Using Participatory System Dynamics Modeling to Address Complex Conservation Problems: Tiger Farming as a Case Study

Conservation practitioners routinely work within complex social-ecological systems to address threats facing biodiversity and to promote positive human-wildlife interactions. Inadequate understanding of the direct and indirect, short- and long-term consequences of decision making within these dynamic systems can lead to misdiagnosed problems and interventions with perverse outcomes, exacerbating conflict. Participatory system dynamics (SD) modeling is a process that encourages stakeholder engagement, synthesizes research and knowledge, increases trust and consensus and improves transdisciplinary collaboration to solve these complex types of problems. Tiger conservation exemplifies a set of interventions in a complex social-ecological system. Wild tigers remain severely threatened by various factors, including habitat constraints, human-wildlife conflict, and persistent consumer demand for their body parts. Opinions differ on whether commercial captive tiger facilities reduce or increase the threat from poaching for trade, resulting in policy conflict among diverse stakeholder groups. This paper explains how we are working with international conservation partners in a virtual environment to utilize a participatory SD modeling approach with the goal of better understanding and promoting coexistence of humans and wild tigers. We highlight a step-by-step process that others might use to apply participatory SD modeling to address similar conservation challenges, building trust and consensus among diverse partners to reduce conflict and improve the efficacy of conservation interventions.

A Framework for Estimating Human-Wildlife Conflict Probabilities Conditional on Species Occupancy

Managing human-wildlife conflicts (HWCs) is an important conservation objective for the many terrestrial landscapes dominated by humans. Forecasting where future conflicts are likely to occur and assessing risks to lives and livelihoods posed by wildlife are central to informing HWC management strategies. Existing assessments of the spatial occurrence patterns of HWC are based on either understanding spatial patterns of past conflicts or patterns of species distribution. In the former case, the absence of conflicts at a site cannot be attributed to the absence of the species. In the latter case, the presence of a species may not be an accurate measure of the probability of conflict occurrence. We present a Bayesian hierarchical modeling framework that integrates conflict reporting data and species distribution data, thus allowing the estimation of the probability that conflicts with a species are reported from a site, conditional on the species being present. In doing so, our model corrects for both false-positive and false-negative conflict reporting errors. We provide study design recommendations using simulations that explore the performance of the model under a range of conflict reporting probabilities. We applied the model to data on wild boar (Sus scrofa) space use and conflicts collected from the Central Terai Landscape (CTL), an important tiger conservation landscape in India. We found that tolerance for wildlife was a predictor of the probability with which farmers report conflict with wild boars from sites not used by the species. We also discuss useful extensions of the model when conflict data are verified for potential false-positive errors and when landscapes are monitored over multiple seasons.

Factors Influencing People's Response Toward Tiger Translocation in Satkosia Tiger Reserve, Eastern India

Local communities are an important stakeholder in any carnivore translocation programme and therefore, their acceptance of the translocation and support are essential to ensure its viability. Recent tiger augmentation efforts in Satkosia Tiger Reserve, India received mixed responses from the local communities, causing a stalemate in its progress. As a part of the adaptive management strategy, it was required to assess the concerns and issues to provide a practical solution. Hence, we analyzed the attitude of the people toward conservation in general and tiger specifically. We used structured questionnaire surveys and interviewed 1,932 households from 43 villages located in and around the reserve. We tested the influence of several variables representing four categories- (1) socio-economic, (2) ecosystem values and dependence, (3) relationship with the forest department and (4) losses and fear, on the attitude toward tiger conservation. The villages were clustered based on the responses received under these categories. While conserving forest was important to 91% of respondents, 71% of respondents supported wildlife conservation and only 35% felt important to conserve tiger. The logistic binary regression predicted that at the household level attitude toward tiger conservation is influenced positively by economic well-being, sense of forest ecosystem services, resource dependence and negatively influenced by restrictions from the forest department, and previous experience of loss due to wildlife. At the village level, literacy, resource dependence, access to clean cooking fuel and cooperation from the forest department predicted a positive attitude toward tiger conservation. Restriction from the forest department, fear for livestock, and experience of losses due to wildlife had a negative influence on attitude. We recommend that the villages in the landscape are prioritized based on their needs and accordingly, specific interventions are made to address their concerns. Future augmentation programme must give importance to intangible factors such as fear and perceived restrictions and opt for the involvement of the local community in the decision-making process.

Status of Sumatran Tiger in the Berbak-Sembilang landscape (2020)

Monitoring the status of the Critically Endangered Sumatran Tiger Panthera tigris sumatrae is a key component for assessing the effectiveness of conservation interventions, and thus informing and adapting strategic planning for the remaining 600 Sumatran Tigers on the island. The Berbak-Sembilang National Park is an integral part of the priority Berbak-Sembilang Tiger Conservation Landscape, in a unique habitat of mixed peat and freshwater swamp in eastern Sumatra. Our camera trap survey covered both the Berbak and Sembilang Tiger Core Areas (BTCA, STCA) over a period of 10 years, with surveys undertaken in 2010, 2015, 2018–2019. The most recent population density estimates (BTCA 1.33 adults/100 km2, 95% CI 0.82–1.91 with 19 adults; and STCA 0.56 adults/100 km2, 95% CI 0.45–0.89 with five adults) confirmed a small but stable population. A landscape level management approach is a priority for tiger population recovery, consolidating ground-based protection and establishing a well-maintained fire management system with reforestation of affected areas along with multi-stakeholder engagement and partnerships. The study also recommends extending the BTCA to include the primary swamp forest in the north of the national park, based on evidence from camera trap surveys.

Panthera tigris jacksoni Population Crash and Impending Extinction due to Environmental Perturbation and Human-Wildlife Conflict

The critically endangered Malayan tiger (Panthera tigris jacksoni), with an estimated population of less than 200 individuals left in isolated rainforest habitats in Malaysia, is in an intermediate population crash leading to extinction in the next decade. The population has decreased significantly by illegal poaching, environmental perturbation, roadkill, and being captured during human–wildlife conflicts. Forty-five or more individuals were extracted from the wild (four animals captured due to conflict, one death due to canine distemper, one roadkilled, and 39 poached) in the 12 years between 2008–2019. The Malayan tigers are the first wildlife species to test positive for COVID-19 and are subject to the Canine Distemper Virus. These anthropogenic disturbances (poaching and human–tiger conflict) and environmental perturbation (decreasing habitat coverage and quality) have long been identified as impending extinction factors. Roadkill and infectious diseases have emerged recently as new confounding factors threatening Malayan tiger extinction in the near future. Peninsular Malaysia has an existing Malayan tiger conservation management plan; however, to enhance the protection and conservation of Malayan tigers from potential extinction, the authority should reassess the existing legislation, regulation, and management plan and realign them to prevent further population decline, and to better enable preparedness and readiness for the ongoing pandemic and future threats.

Recolonization of Former Range by Endangered Banteng Bos javanicus in Mae Wong National Park, Thailand

Many large ungulate species, including the banteng ( Bos javanicus), are on the verge of extinction. Mae Wong National Park in Thailand was once a haven for banteng due to its abundance of preferred habitat, but the species was extirpated in the 1970s due to logging and hunting, before park designation. Mae Wong is connected with Huai Kha Khaeng Wildlife Sanctuary (HKK), which retains the largest banteng population remaining in Thailand. In 2019, Mae Wong park rangers reported suspected banteng footprints near HKK. We used camera traps to verify the presence of banteng and determine their population structure and activity pattern. We observed at least nine individual bantengs (range 1–7 each month) during the 15-month survey, including three adult males, two adult females, three juveniles, and 1 calf. Solitary males and herds (up to five animals) were observed, reflecting typical social structure. Banteng were detected throughout the survey and across all seasons, suggesting a resident population. Our research confirms the return of banteng to Mae Wong after an absence of over 40 years. The banteng likely dispersed from HKK, emphasizing the importance of landscape connectivity and source sites for recovery of endangered species. Though still small, the Mae Wong population is breeding, which is significant for future population recovery. Protection, community outreach, and habitat management can help secure this population. As banteng is the preferred food of tigers, their recovery will benefit tiger conservation in Mae Wong as well.