Prospective validation of an 11-gene mRNA host response score for mortality risk stratification in the intensive care unit

Several clinical calculators predict intensive care unit (ICU) mortality, however these are cumbersome and often require 24 h of data to calculate. Retrospective studies have demonstrated the utility of whole blood transcriptomic analysis in predicting mortality. In this study, we tested prospective validation of an 11-gene messenger RNA (mRNA) score in an ICU population. Whole blood mRNA from 70 subjects in the Stanford ICU Biobank with samples collected within 24 h of Emergency Department presentation were used to calculate an 11-gene mRNA score. We found that the 11-gene score was highly associated with 60-day mortality, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.68 in all patients, 0.77 in shock patients, and 0.98 in patients whose primary determinant of prognosis was acute illness. Subjects with the highest quartile of mRNA scores were more likely to die in hospital (40% vs 7%, p < 0.01) and within 60 days (40% vs 15%, p = 0.06). The 11-gene score improved prognostication with a categorical Net Reclassification Improvement index of 0.37 (p = 0.03) and an Integrated Discrimination Improvement index of 0.07 (p = 0.02) when combined with Simplified Acute Physiology Score 3 or Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II score. The test performed poorly in the 95 independent samples collected > 24 h after emergency department presentation. Tests will target a 30-min turnaround time, allowing for rapid results early in admission. Moving forward, this test may provide valuable real-time prognostic information to improve triage decisions and allow for enrichment of clinical trials.

Limited usefulness of routine head and neck CT angiogram in the imaging assessment of dizziness in the emergency department

Objective To assess the usefulness of head and neck computed tomography angiogram for the investigation of isolated dizziness in the emergency department in detecting significant acute findings leading to a change in management in comparison to non-contrast computed tomography scan of the head. Methods Patients presenting with isolated dizziness in the emergency department investigated with non-contrast computed tomography and computed tomography angiogram over the span of 36 months were included. Findings on non-contrast computed tomography were classified as related to the emergency department presentation versus unrelated/no significant abnormality. Similarly, computed tomography angiogram scans were classified as positive or negative posterior circulation findings. Results One hundred and fifty-three patients were imaged as a result of emergency department presentation with isolated dizziness. Fourteen cases were diagnosed clinically as of central aetiology. Non-contrast computed tomography was positive in three patients, all with central causes with sensitivity 21.4%, specificity 100%, positive predictive value 100%, negative predictive value 92.6% and accuracy 92.8%. Computed tomography angiogram was positive for angiographic posterior circulation abnormalities in five cases, and only two of them had a central cause of dizziness, with sensitivity 14.3%, specificity 97.7%, positive predictive value 40%, negative predictive value 91.46% and accuracy 92.1%. Conclusion Both non-contrast computed tomography and computed tomography angiogram of the head and neck have low diagnostic yield for the detection of central causes of dizziness, However, non-contrast computed tomography has higher sensitivity and positive predictive value than computed tomography angiogram, implying a lack of diagnostic advantage from the routine use of computed tomography angiogram in the emergency department for the investigation of isolated dizziness. Further studies are required to determine the role of computed tomography angiogram in the work-up of isolated dizziness in the emergency department.