Objective method for analysis of mineral resources supply on the example of Russia

A forecast of nonfuel mineral production in Russia is considered, based on the integration of the expected life of specific deposits currently exploited and developed. It is shown that mineral safety is fully ensured for copper, nickel, lead, tungsten and tin, whose reserves are sufficient for their extraction, at least at the current level, for 40–50 years and there are real prospects for its significant growth. The sufficiency of other minerals is much lower: for molybdenum and chromium, it is limited to about 30 years, and the extraction of zinc and uranium in Russia may significantly decrease in 20 years. The situation is more difficult with the most liquid solid minerals, like gold and diamonds. The commissioning of mining enterprises at the developed gold deposits can ensure a rapid growth in the production of the precious metal in the coming years. However, at the beginning of the next decade, the resource base depletion of the Olimpiada field and a number of other exploited deposits is predicted. The projects currently implemented for the development of new fields do not compensate for the lost capacity. This may account for a long-term (until the beginning of the 2050s) decline in the Russian gold production, which may be halved against the current level by the end of this period. Such a scenario can only be avoided with the intensification of geological exploration in the coming years. The earlier decrease in the number of diamonds mined in Russia, associated with the depletion of reserves of exploited pipes, is predicted (since 2025). Unless new deposits are discovered and developed, the domestic production of precious stones will steadily decline and, in the 2040s, may be reduced fourfold.

Can In-Line Iodine Value Predictions (NitFomTM) Be Used for Early Classification of Pork Belly Firmness?

Commercial technologies for assessing meat quality may be useful for performing early in-line belly firmness classification. This study used 207 pork carcasses to measure predicted iodine value (IV) at the clear plate region of the carcass with an in-line near-infrared probe (NitFomTM), calculated IV of belly fat using wet chemistry methods, determined the belly bend angle (an objective method to measure belly firmness), and took dimensional belly measurements. A regression analysis revealed that NitFomTM predicted IV (R2 = 0.40) and belly fat calculated IV (R2 = 0.52) separately contributed to the partial variation of belly bend angle. By testing different NitFomTM IV classification thresholds, classifying soft bellies in the 15th percentile resulted in 5.31% false negatives, 5.31% false positives, and 89.38% correctly classified soft and firm bellies. Similar results were observed when the classification was based on belly fat IV calculated from chemically analyzed fatty acid composition. By reducing the level of stringency on the percentile of the classification threshold, an increase in false positives and decrease in false negatives was observed. This study suggests the IV predicted using the NitFomTM may be useful for early in-line presorting of carcasses based on expected belly firmness, which could optimize profitability by allocating carcasses to specific cutout specifications.

Objective determination of northeast monsoon onset dates over coastal Tamil Nadu for the period 1901-90

The onset dates of northeast monsoon over coastal Tamil Nadu have been determined by adopting an objective method for the years 1901-90. The various statistical parameters associated with onset dates have been computed and interpreted. Relation between onset dates of easterlies and northeast monsoon over Tamil Nadu has been examined. The normal date obtained has been shown to be by and large consistent with the characteristics of normal daily rainfall of coastal Tamil Nadu. The superposed epoch method has been, used to compute the mean rainfall with reference to onset date and the abrupt increase in rainfall at onset has been clearly brought out The spatial distribution and intensity of rainfall at the time of onset have also been discussed. Daily rainfall has been graphically presented for some years with spectacular onset as well as for some years with subdued onset.

Forecasting peak surface gust wind in association with thunderstorm activity during pre-monsoon season at Delhi

In this study, an attempt is made to develop an objective method for forecasting the direction and speed of the gusty winds associated with thunderstorms at Delhi. For this purpose, surface and upper-air data for April, May and June (AMJ) for the years 1985-90 are utilized. Multiple regression equations are developed for forecasting the direction and speed of the gusty winds, using stepwise screening method, for which a total of 181 potential predictors are utilized. The developed dynamical-statistical models are tested with independent data sets of 1994 and 1995 for April, May and June. The dynamical-statistical models give satisfactory results with the developmental as well as the independent data sets. The root mean square error of the direction vary between 58° and 77° and the speed forecast vary between 9 and 12 knots. Possible reasons for large deviations of the forecast, noticed on a very few occasions, have also been examined.

Objective Eye Tracking Metrics of Vision and Autonomic Dysfunction Distinguish Adolescents With Acute Concussion and Those with Persistent Post-Concussion Symptoms from Uninjured Controls

ObjectiveTo explore the utility of an eye-tracking assessment in distinguishing binocular alignment, saccadic movement, and pupillary dynamics among uninjured adolescents, acute cases (= 28 days since concussion), and persistent cases (>28 days since concussion).BackgroundVisual and autonomic system disturbances are common sequelae of concussion. Quantification of visual and autonomic dysfunction via an eye tracking device could provide an objective method of acute diagnosis and subacute identification of ongoing injury.Design/MethodsWe compared 347 eye tracking metrics, derived from a 220 seconds eye-tracking assessment, among 132 uninjured adolescents (mean age: 15.3, 56.2% female), 110 acute cases (mean days since injury: 12.5, mean age: 15.4, 46.4% female), and 95 persistent cases (mean days since injury: 53.6, mean age: 15.4, 70.2% female) using Kruskal-Wallis tests with Bonferroni corrections to account for multiple comparisons.ResultsNine eye-tracking metrics were significantly associated with injury status. One measure of binocular alignment (acute v. control: p = 0.003, persistent v. control: p = 0.001) and one measure of saccadic movement (acute v. persistent: p = 0.03, acute v. control: p = 0.03, persistent v. control: p < 0.001) were worse in cases. Cases had larger left and right mean and median pupil size than uninjured adolescents (acute v. control, p < 0.001; persistent v. control, p < 0.001). Cases had greater differences in mean (acute v. control: p < 0.001, persistent v. control: p < 0.001), median (acute v. control, p < 0.001, persistent v. control, p = 0.003), and variance of (acute v. control: p < 0.001, persistent v. control: p < 0.001) left and right pupil size. Eight of these metrics distinguished female cases from uninjured adolescents, but similar differences were not observed in male participants.ConclusionsObjective eye tracking technology can identify vision and pupillary disturbances after concussion. These metrics could be integrated into clinical practice to monitor recovery in a heterogeneous adolescent concussion population and may identify sex-specific differences in autonomic dysfunction.

A New Hybrid Dynamic FMECA with Decision-Making Methodology: A Case Study in an Agri-Food Company

The Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA) is often used to improve a system's reliability. This paper proposes a new approach that aims to overcome the most critical defects of the traditional FMEA. This new methodology combines the Entropy and Bwm methodology with the EDas and System Dynamics, FMECA: The EN-B-ED Dynamic FMECA. The main innovation&rsquo;s point of the proposed work is the presence of an unknown factor (Cost) in order to take into consideration the economic aspect; the evaluation of the four-factor through both an objective method (Entropy method) and a subjective method (BWM); the ranking method used (EDAS method), much more accurate than RPN; the development of a dynamic criticality analysis to take in consideration the dynamic aspect of the system. This work aims to give manufacturing companies an easy and replicable method to analyze the possible failure modes and prevent the fault.

An Objective Method with a Continuity Constraint for Improving Surface Velocity Estimates from the Geostationary Ocean Color Imager

Mapping surface currents with high spatiotemporal resolution over a wide coverage is crucial for understanding ocean dynamics and associated biogeochemical processes. The most widely used algorithm for estimating surface velocities from sequential satellite observations is the maximum cross-correlation (MCC) method. However, many unrealistic vectors still exist, despite the utilization of various filtering techniques. In this study, an objective method has been developed through the combination of MCC and multivariate optimum interpolation (MOI) analysis under a continuity constraint. The MCC method, with and without MOI, is applied to sequences of simulated sea surface temperature (SST) fields with a 1/48° spatial resolution over the East China Sea continental shelf. Integration of MOI into MCC reduces the average absolute differences between the model’s ‘actual’ velocity and the SST-derived velocity by 19% in relative magnitude and 22% in direction, respectively. Application of the proposed method to Geostationary Ocean Color Imager (GOCI) satellite observations produces good agreement between derived surface velocities and the Oregon State University (OSU) regional tidal model outputs. Our results demonstrate that the incorporation of MOI into MCC can provide a significant improvement in the reliability and accuracy of satellite-derived velocity fields.

Analysis and forecasting of fog over Bangalore airport

The fog over Bangalore airport has been analysed. The different favourable conditions on the previous night of the fog day has been studied. Attempts have been made to forecast the fog using different techniques. The Composite method is a new objective method which provides a better technique both in terms of physical principles and statistics. The accuracy of different methods have been calculated for the purpose of comparison. The most important result of the analysis is that the frequency of duration and intensity of fog have gradually increased from the decade of 80s to the decade of 90s which may be due to the increase in pollution of air, other factors remaining unchanged.

An objective method for predicting occurrence of pre-monsoon (March-May) thunderstorm events over Delhi using stability indices

In this paper an attempt has been made to investigate different stability indices in relation to the occurrence of thunderstorms in order to determine the critical values of these indices for Delhi (28.35° N / 77.12° E) using pre monsoon data for the years 1999 - 2004. The study shows that the critical values of Showalter Index (SI), Lifted Index (LI), K Index (KI), Total Totals Index (TTI), and Sweat Index (SWI) are respectively < 2 °C, < 0 °C, > 24 °C, > 44.5 °C and > 100 for the thunderstorm to occur over Delhi. The corresponding common critical ranges of Lifted Condensation Level (LCL), Level of Free Convection (LFC), Equilibrium Level (EL) and Precipitable Water (PW) are respectively 923 hPa – 695 hPa, 856 hPa – 504 hPa, 545 hPa – 109 hPa and 18 mm – 54 mm. Testing of critical values of indices and the corresponding common critical ranges of LCL, LFC, EL and PW during pre-monsoon seasons of the years 2005 and 2006 shows that they are matching well with the respective critical values/ranges in most of the thunderstorm days.