scholarly journals Prediction of COVID-19 epidemic situation via fine-tuned IndRNN

2021 ◽  
Vol 7 ◽  
pp. e770
Author(s):  
Zhonghua Hong ◽  
Ziyang Fan ◽  
Xiaohua Tong ◽  
Ruyan Zhou ◽  
Haiyan Pan ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
High Speed ◽  
Low Complexity ◽  
Development Trend ◽  
Second World War ◽  
Fine Tuning ◽  
World War ◽  
Link Type ◽  
Epidemic Development ◽  
Tuning Strategy ◽  
Second World

The COVID-19 pandemic is the most serious catastrophe since the Second World War. To predict the epidemic more accurately under the influence of policies, a framework based on Independently Recurrent Neural Network (IndRNN) with fine-tuning are proposed for predict the epidemic development trend of confirmed cases and deaths in the United Stated, India, Brazil, France, Russia, China, and the world to late May, 2021. The proposed framework consists of four main steps: data pre-processing, model pre-training and weight saving, the weight fine-tuning, trend predicting and validating. It is concluded that the proposed framework based on IndRNN and fine-tuning with high speed and low complexity, has great fitting and prediction performance. The applied fine-tuning strategy can effectively reduce the error by up to 20.94% and time cost. For most of the countries, the MAPEs of fine-tuned IndRNN model were less than 1.2%, the minimum MAPE and RMSE were 0.05%, and 1.17, respectively, by using Chinese deaths, during the testing phase. According to the prediction and validation results, the MAPEs of the proposed framework were less than 6.2% in most cases, and it generated lowest MAPE and RMSE values of 0.05% and 2.14, respectively, for deaths in China. Moreover, Policies that play an important role in the development of COVID-19 have been summarized. Timely and appropriate measures can greatly reduce the spread of COVID-19; untimely and inappropriate government policies, lax regulations, and insufficient public cooperation are the reasons for the aggravation of the epidemic situations. The code is available at https://github.com/zhhongsh/COVID19-Precdiction. And the prediction by IndRNN model with fine-tuning are now available online (http://47.117.160.245:8088/IndRNNPredict).

Stall, Surge, and 75 Years of Research

2015 ◽  
Vol 138 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
I. J. Day
Keyword(s):  
High Speed ◽  
Second World War ◽  
Rotating Stall ◽  
Flow Modeling ◽  
World War ◽  
Future Developments ◽  
Fields Of Study ◽  
Performance Predictions ◽  
Stage Matching ◽  
Second World

Work on rotating stall and its related disturbances have been in progress since the Second World War. During this period, certain “hot topics” have come to the fore—mostly in response to pressing problems associated with new engine designs. This paper will take a semihistorical look at some of these fields of study (stall, surge, active control, rotating instabilities, etc.) and will examine the ideas which underpin each topic. Good progress can be reported, but the paper will not be an unrestricted celebration of our successes because, after 75 years of research, we are still unable to predict the stalling behavior of a new compressor or to contribute much to the design of a more stall-resistant machine. Looking forward from where we are today, it is clear that future developments will come from CFD in the form of better performance predictions, better flow modeling, and improved interpretation of experimental results. It is also clear that future experimental work will be most effective when focussed on real compressors with real problems—such as stage matching, large tip clearances, eccentricity, and service life degradation. Today’s topics of interest are mostly associated with compressible effects and so further research will require more high-speed testing.

Stall, Surge and 75 Years of Research

2015 ◽  
Author(s):  
I. J. Day
Keyword(s):  
High Speed ◽  
Second World War ◽  
Rotating Stall ◽  
World War ◽  
Flow Modelling ◽  
Future Developments ◽  
Fields Of Study ◽  
Performance Predictions ◽  
Stage Matching ◽  
Second World

Work on rotating stall and its related disturbances has been in progress since the Second World War. During this period, certain ‘hot topics’ have come to the fore — mostly in response to pressing problems associated with new engine designs. This paper will take a semi-historical look at some of these fields of study (stall, surge, active control, rotating instabilities etc.) and will examine the ideas which underpin each topic. Good progress can be reported, but the paper will not be an unrestricted celebration of our successes because, after 75 years of research, we are still unable to predict the stalling behaviour of a new compressor or to contribute much to the design a more stall resistant machine. Looking forward from where we are today, it is clear that future developments will come from CFD in the form of better performance predictions, better flow modelling and improved interpretation of experimental results. It is also clear that future experimental work will be most effective when focussed on real compressors with real problems — such as stage matching, large tip clearances, eccentricity and service life degradation. Today’s topics of interest are mostly associated with compressible effects and so further research will require more high speed testing.

Gender and the Second World War

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Corinna Peniston-Bird ◽  
Emma Vickers
Keyword(s):  
Second World War ◽  
World War ◽  
Second World

Kapitalistische Krisen mit und ohne systemischer Herausforderung.

2016 ◽  
Vol 46 (185) ◽  
pp. 543-560 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ingo Schmidt
Keyword(s):  
World Market ◽  
Second World War ◽  
Deep Penetration ◽  
World War ◽  
Major Overhaul ◽  
Domestic Markets ◽  
Global Restructuring ◽  
Social Divisions ◽  
Class Power ◽  
Second World

This article draws on Marxist theories of crises, imperialism, and class formation to identify commonalities and differences between the stagnation of the 1930s and today. Its key argument is that the anti-systemic movements that existed in the 1930s and gained ground after the Second World War pushed capitalists to turn from imperialist expansion and rivalry to the deep penetration of domestic markets. By doing so they unleashed strong economic growth that allowed for social compromise without hurting profits. Yet, once labour and other social movements threatened to shift the balance of class power into their favor, capitalist counter-reform began. In its course, global restructuring, and notably the integration of Russia and China into the world market, created space for accumulation. The cause for the current stagnation is that this space has been used up. In the absence of systemic challenges capitalists have little reason to seek a major overhaul of their accumulation strategies that could help to overcome stagnation. Instead they prop up profits at the expense of the subaltern classes even if this prolongs stagnation and leads to sharper social divisions.

Zabiegi likwidujące skutki obrzezania wykonywane w Warszawie w czasie drugiej wojny światowej. Wstępna próba opisu zjawiska

2017 ◽  
pp. 437-446
Author(s):  
Maria Ciesielska
Keyword(s):  
Second World War ◽  
Tissue Preparation ◽  
World War ◽  
Medical Practitioners ◽  
Reconstruction Surgery ◽  
Repair Operation ◽  
Manual Treatment ◽  
Operating Technique ◽  
Almost All ◽  
Second World

Men’s circumcision is in many countries considered as a hygienic-cosmetic or aesthetic treatment. However, it still remains in close connection with religious rites (Judaism, Islam) and is still practiced all over the world. During the Second World War the visible effects of circumcision became an indisputable evidence of being a Jew and were often used especially by the so-called szmalcownicy (blackmailers). Fear of the possibility of discovering as non-Aryan prompted many Jews hiding on the so-called Aryan side of Warsaw to seek medical practitioners who would restore the condition as it was before the circumcision. The reconstruction surgery was called in surgical jargon “knife baptizing”. Almost all of the procedures were performed by Aryan doctors although four cases of hiding Jewish doctors participating in such procedures are known. Surgical technique consisted of the surgical formation of a new foreskin after tissue preparation and stretching it by manual treatment. The success of the repair operation depended on the patient’s cooperation with the doctor, the worst result was in children. The physicians described in the article and the operating technique are probably only a fragment of a broader activity, described meticulously by only one of the doctors – Dr. Janusz Skórski. This work is an attempt to describe the phenomenon based on the very scanty source material, but it seems to be the first such attempt for several decades.

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