Prevalence of adult sexual abuse in men with mental illness: Bayesian meta-analysis

Background Sexual abuse is a broad category of traumatic experiences that includes rape and any unwanted sexual contact with a body part or foreign object, whether penetrative, oral or otherwise. Although patients with mental illness have a higher risk of becoming victims of sexual abuse in adulthood, few studies investigate the proportion of male victims in this population. Their underrepresentation in research is a barrier to understanding the negative outcomes associated with sexual abuse in men. Aims We estimated the prevalence of recent (past year) and adulthood sexual abuse perpetrated by any perpetrator and separately by intimate partners in males diagnosed with a mental illness. Method To model the prevalences and heterogeneity arising from reports, we used Bayesian multilevel models. Prevalences were estimated for mixed-diagnosis, substance misuse, intellectual disability and post-traumatic stress disorder samples, and studies reporting specifically on intimate partner violence. This review was registered through PROSPERO (CRD42020169299) Results Estimated adult sexual abuse was 5.3% (95% Credibility Interval 1.6–12.8%) for past-year abuse and 14.1% (95% Credibility Interval 7.3–22.4%) for abuse in adulthood. There was considerable heterogeneity of prevalence between studies and diagnosis groups. Conclusions Our analyses show that the prevalence of sexual abuse of males diagnosed with a mental illness was much higher than for men in the general population. This has important implications regarding the proportion of undetected or untreated sexually abused men in clinical practice.

Past-season, pre-season and in-season risk assessment of groin problems in male football players: a prospective full-season study

ObjectiveWe assessed past-season, pre-season and in-season risk factors to investigate their association with an in-season groin problem in male amateur football players.MethodsPast-season groin-pain information and pre-season short-lever and long-lever adductor squeeze strength were obtained at baseline, together with anthropometrics (weight, lower limb lever length) and player age. In-season hip-related and groin-related sporting function was monitored every 4 weeks using the Sports and Recreation (Sport) subscale from the Hip And Groin Outcome Score questionnaire (HAGOS (Sport)). Groin problems, including time-loss groin injuries and groin pain irrespective of time loss, were collected over a 39-week competitive in-season. We estimated relative risk (RR), and 95% credibility interval (ICr) from logistic regressions fitted in a Bayesian framework.ResultsPlayers (n=245) suffering from groin pain during the past-season had 2.4 times higher risk of experiencing a groin problem in the new season (2.40 RR; 95% ICr 1.5 to 3.7). This risk was reduced by 35% (0.65 RR; 95% ICr 0.42 to 0.99) per unit (N·m/kg) increase in the long-lever adductor squeeze test. Player age, short-lever squeeze test and the HAGOS (Sport) scores were not associated with the risk of a groin problem.ConclusionsPast-season groin pain increased the risk of a groin problem in the new in-season. This risk was reduced by higher pre-season long-lever adductor squeeze strength. Past-season groin-pain information and long-lever adductor squeeze strength can be quickly obtained during pre-season to identify players with an elevated risk of in-season groin problems. This may be key to reduce these problems in the new season.

Bayesian Meta-Analysis of Myopia Control with Multifocal Lenses

The aim of this study is to provide reliable guidelines for the mean percentage efficacy together with the 95% credibility interval in slowing down progression of myopia by a specific intervention over defined time periods, derived from a substantial number of randomised controlled clinical trials (RCTs) with consistent outcomes. Multifocal spectacles and contact lenses represent interventions with the largest number of RCTs carried out. Our meta-analyses considered 10 RCTs involving 1662 children which have tested the efficacy of progressive addition spectacle lenses (PALs). In a separate model for comparison purposes nine RCTs with 982 children trialling soft multifocal contact lenses (MFCLs) were analysed. Bayesian random-effects hierarchical models were fitted. The highest efficacy in retarding progression of the scaled sphere equivalent refraction was achieved after 12 M follow-up with the mean 28% reduction in progression and the 95% credibility interval between 21% and 35%. For comparison, the 95% credibility interval for the mean efficacy of soft MFCLs at 12 M follow up is 21% to 37%. We conclude that both multifocal spectacle and contact lenses moderately slow down progression of myopia, relative to single-vision spectacle lenses (SVLs) in the first 12 months after intervention. The relative efficacy of PALs tends to weaken after the first 12 months.

The duration, dynamics and determinants of SARS-CoV-2 antibody responses in individual healthcare workers

Background SARS-CoV-2 IgG antibody measurements can be used to estimate the proportion of a population exposed or infected and may be informative about the risk of future infection. Previous estimates of the duration of antibody responses vary. Methods We present 6 months of data from a longitudinal seroprevalence study of 3276 UK healthcare workers (HCWs). Serial measurements of SARS-CoV-2 anti-nucleocapsid and anti-spike IgG were obtained. Interval censored survival analysis was used to investigate the duration of detectable responses. Additionally, Bayesian mixed linear models were used to investigate anti-nucleocapsid waning. Results Anti-spike IgG levels remained stably detected after a positive result, e.g., in 94% (95% credibility interval, CrI, 91-96%) of HCWs at 180 days. Anti-nucleocapsid IgG levels rose to a peak at 24 (95% credibility interval, CrI 19-31) days post first PCR-positive test, before beginning to fall. Considering 452 anti-nucleocapsid seropositive HCWs over a median of 121 days from their maximum positive IgG titre, the mean estimated antibody half-life was 85 (95%CrI, 81-90) days. Higher maximum observed anti-nucleocapsid titres were associated with longer estimated antibody half-lives. Increasing age, Asian ethnicity and prior self-reported symptoms were independently associated with higher maximum anti-nucleocapsid levels and increasing age and a positive PCR test undertaken for symptoms with longer anti-nucleocapsid half-lives. Conclusion SARS-CoV-2 anti-nucleocapsid antibodies wane within months, and faster in younger adults and those without symptoms. However, anti-spike IgG remains stably detected. Ongoing longitudinal studies are required to track the long-term duration of antibody levels and their association with immunity to SARS-CoV-2 reinfection.

Quark star matter in heavy quark stars

We study the thermodynamic properties of asymmetric quark matter and large mass quark stars within the confined-isospin-density-dependent-quark-mass model. We find that the quark matter symmetry energy should be very large in order to describe the recent discovered heavy compact stars PSR J0348+0432 ($$\text {2.01}\pm \text {0.04}M_{\odot }$$ 2.01 ± 0.04 M ⊙ ), MSP J0740+6620 ($$\text {2.14}\pm ^\text {0.10}_\text {0.09}M_{\odot }$$ 2.14 ± 0.09 0.10 M ⊙ of 68.3$$\%$$ % credibility interval and $$\text {2.14}\pm ^\text {0.20}_\text {0.18}M_{\odot }$$ 2.14 ± 0.18 0.20 M ⊙ of 95.4$$\%$$ % credibility interval) and PSR J2215+5135 (2.27$$\pm ^\text {0.10}_\text {0.09}M_{\odot }$$ ± 0.09 0.10 M ⊙ ) as QSs. The tidal deformability $$\Lambda _{1.4}$$ Λ 1.4 of the QSs is also investigated in this work, and the result indicates that $$\Lambda _{1.4}$$ Λ 1.4 may depend on the isospin effects and the strength / orientation distribution of the magnetic fields inside the quark stars.

Five-Minute Power-Based Test to Predict Maximal Oxygen Consumption in Road Cycling

Purpose: To examine the ability of a multivariate model to predict maximal oxygen consumption (VO2max) using performance data from a 5-minute maximal test (5MT). Methods: Forty-six road cyclists (age 38 [9] y, height 177 [9] cm, weight 71.4 [8.6] kg, VO2max 61.13 [9.05] mL/kg/min) completed a graded exercise test to assess VO2max and power output. After a 72-hour rest, they performed a test that included a 5-minute maximal bout. Performance variables in each test were modeled in 2 independent equations, using Bayesian general linear regressions to predict VO2max. Stepwise selection was then used to identify the minimal subset of parameters with the best predictive power for each model. Results: Five-minute relative power output was the best explanatory variable to predict VO2max in the model from the graded exercise test (R2 95% credibility interval, .81–.88) and when using data from the 5MT (R2 95% credibility interval, .61–.77). Accordingly, VO2max could be predicted with a 5MT using the equation VO2max = 16.6 + (8.87 × 5-min relative power output). Conclusions: Road cycling VO2max can be predicted in cyclists through a single-variable equation that includes relative power obtained during a 5MT. Coaches, cyclists, and scientists may benefit from the reduction of laboratory assessments performed on athletes due to this finding.

Rapid and Reliable Detection of Echinococcus multilocularis from Faeces Using Droplet Digital PCR

Purpose Alveolar echinococcosis is a severe helminthic disease in humans caused by larvae of the fox tapeworm Echinococcus multilocularis. Austria is considered an endemic area with hotspots having up to 45% prevalence (Bagó et al. in Proceedings of the Zoo and Wildlife Health Conference 2019, Berlin, p. 91, 2019). At our facility, we have registered a notifiable increase of animals submitted for the diagnosis of E. multilocularis since 2016. Therefore, we investigated high throughput diagnostic methods to provide rapid and reliable results in comparison with our current method. Methods We have developed and compared a novel method of detection using droplet digital PCR (ddPCR) combined with previous target specific extraction according to Maas et al. (Vet Parasitol 230:20–24, 2016), with our current macroscopic method “Shaking in a Vessel Technique” (SVT) by Duscher et al. (Parasitol Res 95(1):40–42, 2005). We investigated 77 wild canids (72 red foxes, 5 golden jackals) using both methods. The data were analyzed using a non-Bayesian approach, applying bootstrapping to create confidentiality intervals. Results Sensitivity for droplet digital PCR was 90.51% with the 95% credibility interval ranging from 82.50 to 96.92%, whereas mean sensitivity for SVT was 92.04% with a 95% credibility interval ranging from 84.75% to 98.36%. Additionally, a non-linear regression similar to R2 could be pointed out between the counted worms and the results gathered from ddPCR. Conclusion Magnetic capture extraction followed by ddPCR shows strong potential as a high throughput method for diagnosing E. multilocularis prevalence in diverse canid populations as well as infection intensities of individual animals, giving valuable epidemiological insights of the distribution amongst wild canids as an alternative to conventional qPCR or macroscopic methods.

Estimating the size of the COVID-19 outbreak in Italy: Application of an exponential decay model to the weighted and cumulative average daily growth rate

To estimate the size of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak in Italy, this paper introduces the cumulated and weighted average daily growth rate (WR) to evaluate an epidemic curve, On the basis of an exponential decay model (EDM), we provide estimations of the WR in four-time intervals from February 27 to April 07, 2020. By calibrating the parameters of the EDM to the reported data in Hubei Province of China, we also attempt to forecast the evolution of the outbreak. We compare the EDM applied to WR and the Gompertz model, which is based on exponential decay and is often used to estimate cumulative events. Specifically, we assess the performance of each model to short-term forecast of the epidemic, and to predict the final epidemic size. Based on the official counts for confirmed cases, the model applied to data from February 27 until the 17st of March estimate that the cumulative number of infected could reach 131,280 (with a credibility interval 71,415-263,501) by April 25 (credibility interval April 12 to May 3). With the data available until the 24st of March the peak date should be reached on May 3 (April 23 to May 23) with 197,179 cumulative infections expected (130033-315,269); with data available until the 31st of March the peak should be reached on May 4 (April 25 to May 18) with 202,210 cumulative infections expected (155.235-270,737); with data available until the 07st of April the peak should be reached on May 3 (April 26 to May 11) with 191,586 (160,861-232,023) cumulative infections expected. Based on the average mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), cumulated infections forecasts provided by the EDM applied to WR performed better across all scenarios than the Gompertz model. An exponential decay model applied to the cumulated and weighted average daily growth rate appears to be useful in estimating the number of cases and peak of the COVID-19 outbreak in Italy and the model was more reliable in the exponential growth phase.

The joint prediction model of pBMI and eFBG in predicting gestational diabetes mellitus

Objective To explore the predictive value of prepregnancy body mass index (pBMI) and early gestational fasting blood glucose (eFBG) in gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM). Methods This case–control study enrolled pregnant women at 6 to 16 weeks of gestation. The pBMI, eFBG and glycosylated haemoglobin (HbA1c) was recorded in the first trimester of pregnancy. Receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis was used to measure the efficacy of factors that predict GDM. Results A total of 2119 pregnant women were enrolled in this study. Of these, 386 were diagnosed with GDM and 1733 did not have GDM. The age (odds ratio [OR] 1.16; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.13, 1.20), pBMI (OR 1.12; 95% CI 1.07, 1.17) and eFBG (OR 5.37; 95% CI 3.93, 7.34) were independent risk factors for GDM occurrence. The areas under the ROC curve of eFBG, pBMI and eFBG + pBMI were 0.68 (95% credibility interval 0.65, 0.71), 0.66 (95% credibility interval 0.63, 0.69) and 0.71 (95% credibility interval 0.69, 0.74), respectively. The area under the curve of eFBG + pBMI was significantly higher than that of eFBG or pBMI alone. Conclusion The combination of eFBG and pBMI had a high predictive value for GDM.