Wintertime Rossby Wave Breaking Persistence in Extended-range Seasonal Forecasts of Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Activity

In this study, we examine the wintertime environmental precursors of summer anticyclonic wave breaking (AWB) over the North Atlantic region and assess the applicability of these precursors in predicting AWB impacts on seasonal tropical cyclone (TC) activity. We show that predictors representing the environmental impacts of subtropical AWB on seasonal TC activity improve the skill of extended-range seasonal forecasts of TC activity. There is a significant correlation between boreal winter and boreal summer AWB activity via AWB-forced phases of the quasi-stationary North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Years with above-normal boreal summer AWB activity over the North Atlantic region also show above-normal AWB activity in the preceding boreal winter that tends to force a positive phase of the NAO that persists through the spring. These conditions are sustained by continued AWB throughout the year, particularly when El Niño-Southern Oscillation plays less of a role at forcing the large-scale circulation. While individual AWB events are synoptic and nonlinear with little predictability beyond 8-10 days, the strong dynamical connection between winter and summer wave breaking lends enough persistence to AWB activity to enable predictability of its potential impacts on TC activity. We find that the winter-summer relationship improves the skill of extended-range seasonal forecasts from as early as an April lead time, particularly for years when wave breaking has played a crucial role in suppressing TC development.

The 852/3 CE Mount Churchill eruption: examining the potential climatic and societal impacts and the timing of the Medieval Climate Anomaly in the North Atlantic Region

The 852/3 CE eruption of Mount Churchill, Alaska, was one of the largest first millennium volcanic events, with a magnitude of 6.7 (VEI 6) and a tephra volume of 39.4–61.9 km3 (95 % confidence). The spatial extent of the ash fallout from this event is considerable and the cryptotephra (White River Ash east; WRAe) extends as far as Finland and Poland. Proximal ecosystem and societal disturbances have been linked with this eruption; however, wider eruption impacts on climate and society are unknown. Greenland ice-core records show that the eruption occurred in winter 852/3 ± 1 CE and that the eruption is associated with a relatively moderate sulfate aerosol loading, but large abundances of volcanic ash and chlorine. Here we assess the potential broader impact of this eruption using palaeoenvironmental reconstructions, historical records and climate model simulations. We also use the fortuitous timing of the 852/3 CE Churchill eruption and its extensively widespread tephra deposition of the White River Ash (east) (WRAe) to examine the climatic expression of the warm Medieval Climate Anomaly period (MCA; ca. 950–1250 CE) from precisely linked peatlands in the North Atlantic region. The reconstructed climate forcing potential of 852/3 CE Churchill eruption is moderate compared with the eruption magnitude, but tree-ring-inferred temperatures report a significant atmospheric cooling of 0.8 °C in summer 853 CE. Modelled climate scenarios also show a cooling in 853 CE, although the average magnitude of cooling is smaller (0.3 °C). The simulated spatial patterns of cooling are generally similar to those generated using the tree-ring-inferred temperature reconstructions. Tree-ring inferred cooling begins prior to the date of the eruption suggesting that natural internal climate variability may have increased the climate system’s susceptibility to further cooling. The magnitude of the reconstructed cooling could also suggest that the climate forcing potential of this eruption may be underestimated, thereby highlighting the need for greater insight into, and consideration of, the role of halogens and volcanic ash when estimating eruption climate forcing potential. Precise comparisons of palaeoenvironmental records from peatlands across North America and Europe, facilitated by the presence of the WRAe isochron, reveal no consistent MCA signal. These findings contribute to the growing body of evidence that characterizes the MCA hydroclimate as time-transgressive and heterogeneous, rather than a well-defined climatic period. The presence of the WRAe isochron also demonstrates that no long-term (multidecadal) climatic or societal impacts from the 852/3 CE Churchill eruption were identified beyond areas proximal to the eruption. Historical evidence in Europe for subsistence crises demonstrate a degree of temporal correspondence on interannual timescales, but similar events were reported outside of the eruption period and were common in the 9th century. The 852/3 CE Churchill eruption exemplifies the difficulties of identifying and confirming volcanic impacts for a single eruption, even when it is precisely dated.

EXPRESS: Cross-National Differences in Market Response: Line-Length, Price, and Distribution Elasticities in Fourteen Indo-Pacific Rim Economies

Our field’s knowledge of marketing-mix elasticities is largely restricted to developed countries in the North-Atlantic region, even though other parts of the world—especially the Indo-Pacific Rim region—have become economic powerhouses. To better allocate marketing budgets, firms need to have information about marketing-mix elasticities for countries outside the North-Atlantic region. We use data covering over 1,600 brands from 14 product categories collected in 7 developed and 7 emerging Indo-Pacific Rim countries across more than 10 years to estimate marketing elasticities for line length, price, and distribution, and examine which brand, category, and country factors influence these elasticities. Averaged across brands, categories, and countries, line-length elasticity is .459, price elasticity is -.422, and distribution elasticity is .368, but with substantial variation across brands, categories, and countries. Contrary to what has been suggested, we find no systematic differences in marketing responsiveness between emerging and developed economies. Instead, the key country-level factor driving elasticities is societal stratification, with Hofstede’s measure of power inequality (power distance) as its cultural manifestation and income inequality as its economic manifestation. As the effects of virtually all brand, category, and country factors differ across the three marketing-mix instruments, the field needs new theorizing that is contingent on the marketing-mix instrument studied.

Sea Mayweed Tripleurospermum maritimum and Scentless Mayweed T. inodorum (Asteraceae) intermediates in Orkney

This article describes a study of Tripleurospermum maritimum (L.) W.D.J. Koch and T. inodorum (L.) Sch. Bip. (Asteraceae) in the Orkney Islands (v.c.111), the results of which suggest that intermediates between these taxa may be rather common, and that T. maritimum subsp. nigriceps and subsp. maritimum are both involved, the former more frequently. Obviously this results in a complex taxonomic situation, evidently not confined to Orkney in the far north. Key identifying characters of the taxa are systematically examined and guidance offered on determining hybrids using a population level approach. The taxonomic complexities of these northern populations are discussed, with regard in particular to the identity of T. inodorum occurring there and the place of T. maritimum subsp. nigrescens in the forms and subspecies of T. maritimum found in the north Atlantic region.

A new stratigraphic framework for the early Neoproterozoic successions of Scotland

The circum-North Atlantic region archives three major late-Mesoproterozoic to Neoproterozoic tectonic episodes, the Grenville-Sveconorwegian and Renlandian orogenies followed by rifting and formation of the Iapetus Ocean, and each is bracketed by sedimentary successions that define three megasequences. In this context, we summarise sedimentological and geochronological data and propose a new stratigraphic framework for the iconic Torridonian-Moine-Dalradian successions and related units in Scotland. The Iona, Sleat, Torridon and Morar groups of the Scottish mainland and Inner Hebrides, and the Westing, Sand Voe and Yell Sound groups in Shetland, form the newly named Wester Ross Supergroup. They were deposited c. 1000–950 Ma within a foreland basin to the Grenville Orogen and, collectively, are in Megasequence 1. Some of these units record Renlandian orogenesis at c. 960-920 Ma. The newly named Loch Ness Supergroup consists of the Glenfinnan, Loch Eil and Badenoch groups of the Scottish mainland, deposited c. 900–870 Ma and are assigned to Megasequence 2. These units record Knoydartian orogenesis c. 820-725 Ma. The regionally extensive Dalradian Supergroup belongs to Megasequence 3; it was deposited c. <725-500 Ma and records the opening of the Iapetus Ocean, ultimately leading to deposition of the passive margin Cambrian-Ordovician Ardvreck and Durness groups.

The 1600 Huaynaputina Eruption as Possible Trigger for Persistent Cooling in the North Atlantic Region

Paleoclimate reconstructions identify a period of exceptional summer and winter cooling in the North Atlantic region following the eruption of the tropical volcano Huaynaputina (Peru) in 1600 CE. Numerical climate simulations indicate a possible eruption-induced mechanism for the persistent cooling in a slowdown of the North Atlantic subpolar gyre (SPG) and consequent ocean-atmosphere feedbacks. To examine the possibility of such an eruption-induced cooling mechanism, this study compares simulations with and without volcanic forcing and an SPG shift to reconstructions from annual proxies in natural archives and historical written records as well as contemporary historical observations of relevant climate and environmental conditions. These reconstructions and observations demonstrate patterns of cooling and sea ice expansion consistent with, but not necessarily indicative of, an eruption trigger for the proposed SPG slowdown mechanism. The results point to possible improvements in future model-data comparison studies utilizing historical written records. Moreover, we consider historical societal impacts and adaptations associated with the reconstructed climatic and environmental anomalies.

Five thousand years of fire history in the high North Atlantic region: natural variability and ancient human forcing

Biomass burning influences global atmospheric chemistry by releasing greenhouse gases and climate-forcing aerosols. There is controversy about the magnitude and timing of Holocene changes in biomass burning emissions from millennial to centennial timescales and, in particular, about the possible impact of ancient civilizations. Here we present a 5 kyr record of fire activity proxies levoglucosan, black carbon, and ammonium measured in the RECAP (Renland ice cap) ice core, drilled in coastal eastern Greenland, and therefore affected by processes occurring in the high North Atlantic region. Levoglucosan and ammonium fluxes are high from 5 to 4.5 kyr BP (thousand years before 2000 CE) followed by an abrupt decline, possibly due to monotonic decline in Northern Hemisphere summer insolation. Levoglucosan and black carbon show an abrupt decline at 1.1 kyr BP, suggesting a decline in the wildfire regime in Iceland due to the extensive land clearing caused by Viking colonizers. All fire proxies reach a minimum during the second half of the last century, after which levoglucosan and ammonium fluxes increase again, in particular over the last 200 years. We find that the fire regime reconstructed from RECAP fluxes seems mainly related to climatic changes; however over the last millennium human activities might have influenced wildfire frequency/occurrence substantially.