Trends in incidence and mortality of tuberculosis in India over past three decades: a joinpoint and age–period–cohort analysis

Background Tuberculosis, as a communicable disease, is an ongoing global epidemic that accounts for high burden of global mortality and morbidity. Globally, with an estimated 10 million new cases and around 1.4 million deaths, TB has emerged as one of the top 10 causes of morbidity and mortality in 2019. Worst hit 8 countries account for two thirds of the new TB cases in 2019, with India leading the count. Despite India's engagement in various TB control activities since its first recognition through the resolution passed in the All-India Sanitary Conference in 1912 and launch of first National Tuberculosis Control Programme in 1962, it has remained a major public health challenge to overcome. To accelerate progress towards the goal of ending TB by 2025, 5 years ahead of the global SDG target, it is imperative to outline the incidence and mortality trends of tuberculosis in India. This study aims to provide deep insights into the recent trends of TB incidence and mortality in India from 1990 to 2019. Methods This is an observational study based on the most recent data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2019. We extracted numbers, age-specific and age-standardized incidence and mortality rates of Tuberculosis for the period 1990–2019 from the Global Health Data Exchange. The average annual percent change (AAPC) along with 95% Confidence Interval (CI) in incidence and mortality were derived by joinpoint regression analysis; the net age, period, and cohort effects on the incidence and mortality rates were estimated by using Age–Period–Cohort model. Results During the study period, age-standardized incidence and mortality rates of TB in India declines from 390.22 to 223.01 and from 121.72 to 36.11 per 100,000 population respectively. The Joinpoint regression analysis showed a significant decreasing pattern in incidence rates in India between 1990 and 2019 for both male and female; but larger decline was observed in case of females (AAPC: − 2.21; 95% CI: − 2.29 to − 2.12; p < 0.001) as compared to males (AAPC: − 1.63; 95% CI: − 1.71 to − 1.54; p < 0.001). Similar pattern was observed for mortality where the declining trend was sharper for females (AAPC: − 4.35; 95% CI: − 5.12 to − 3.57; p < 0.001) as compared to males (AAPC: − 3.88; 95% CI: − 4.63 to − 3.11; p < 0.001). For age-specific rates, incidence and mortality rates of TB decreased for both male and female across all ages during this period. The age effect showed that both incidence and mortality significantly increased with advancing age; period effect showed that both incidence and mortality decreased with advancing time period; cohort effect on TB incidence and mortality also decreased from earlier birth cohorts to more recent birth cohorts. Conclusion Mortality and Incidence of TB decreased across all age groups for both male and female over the period 1990–2019. The incidence as well as mortality was higher among males as compared to females. The net age effect showed an unfavourable trend while the net period effect and cohort effect presented a favourable trend. Aging was likely to drive a continued increase in the mortality of TB. Though the incidence and mortality of tuberculosis significantly decreased from 1990 to 2019, the annual rate of reduction is not sufficient enough to achieve the aim of India’s National Strategic plan 2017–2025. Approximately six decades since the launch of the National Tuberculosis Control Programme, TB still remains a major public health problem in India. Government needs to strengthen four strategic pillars “Detect–Treat–Prevent–Build” (DTPB) in order to achieve TB free India as envisaged in the National Tuberculosis Elimination Programme (2020).

Trends in Cognitive Function Among Chinese Elderly From 1998 to 2018: An Age-Period-Cohort Analysis

Objectives: To investigate the effects of age, period, and cohort (APC) on trends in cognitive function among the Chinese elderly, and to explore how gender gaps in cognitive function change with age, period, and cohort.Methods: This study used data from the Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey (CLHLS) from 1998 to 2018, and included 90,432 participants aged above 65 years old. The measurement of cognitive function was the score of the Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE). Cross-classified random-effect models were used to investigate age, period, and cohort trends in cognitive function.Results: Mini-Mental State Examination scores decreased with age at an increasing rate. While the cohort effect was nearly stable, the period effect demonstrated a downward trend from 1998 to 2002 followed by a nearly flat line. Females were associated with lower MMSE scores than males. When age increased, the gender gaps in MMSE scores further increased. The period-based gender gaps in MMSE scores diverged throughout the 20 years, while the cohort-based gender disparities in MMSE scores converged with successive cohorts.Conclusions: Age, period, and cohort had different and independent effects on cognitive function among the Chinese elderly. The effect of age was stronger than that of period and cohort. Gender disparities in cognitive function increased with age and period, and decreased with successive cohorts.

Vegetation period effect on winter bread wheat varieties productivity

Winter wheat breeding aimed at improving productivity is one of the most difficult tasks, which is associated with this trait unusual complexity. The length of a vegetation period is an important adaptive and economically valuable property, which is closely related to productivity, grain quality, drought resistance, and diseases. To a greater extent, the productivity potential is associated with the length of individual interphase periods, each of which plays a certain role in productivity formation. The length of individual interphase periods of plant development is affected by temperature conditions and water regime. The data obtained show that during the years of study a higher productivity was formed by the varieties with a longer period ‘beginning of a spring vegetation period – a heading phase’ and ‘a heading phase – complete ripeness’. The total vegetation period for these varieties and lines was also for two-three days longer. In our trials the variety ‘Univer’ was the most productive with 9.82 t/ha with 252 days of the vegetation period. The line 1005/14 was also productive with 9.81 t/ha and 251 days of a vegetation period as well as the variety ‘Donskaya Stepp’ with 9.61 t/ha and 251 days.

Lung Cancer Death Attributable to Long-Term Ambient Particulate Matter (PM2.5) Exposure in East Asian Countries During 1990–2019

Background: Ambient particulate matter is a public health concern in East Asia as it contributes to a growing number of all-cause and cancer deaths. This study aimed to estimate lung cancer death attributable to ambient particulate matter (PM) &lt; 2.5 μm (PM2.5) in East Asia countries.Methods: The attributable death rates of lung cancer were estimated based on the calculation of population attributable fraction. We performed joinpoint regression analysis and age-period-cohort (APC) model to estimate temporal trends of the attributable death to PM2.5.Results: In 2019, PM2.5 was estimated to have caused 42.2% (nearly 0.13 million) of lung cancer deaths in East Asia men. During 1990–2019, the increase in age-standardized death rates of lung cancer attributable to PM2.5 was highest in China, which increased by 3.50% in males and 3.71% in females. The death rate caused by PM2.5 also significantly increased in the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (2.16% in males; 3.06% in females). Joinpoint analysis showed that the rates generally increased in younger and older people in both the Democratic People's Republic of Korea and Mongolia, while it only increased in elderly people in other countries'. Age effect from APC analysis demonstrated the risk of lung cancer death attributable to PM2.5 generally increased from young to old age. Period effect indicated that from 1994–1998 to 2019–2023 period risk continuously increased by 1.77, 1.68, and 1.72 times in China, the Democratic People's Republic of Korea, and Japan, respectively. The period risk decreased from 1999 to 2009 and subsequently increased from 2009 to 2019 in both the Republic of Korea and Mongolia.Conclusions: The death rate of lung cancer attributable to PM2.5 is increasing in the Democratic People's Republic of Korea, Mongolia, and China. In East Asia, China is facing the highest attributable death rate in recent decades. The period effect suggested a remarkably increased risk of lung cancer death caused by PM2.5 in China, the Democratic People's Republic of Korea, and Japan during the long-term period. It is recommended that the governments of these countries should continuously concentrate on particulate matter pollution governance and improvement.

Growing up in the Third Wave: democratic transitions and support for redistribution

Variation in experiences of democratic transition have durable effects on political attitudes. I find exposure to distributive narratives of democracy during democratic transitions between the ages of 18 and 25 has a durable positive effect on support for redistribution by tying economic redistribution to the idea of democracy. Using survey data from 28 countries that transitioned during the Third Wave (1980-2000), I show that these effects cannot be caused by any global period effect, survey period effect, birth cohort effect, or country-specific time-invariant characteristics. They are also robust to the inclusion of past experiences of the economy and welfare state, individual controls, and a range of modeling strategies. Using a different source of variation in democratic transitions from 2001-2020, I show that transitions cause attitudes and not the other way around. I argue that many failures of democracy in Third Wave countries are caused by the nature of the transitions from which they originated: distributive transitions produced democratic collective imaginaries irreconcilable with the amount of democratic redistribution that was forthcoming.

Age period cohort analysis of chewing ability in Korea from 2007 to 2018

There have been marked improvements in oral health in Korea during the past 10 years, including chewing ability. We sought to disentangle age, period, and cohort effects in chewing ability between 2007 and 2018. We analyzed data from the Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. The main variable was chewing difficulty, which was assessed among participants aged 20 years and older. APC analysis revealed three trends in chewing difficulty: (1) there was an increase in chewing difficulty starting at around 60 years of age (age effect), (2) there was a steady decrease in chewing difficulty during the observation period (period effect), and (3) chewing ability improved with each successive generation born after 1951 (cohort effect). Regarding recent improvements in chewing ability, cohort effects were somewhat more important than period effects.

Trends in cervical cancer mortality in China from 1989 to 2018: an age-period-cohort study and Joinpoint analysis

Background Worldwide, cervical cancer is the second-most-common malignancy of the female reproductive system. Due to its large population, China accounted for 11.9% of cervical cancer deaths, and 12.3% of global cervical cancer DALYs in 2017. In 2009, China launched a nationwide screening program, yet mortality from cervical cancer has shown an upward trend in recent years. The aim of this study was to explore factors affecting cervical cancer mortality rates in China, and contribute to their future reduction. Methods In this descriptive study, a Joinpoint regression analysis and age-period-cohort (APC) model based on the intrinsic estimator (IE) algorithm were utilized. Data from the period 1989–2018 were extracted from the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) Database of WHO (1989–2000) and China Health Statistical Yearbook database (2002–2018). Results Our study found mortality from cervical cancer to have initially declined, but increase thereafter over the entire observation period in both rural and urban China. The influence of age, period and cohort effect on the mortality rate had statistical significance. The effect of age increased with years, becoming a contributing factor in women aged over 45 years countrywide. Conversely, the cohort effect became a protective factor for women born after 1938 in urban areas, and for women born after 1958 in rural areas. The period effect was relatively less impactful. Conclusions The study indicates that organized cervical screening projects facilitated the identification of potential patients, or patients with comorbidities. Correspondingly, mortality was found to increase with incidence, particularly among elderly women, indicating that newly diagnosed patients were at an advanced stage of cervical cancer, or were not receiving appropriate treatment. Therefore, the coverage of cervical cancer screening should be improved, and women’s health awareness promoted. Early diagnosis and treatment is critical to reduce the disease burden and improve outcomes.