemy ◽  
Mircea Sofonea

Simulating nationwide realistic individual movements with a detailed geographical structure can help optimize public health policies. However, existing tools have limited resolution or can only account for a limited number of agents. We introduce Epidemap, a new framework that can capture the daily movement of more than 60 million people in a country at a building-level resolution in a realistic and computationally efficient way. By applying it to the case of an infectious disease spreading in France, we uncover hitherto neglected effects, such as the emergence of two distinct peaks in the daily number of cases or the importance of local density in the timing of arrival of the epidemic. Finally, we show that the importance of super-spreading events strongly varies over time.

2020 ◽  
Vol 117 (10) ◽  
pp. 5250-5259 ◽  
Author(s):  
José Manuel Aburto ◽  
Francisco Villavicencio ◽  
Ugofilippo Basellini ◽  
Søren Kjærgaard ◽  
James W. Vaupel

As people live longer, ages at death are becoming more similar. This dual advance over the last two centuries, a central aim of public health policies, is a major achievement of modern civilization. Some recent exceptions to the joint rise of life expectancy and life span equality, however, make it difficult to determine the underlying causes of this relationship. Here, we develop a unifying framework to study life expectancy and life span equality over time, relying on concepts about the pace and shape of aging. We study the dynamic relationship between life expectancy and life span equality with reliable data from the Human Mortality Database for 49 countries and regions with emphasis on the long time series from Sweden. Our results demonstrate that both changes in life expectancy and life span equality are weighted totals of rates of progress in reducing mortality. This finding holds for three different measures of the variability of life spans. The weights evolve over time and indicate the ages at which reductions in mortality increase life expectancy and life span equality: the more progress at the youngest ages, the tighter the relationship. The link between life expectancy and life span equality is especially strong when life expectancy is less than 70 y. In recent decades, life expectancy and life span equality have occasionally moved in opposite directions due to larger improvements in mortality at older ages or a slowdown in declines in midlife mortality. Saving lives at ages below life expectancy is the key to increasing both life expectancy and life span equality.


Mathematics ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (10) ◽  
pp. 1132
Author(s):  
José M. Garrido ◽  
David Martínez-Rodríguez ◽  
Fernando Rodríguez-Serrano ◽  
Sorina-M. Sferle ◽  
Rafael-J. Villanueva

Mathematical models have been remarkable tools for knowing in advance the appropriate time to enforce population restrictions and distribute hospital resources. Here, we present a mathematical Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) model to study the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 in Granada, Spain, taking into account the uncertainty of the phenomenon. In the model, the patients moving throughout the hospital’s departments (intra-hospitalary circuit) are considered in order to help to optimize the use of a hospital’s resources in the future. Two main seasons, September–April (autumn-winter) and May–August (summer), where the hospital pressure is significantly different, have been included. The model is calibrated and validated with data obtained from the hospitals in Granada. Possible future scenarios have been simulated. The model is able to capture the history of the pandemic in Granada. It provides predictions about the intra-hospitalary COVID-19 circuit over time and shows that the number of infected is expected to decline continuously from May without an increase next autumn–winter if population measures continue to be satisfied. The model strongly suggests that the number of infected cases will reduce rapidly with aggressive vaccination policies. The proposed study is being used in Granada to design public health policies and perform wise re-distribution of hospital resources in advance.


Energies ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (11) ◽  
pp. 3315
Author(s):  
Ewa Zender-Świercz ◽  
Marek Telejko ◽  
Beata Galiszewska

Due to the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus, most countries have tightened their public health policies. One way to limit the spread of the virus is to make mouth and nose cover compulsory in public spaces. The article presents the impact of wearing masks on the perception of thermal comfort. The following masks were analysed: FFP2, cotton, medical, PM2.5, half-face protective shield plastic and full-face protective shield plastic. The research was carried out for two scenarios of an ambient temperature: −20 and 30 °C. A thermal manikin was used for the tests. In the case of when a temperature equals 20 °C, the dry masks increase comfort, both general and local, while wet masks reduce comfort. On the other hand, at 30 °C, only wet masks do not increase discomfort. In addition, moist masks require less heat flux to achieve a certain skin temperature. However, it should be remembered that it is not advisable to wet the masks from the health point of view.


JAMIA Open ◽  
2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bo Peng ◽  
Rowland W Pettit ◽  
Christopher I Amos

Abstract Objectives We developed COVID-19 Outbreak Simulator (https://ictr.github.io/covid19-outbreak-simulator/) to quantitatively estimate the effectiveness of preventative and interventive measures to prevent and battle COVID-19 outbreaks for specific populations. Materials and methods Our simulator simulates the entire course of infection and transmission of the virus among individuals in heterogeneous populations, subject to operations and influences, such as quarantine, testing, social distancing, and community infection. It provides command-line and Jupyter notebook interfaces and a plugin system for user-defined operations. Results The simulator provides quantitative estimates for COVID-19 outbreaks in a variety of scenarios and assists the development of public health policies, risk-reduction operations, and emergency response plans. Discussion Our simulator is powerful, flexible, and customizable, although successful applications require realistic estimation and robustness analysis of population-specific parameters. Conclusion Risk assessment and continuity planning for COVID-19 outbreaks are crucial for the continued operation of many organizations. Our simulator will be continuously expanded to meet this need.


2020 ◽  
Vol 30 (Supplement_5) ◽  
Author(s):  
R S Caló ◽  
B S N Souza ◽  
N D Galvão ◽  
R A G Souza ◽  
J C S Oliveira ◽  
...  

Abstract Background Colorectal cancer has been one of the cancers that most contributed to mortality, in both sexes in the world. In Brazil, cancer is among the top five causes of death and colorectal cancer is ranked on the fifth position. Of the Federative Units belonging to the Legal Amazon, Mato Grosso stands out for the higher adjusted incidence of colorectal cancer for both sexes. Thus, the objective is to characterize deaths from colorectal cancer, according to sociodemographic variables in Mato Grosso from 2000 to 2016. Methods A descriptive study was carried out, using data from the Mortality Information System, made available by the Department of Health of the Mato Grosso State. Deaths of all ages were selected, whose basic cause was identified by the codes from the International Classification of Diseases: (C.18) colon cancer, (C.19) rectosigmoid junction cancer, (C.20) rectal cancer or (C.21) anus cancer. Results Between 2000 and 2016, 31,607 deaths from cancer were registered. Of these, 1,750 (5.6%) were due to colorectal cancer. An increased number of deaths was observed at the end of the period, with a variation from 46 deaths in 2000 from 173 in 2016. Highest frequency was verified in men (51.3%), people aged 60 years or older (59.7%), black (54.6%), married (52.3%) and those with primary education (55.2%). According to Brazilian occupation classification options or those answers filled out on the death certificate, highest frequency were for “Retired” (26.2%), “Housewife” (23.1%), Agricultural/Forestry and Fisheries” (11.3%) and “Production of Industrial Goods and Services” (10.3%). Conclusions This study evidenced the increased number of deaths due to colorectal cancer in Mato Grosso State, and identified priority groups for interventions through public health policies which should include screening and early diagnosis to cope with the disease. Key messages Evidenced the increased number of deaths due to colorectal cancer in Mato Grosso State. Identified priority groups for interventions through public health policies.


2021 ◽  
Vol 17 (2) ◽  
pp. 186-203
Author(s):  
Nathan Genicot

AbstractThe COVID-19 pandemic has given rise to the massive development and use of health indicators. Drawing on the history of international public health and of the management of infectious disease, this paper attempts to show that the normative power acquired by metrics during the pandemic can be understood in light of two rationales: epidemiological surveillance and performance assessment. On the one hand, indicators are established to evaluate and rank countries’ responses to the outbreak; on the other, the evolution of indicators has a direct influence on the content of public health policies. Although quantitative data are an absolute necessity for coping with such disasters, it is critical to bear in mind the inherent partiality and precarity of the information provided by health indicators. Given the growing importance of normative quantitative devices during the pandemic, and assuming that their influence is unlikely to decrease in the future, they call for close scrutiny.


The Lancet ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 390 ◽  
pp. S12 ◽  
Author(s):  
Katie Thomson ◽  
Frances Hillier-Brown ◽  
Adam Todd ◽  
Courtney McNamara ◽  
Tim Huijits ◽  
...  

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