Assessing Unstabilized Approaches: A Phenomenology Study of the Risk Perceptions and Decision-Making Thought Process of Collegiate Aviation Pilots

Saturday, 18 December 2010 was the first of a two day complete closure of all London area airports due to freezing temperatures and approximately five inches of snow. A week later on December 26th, New York City area airports closed in a similar manner from the sixth largest snowstorm in NYC history, blanketing the city approximately twenty inches of snow. Both storms grounded flights for days, and resulted in severe delays long after the snow stopped falling. Both London and NYC area airports produced risk communications to explain the necessity for the closures and delays. This short flash news report examines, in turn, the risk communications presented during the airport closures. A background is provided to understand how the risk perceptions differ between London and NYC publics. Finally, it compares and contrasts the perceptions of the decision making process and outcomes of the closures, which continue to accumulate economic and social impacts.

Download Full-text

Climate Change and Dairy in New York and Wisconsin: Risk Perceptions, Vulnerability, and Adaptation among Farmers and Advisors

Sustainability ◽

10.3390/su11133599 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 11 (13) ◽

pp. 3599 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Lane ◽

Murdock ◽

Genskow ◽

Betz ◽

Chatrchyan

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Decision Making ◽

New York ◽

Risk Perceptions ◽

Empirical Studies ◽

Climate Change Impacts ◽

Climate Impacts ◽

Dairy Farmers ◽

Critical Issues ◽

Using Data

Climate change impacts on agriculture have been intensifying in the Northeastern and Midwestern United States. Few empirical studies have considered how dairy farmers and/or their advisors are interpreting and responding to climate impacts, risks, and opportunities in these regions. This study investigates dairy farmer and advisor views and decisions related to climate change using data from seven farmer and advisor focus groups conducted in New York and Wisconsin. The study examined how farmers and advisors perceived climate impacts on dairy farms, the practices they are adopting, and how perceived risks and vulnerability affect farmers’ decision making related to adaptation strategies. Although dairy farmers articulated concern regarding climate impacts, other business pressures, such as profitability, market conditions, government regulations, and labor availability were often more critical issues that affected their decision making. Personal experience with extreme weather and seasonal changes affected decision making. The findings from this study provide improved understanding of farmers’ needs and priorities, which can help guide land-grant researchers, Extension, and policymakers in their efforts to develop and coordinate a comprehensive strategy to address climate change impacts on dairy in the Northeast and the Midwest US.

Download Full-text

Modelling evacuation decision-making in the 2016 Chimney Tops 2 fire in Gatlinburg, TN

International Journal of Wildland Fire ◽

10.1071/wf20038 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 29 (12) ◽

pp. 1120 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Erica D. Kuligowski ◽

Emily H. Walpole ◽

Ruggiero Lovreglio ◽

Sarah McCaffrey

Keyword(s):

Decision Making ◽

Risk Perception ◽

Risk Perceptions ◽

Decision Model ◽

Online Survey ◽

Protective Action ◽

Model Risk ◽

Protective Action Decision Model ◽

Online Sampling ◽

Wildfire Evacuation

As wildfires occurring at the wildland–urban interface (WUI) continue to become more severe, there is an increasing need to understand human behaviour in these situations, and evacuation decision-making in particular. To contribute to this understanding, an online survey (using both mail and online sampling methods) was disseminated to households impacted by the 2016 Chimney Tops 2 fire in Tennessee. The survey instrument measured pre-event variables such as awareness of fire risks and previous experience with evacuations as well as the types of warnings and fire cues received during the event, with a focus on factors known to impact evacuation decisions and risk perception. Using linear and logistic regression analyses, it was found that fire cues and receiving warnings from a trusted source influenced risk perceptions leading up to an evacuation decision. In line with the Protective Action Decision Model, risk perception also highly influenced evacuation decisions, along with other variables, i.e. gender and prior preparation actions. Results from this work provide support for findings from previous wildfire evacuation research as well as produce some novel findings, along with several methodological recommendations, which will be further explored.

Download Full-text

Farmer decision-making and risk perceptions towards outwintering cattle

Journal of Environmental Management ◽

10.1016/j.jenvman.2013.05.026 ◽

2013 ◽

Vol 129 ◽

pp. 9-17 ◽

Cited By ~ 10

Author(s):

A.P. Barnes ◽

H. McCalman ◽

S. Buckingham ◽

S. Thomson

Keyword(s):

Decision Making ◽

Risk Perceptions ◽

Farmer Decision Making

Download Full-text

A Systematic Review of the Factors Affecting the Cyclone Evacuation Decision Process in Bangladesh

Journal of Disaster Research ◽

10.20965/jdr.2016.p0742 ◽

2016 ◽

Vol 11 (4) ◽

pp. 742-753 ◽

Cited By ~ 11

Author(s):

Md. Nasif Ahsan ◽

◽

Kuniyoshi Takeuchi ◽

Karina Vink ◽

Miho Ohara ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Decision Making ◽

At Risk ◽

Content Analysis ◽

Risk Perception ◽

Early Warning ◽

Cultural Context ◽

Risk Perceptions ◽

Cultural Issues ◽

Factors Affecting ◽

Warning Messages

Researchers are investigating a broad spectrum of factors affecting positively and/or negatively the evacuation decision-making process occurring after people at risk receive cyclone warnings and advisories. Previous studies suggest that early warnings themselves do not propagate evacuation processes to be investigated but, rather, that human risk perceptions do so. This in turn encourages the sociopsychological dimensions of risk perception to be evaluated, which must be done within a country’s own cultural context. In applying content analysis here, we review the literature on evacuation decision-making processes during rapidonset hazards, i.e., tropical cyclones, in coastal Bangladesh. We focus on three broad overlapping themes – early warning, risk perception, and evacuation decision-making. Major content-analysis findings suggest that two things – a lack of credibility in early warning messages and an inefficient dissemination process – tend to affect the risk perception of people at risk and are likely to eventually determine the success of evacuation decision-making. Findings also show that different socioeconomic and socio-cultural issues related to risk perception appear to be more influential than formal warning messages in propagating decisions to evacuate during a cyclone. Based on these results, we suggest specific policy recommendations for improving local evacuation efficiency.

Download Full-text

Commentary on hormesis and public risk communication: is there a basis for public discussions?

Human & Experimental Toxicology ◽

10.1191/0960327103ht316oa ◽

2003 ◽

Vol 22 (1) ◽

pp. 31-34 ◽

Cited By ~ 3

Author(s):

James Flynn ◽

Donald MacGregor

Keyword(s):

Decision Making ◽

Risk Communication ◽

Risk Perceptions ◽

Threshold Model ◽

Exposure Model ◽

Social Good ◽

Research Results ◽

Daunting Task ◽

Public Risk ◽

The Impact

Research on radiation exposure is now focusing on microbiology and the impact of low dose exposures on cells and cell components. Eventually, this research may provide evidence to support changes in the models used to regulate human and environmental exposures. Currently, three models using older research results are subjects of interest and comparison. The linear no threshold model, the most restrictive on behalf of public health values, dominates regulatory decision making. Alternative models (i.e., the threshold model and the hormesis model) could reduce costs of radiation management, depending upon new research results and public acceptance. Enacting a new public exposure model is a daunting task for risk communication given existing public risk perceptions and the established public decision-making processes. Each of the three prominent models must answer the question, ‘what social good requires the use of this model in contrast to the others?’

Download Full-text

AI Nuclear Winter or AI That Saves Humanity? AI and Nuclear Deterrence

Robotics, AI, and Humanity ◽

10.1007/978-3-030-54173-6_13 ◽

2021 ◽

pp. 161-170

Author(s):

Nobumasa Akiyama

Keyword(s):

Decision Making ◽

Risk Perceptions ◽

Emotional Disturbances ◽

Security Architecture ◽

Nuclear Deterrence ◽

Human Beings ◽

Current State ◽

The Stability ◽

Nuclear Winter ◽

Very High

AbstractNuclear deterrence is an integral aspect of the current security architecture and the question has arisen whether adoption of AI will enhance the stability of this architecture or weaken it. The stakes are very high. Stable deterrence depends on a complex web of risk perceptions. All sorts of distortions and errors are possible, especially in moments of crisis. AI might contribute toward reinforcing the rationality of decision-making under these conditions (easily affected by the emotional disturbances and fallacious inferences to which human beings are prone), thereby preventing an accidental launch or unintended escalation. Conversely, judgments about what does or does not suit the “national interest” are not well suited to AI (at least in its current state of development). A purely logical reasoning process based on the wrong values could have disastrous consequences, which would clearly be the case if an AI-based machine were allowed to make the launch decision (this virtually all experts would emphatically exclude), but grave problems could similarly arise if a human actor relied too heavily on AI input.

Download Full-text

TEACHING ETHICS AND CRITICAL THINKING IN CONTEMPORARY SCHOOLS

Problems of Education in the 21st Century ◽

10.33225/pec/14.61.09 ◽

2014 ◽

Vol 61 (1) ◽

pp. 9-17

Author(s):

Bojan Borstner ◽

Smiljana Gartner

Keyword(s):

Decision Making ◽

Critical Thinking ◽

Key Words ◽

Professional Ethics ◽

Moral Decision ◽

Teaching Ethics ◽

Thought Process ◽

Moral Decision Making ◽

Fundamental Goal ◽

Blooms Taxonomy

Basic ethical questions, dilemmas and especially decisions do not only affect the life of an individual but can also affect lives of others. In some professional ethics, where decisions about a person’s life or death are made, decisions can even be irreversible. In this contribution three ways of deciding by highlighting critical, and reflective decision-making or systematic thought process as the most effective method in ethics have been pointed out. Therefore, taking ethics as a critically reflective morality highlights the fact that we can talk about ethical exploration, so ethics is a process of thinking, not a set of established answers that need only to be passively accepted. It could be concluded that the study of, and practice in, evaluating arguments and evidence (moral decision making) via critical thinking as well as using other important skills (raising questions according to Blooms taxonomy and doing a lot of case studies) is the best way to achieve the most fundamental goal in teaching an ethical course – becoming a better person. And is therefore something that should be in every curriculum. Key words: authority, critical thinking, ethics, decision-making, intuition, teaching ethics.

Download Full-text

Math matters during a pandemic: A novel, brief educational intervention combats whole number bias to improve health decision-making and predicts COVID-19 risk perceptions and worry across 10 days

10.31234/osf.io/hukyv ◽

2020 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Clarissa A. Thompson ◽

Jennifer M Taber ◽

Pooja Gupta Sidney ◽

Charles Fitzsimmons ◽

Marta Mielicki ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Decision Making ◽

Educational Intervention ◽

Perceived Risk ◽

Risk Perceptions ◽

Intervention Group ◽

Science Research ◽

Future Health ◽

Health Decision Making ◽

Whole Number ◽

Health Decision

At the onset of the COVID-19 global pandemic, our interdisciplinary team hypothesized that a mathematical misconception--whole number bias (WNB)--contributed to incorrect beliefs that COVID-19 was less fatal than the flu. We created a novel, five-minute online educational intervention, leveraging evidence-based cognitive science research, to encourage accurate COVID-19 and flu fatality rate calculations and comparisons. As predicted, adults (N = 1,297) randomly assigned to the intervention were more likely to correctly answer health decision-making problems and were less likely to report WNB errors in their problem-solving strategies relative to control participants. There were no immediate effects of condition on COVID-19 risk perceptions and worry; however, those in the intervention group did exhibit increased perceived risk and worry across 10 days of daily diaries. The intervention did not cause distress; instead, it increased positive affect. Ameliorating WNB errors could impact people’s risk perceptions about future health crises.

Download Full-text