level of risk
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2022 ◽  
Vol 956 (1) ◽  
pp. 012008
Author(s):  
R Rachmawaty ◽  
A Abdullah ◽  
K Khairil ◽  
D Syafrianti ◽  
A M Daud ◽  
...  

Abstract Elephants are designated as endangered animals because their population in the wild continues to decline. One of the causes of its extinction is the threat of conflict between elephants and humans. The conflict between Sumatran elephants and humans in Aceh continues to increase every year, but there is no resolution to this conflict. This study was aimed to analyse the level of risk of elephant-human conflict in the Mila area and map the conflict areas. The method used was the observation method with the purposive sampling technique. The data was analysed using the disaster risk formula. The results of the analysis of the risk level of elephant-human conflict in Mila District showed that the high-risk level was in Tuha Lala Village (35.24%), Babah Jurong Village (35.22%) and Kumbang Village (35.04%). The level of risk was moderate in Krueng Lala Village (27.64%), Andeue Mosque Village (30.38%) and Dayah Andeue Village (33.38%). Meanwhile, areas with a low-risk level were Kulu Village (21.65%) and Dayah Sinthop Village (20.32%). The mapping of conflict risk areas was coloured red for high risk, yellow for medium risk and green for low risk. The conclusion in this study is that Tula Lala Village, Babah Jurong Village and Kumbang Village are areas with high conflict marked in red. Krueng Lala Village, Andeu Mosque Village and Andeue Dayah Village are areas with moderate conflict which are marked in yellow. Meanwhile, Kulu Village and Dayah Sinthop Village are areas with low conflict marked in green.


2021 ◽  
Vol 84 (4) ◽  
pp. 46-52
Author(s):  
Kh.B. Gulieva ◽  

Currently, the problems of environmental safety are facing society. The industry develops every year. In this critical economic situation, the oil industry is a stimulant for the economic sector in Azerbaijan. The level of development of this industry is also relevant due to other reasons: sociological, technological and features of the economy of Azerbaijan. The production activity of oil processing, concentrating harmful substances and energy, is a source of man-made danger and pollution of the natural environment. The risk management process mainly consists of three stages - risk safety analysis, risk assessment, which is carried out in comparison of calculated and actual risk levels, the so-called acceptable risk levels and the adoption of appropriate regulations and management decisions. One of the factors that should be taken into account when assessing risk and safety is to determine the necessary costs. Since these costs are paid directly to the company, they try to minimize them as much as possible, which reduce the accuracy of risk assessment. One of the objectives of the study is to determine the optimal value of the necessary costs. It is established that the less reliable the method, the lower is the cost of its implementation. The methodological basis of the work was scientific works on these problems of scientists-economists, mathematicians on safety and risk assessment at industrial enterprises. When developing the presented methodology, computational algorithms developed by Dow Chemical were used. This company has collected a large volume of material on accident statistics, taking into account damages. Based on the obtained and experimentally verified data, a system of indices has been developed, an assessment of various indicators for qualitative and quantitative risk assessment of oil refineries. The analysis of the technogenic danger of oil refineries makes it possible to determine ecological and economic losses and choose rational possibilities of acceptable risk. The required costs, depending on the level of risk, are determined based on an increase in the accuracy of calculating the probability of occurrence of the cause of risks. The article examines the relationship between the expected level of risk and economic losses during oil refining in separate technological units, which allow determining the required level of risk and the expected economic damage.


2021 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Arkadiusz KUSTRA ◽  
Barbara KOWAL ◽  
Robert RANOSZ

The article presents an overview of the determinants of exploration works and the definition of the role of junior mines in those processes. Junior mines, as special purpose vehicles, focus on the stages of exploration and documenting of the deposits, without going into theoperational stage related to the exploitation. Due to their nature, those entities finance their activities with equity capital in the formof share issues on the capital markets, addressing their proprietory securities to investors who accept a high level of risk. The largeststock exchanges on which the exploration companies obtain the required funds have been identified, and the trends that complementcapital raising, concerning the involvement of private equity funds, have been presented.


Energies ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (24) ◽  
pp. 8494
Author(s):  
Radosław Puka ◽  
Bartosz Łamasz ◽  
Marek Michalski

During the COVID-19 pandemic, uncertainty has increased in many areas of both business supply and demand, notably oil demand and pricing have become even more unpredictable than before. Thus, for companies that buy large quantities of oil, effective oil price risk management is crucial for business success. Nevertheless, businesses’ risk appetite, specifically willingness to accept more risk to achieve desired business benefits, varies significantly. The aim of this paper is to deepen the analysis of the effectiveness of employing artificial neural networks (ANNs) in hedging against oil price changes by searching for buy signals for European WTI (West Texas Intermediate) crude oil call options, while taking into account the level of risk appetite. The number of generated buy signals decreases with increasing risk appetite, and thus the amount of capital necessary to buy options decreases. However, the results show that fewer buy signals do not necessarily translate into lower returns generated by networks in a given class. Thus, higher levels of return on the purchase of call options may be obtained. The conducted analyses clearly proved that ANNs can be a useful tool in the process of managing WTI crude oil price change risk. Using the analyzed network parameters, up to 29.9% of the theoretical maximum possible profit from buying options every day was obtained in the test set. Furthermore, all proposed networks generated some profit for the test set. The values of all indicators used in the analyses confirm that the ANNs can be effective regardless of the level of risk appetite, so in this respect they may be described as a universal decision support tool.


Author(s):  
Błażej Prusak ◽  
Sylwia Morawska ◽  
Michał Łukowski ◽  
Przemysław Banasik

AbstractThe literature review indicates that bankruptcy law may play an important role in and be one of the factors influencing the development of entrepreneurship, innovation, and thus economic growth, among other things. In previous studies, the analysis of the impact of bankruptcy law on individual variables has been conducted independently. Our aim was to conduct a holistic analysis, taking several factors into account simultaneously. Therefore, a descriptive model was proposed, based on which the following research hypothesis was formulated: In countries characterised by an effective legal system and at the same time debtor-friendly bankruptcy law, the level of risk acceptance among entrepreneurs is higher, which is reflected in higher levels of entrepreneurship and innovation. Based on the selected variables, a cross-sectional analysis was conducted using linear models estimated on the basis of the least-squares method. Additionally, to strengthen the conclusions drawn, the models were assessed in such a way enabling the analysis of causality as defined by Granger based on the two-step process. The results obtained allowed us to confirm the research hypothesis: in countries characterised by an efficient legal system and at the same time debtor-friendly bankruptcy law, the level of risk acceptance among entrepreneurs is higher, which is reflected in higher levels of entrepreneurship and innovation. The research results are particularly important from the point of view of legislators who are responsible for drafting amendments to bankruptcy law. Including certain debtor-friendly provisions may, in the long run, lead to increased entrepreneurship and innovation, and thus economic development.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Antti‐Mathias Taka ◽  
Taina Härkönen ◽  
Paula Vähäsalo ◽  
Johanna Lempainen ◽  
Riitta Veijola ◽  
...  

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Soojin Park ◽  
Antony Langat ◽  
Kyuhwan Lee ◽  
Yongbeum Yoon

AbstractGeothermal technology has a high level of uncertainty and, thus, requires thorough risk analysis for economic decisions. The levelized cost of energy (LCOE) is a basic economic analysis widely used in determining an investment or energy mix. Many reputable institutions and government agencies provide LCOE, to which they apply different levels of discount rates to reflect project risk. To this end, the weighted average cost of capital (WACC) is frequently used as a proxy for project risk-adjusted discount rate. However, whether using a higher discount rate for a riskier project is appropriate in calculating LCOE has not been scrutinized. The purpose of this paper is to propose a certainty equivalent method of LCOE as an alternative way for considering risk. We present a theoretical background and formula based on the utility theory, improving the probabilistic LCOE estimation methodology of previous studies. We also perform scenario analysis to show how the certainty equivalent model changes LCOE reflecting different level of risk of the individual variables, which traditional LCOE does not. Additionally, we suggest that the traditional LCOE should be used prudently, recognizing it can distort the result when an individual project has a different level of risk from the industry average.


2021 ◽  
pp. 70-72
Author(s):  
М.В. Свирина

В данной статье рассматриваются особенности функционирования цифровой экономики в современных условиях. В условиях цифровой экономики полное устранение опасности или риска неизбежно влечет за собой отказ от дополнительных возможностей развития экономики. Поэтому при построении системы безопасности необходимо определить приемлемый уровень риска как с точки зрения его управляемости и предсказуемости, так и возможных последствий. This article discusses the features of the functioning of the digital economy in modern conditions. In the digital economy, the complete elimination of danger or risk inevitably entails the rejection of additional opportunities for economic development. Therefore, when building a security system, it is necessary to determine an acceptable level of risk, both in terms of its controllability and predictability, as well as possible consequences.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
V.V. Moskvichev ◽  
U.S. Postnikova ◽  
O.V. Taseiko

Models and assessment methods of anthropogenic risk are analyzed at this article, general basis of mathematical approach for risk analysis is disclosed. Based on multivariate statistic methods, algorithm of analysis for Siberian territories safety is formulated, it allows to define acceptable level of risk for each territorial group (cities with population density more than 70 000, towns with population less than 70 000, and municipals areas).


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