judgment and decision making
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2021 ◽  
Vol 5 ◽  
Author(s):  
Subramanya Chandrashekar ◽  
Yat Hin Cheng‎ ◽  
Chi Long Fong‎ ◽  
Ying Chit Leung‎ ◽  
Yui Tung Wong ◽  
...  

Mellers, Hertwig, and Kahneman (2001) conducted an adversarial collaboration to try and resolve Hertwig’s contested view that frequency formats eliminate conjunction effects, and that conjunction effects are largely due to semantic ambiguity. We conducted a pre-registered well-powered very close replication ‎(N = 1032), ‎testing two personality profiles (Linda and James) in a four conditions between-subject design comparing unlikely and likely items to "and" and "and are" conjunctions. Linda profile findings were in support of conjunction effect and consistent with Tversky and Kahneman’s (1983) arguments for a representative heuristic. We found no support for semantic ambiguity. Findings for James profile were a likely failed replication, with no conjunction effect. We provided additional tests addressing possible reasons, in line with later literature suggesting conjunction effects may be context-sensitive. We discuss implications for research on conjunction effect, and call for further well-powered pre-registered replications and extensions of classic findings in judgment and decision-making.


Author(s):  
Cory A. Cassell ◽  
Stuart Dearden ◽  
David Rosser ◽  
Jonathan Shipman

Judgment and decision making research suggests that auditors’ judgments are negatively affected by the use of heuristics. However, there is little research investigating whether such biases survive the quality control processes that regulators and audit firms implement to mitigate them. We investigate this by identifying a setting where one such bias – confirmation bias – is likely to manifest. Consistent with confirmation bias influencing observable audit outcomes, we find that auditors with previous experience auditing a client with a history of low risk followed by an increase in risk do not adequately respond to the higher level of risk. This effect is mitigated when the risk increase is likely large enough to violate auditors’ reasonableness constraint and when the client is highly visible or has strong external monitors. Our study complements prior experimental research by providing archival evidence that auditors’ use of heuristics has a significant effect on auditor judgments.


2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
pp. 351-367 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dana L. Chesney ◽  
Brittany Shoots-Reinhard ◽  
Ellen Peters

Park and Brannon (2013, https://doi.org/10.1177/0956797613482944) found that practicing non-symbolic approximate arithmetic increased performance on an objective numeracy task, specifically symbolic arithmetic. Manipulating objective numeracy would be useful for many researchers, particularly those who wish to investigate causal effects of objective numeracy on performance. Objective numeracy has been linked to performance in multiple areas, such as judgment-and-decision-making (JDM) competence, but most existing studies are correlational. Here, we expanded upon Park and Brannon’s method to experimentally manipulate objective numeracy and we investigated whether numeracy’s link with JDM performance was causal. Experimental participants drawn from a diverse internet sample trained on approximate-arithmetic tasks whereas active control participants trained on a spatial working-memory task. Numeracy training followed a 2 × 2 design: Experimental participants quickly estimated the sum of OR difference between presented numeric stimuli, using symbolic numbers (i.e., Arabic numbers) OR non-symbolic numeric stimuli (i.e., dot arrays). We partially replicated Park and Brannon’s findings: The numeracy training improved objective-numeracy performance more than control training, but this improvement was evidenced by performance on the Objective Numeracy Scale, not the symbolic arithmetic task. Subsequently, we found that experimental participants also perceived risks more consistently than active control participants, and this risk-consistency benefit was mediated by objective numeracy. These results provide the first known experimental evidence of a causal link between objective numeracy and the consistency of risk judgments.


Author(s):  
David E. McCullin

This article is the second in a four-part series that discusses the integration of evidence-based framework and military judgment and decision-making (MJDM). The series is written as a conceptualization and implementation of the presidential memorandum on restoring faith in government dated 27 January 2021. The focus of the series is on integrating the evidence-based framework into defense planning and decision-making as an operational art. The series frames this integration in terms of basing decisions on the best evidence in four categories: subject matter expertise, stakeholder input, organizational data, and scholarship. It also recognizes that scholarship is the single component within the evidence-based framework not currently integrated into military planning.


2021 ◽  
Vol 12 ◽  
Author(s):  
Brett W. Pelham ◽  
Tracy DeHart ◽  
Mitsuru Shimizu ◽  
Curtis D. Hardin ◽  
H. Anna Han ◽  
...  

We argue that rather than being a wholly random event, birthdays are sometimes selected by parents. We further argue that such effects have changed over time and are the result of important psychological processes. Long ago, U.S. American parents greatly overclaimed holidays as their children's birthdays. These effects were larger for more important holidays, and they grew smaller as births moved to hospitals and became officially documented. These effects were exaggerated for ethnic groups that deeply valued specific holidays. Parents also overclaimed well-liked calendar days and avoided disliked calendar days as their children's birthdays. However, after birthday selection effects virtually disappeared in the 1950s and 1960s, they reappeared after the emergence of labor induction and planned cesarean birth. For example, there are many fewer modern U.S. births than would be expected on Christmas Day. In addition, modern parents appear to use birth medicalization to avoid undesirable birthdays (Friday the 13th). We argue that basking in reflect glory, ethnic identity processes, and superstitions such as magical thinking all play a role in birthday selection effects. Discussion focuses on the power of social identity in day-to-day judgment and decision-making.


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