Terrestrial vegetation monitoring at Cape Hatteras National Seashore: 2019 data summary

The Southeast Coast Network (SECN) conducts long-term terrestrial vegetation monitoring as part of the nationwide Inventory and Monitoring Program of the National Park Service (NPS). The vegetation community vital sign is one of the primary-tier resources identified by SECN park managers, and monitoring is currently conducted at 15 network parks (DeVivo et al. 2008). Monitoring plants and their associated communities over time allows for targeted understanding of ecosystems within the SECN geography, which provides managers information about the degree of change within their parks’ natural vegetation. The first year of conducting this monitoring effort at four SECN parks, including 52 plots on Cape Hatteras National Seashore (CAHA), was 2019. Twelve vegetation plots were established at Cape Hatteras NS in July and August. Data collected in each plot included species richness across multiple spatial scales, species-specific cover and constancy, species-specific woody stem seedling/sapling counts and adult tree (greater than 10 centimeters [3.9 inches {in}]) diameter at breast height (DBH), overall tree health, landform, soil, observed disturbance, and woody biomass (i.e., fuel load) estimates. This report summarizes the baseline (year 1) terrestrial vegetation data collected at Cape Hatteras National Seashore in 2019. Data were stratified across four dominant broadly defined habitats within the park (Maritime Tidal Wetlands, Maritime Nontidal Wetlands, Maritime Open Uplands, and Maritime Upland Forests and Shrublands) and four land parcels (Bodie Island, Buxton, Hatteras Island, and Ocracoke Island). Noteworthy findings include: A total of 265 vascular plant taxa (species or lower) were observed across 52 vegetation plots, including 13 species not previously documented within the park. The most frequently encountered species in each broadly defined habitat included: Maritime Tidal Wetlands: saltmeadow cordgrass Spartina patens), swallow-wort (Pattalias palustre), and marsh fimbry (Fimbristylis castanea) Maritime Nontidal Wetlands: common wax-myrtle (Morella cerifera), saltmeadow cordgrass, eastern poison ivy (Toxicodendron radicans var. radicans), and saw greenbriar (Smilax bona-nox) Maritime Open Uplands: sea oats (Uniola paniculata), dune camphorweed (Heterotheca subaxillaris), and seabeach evening-primrose (Oenothera humifusa) Maritime Upland Forests and Shrublands: : loblolly pine (Pinus taeda), southern/eastern red cedar (Juniperus silicicola + virginiana), common wax-myrtle, and live oak (Quercus virginiana). Five invasive species identified as either a Severe Threat (Rank 1) or Significant Threat (Rank 2) to native plants by the North Carolina Native Plant Society (Buchanan 2010) were found during this monitoring effort. These species (and their overall frequency of occurrence within all plots) included: alligatorweed (Alternanthera philoxeroides; 2%), Japanese honeysuckle (Lonicera japonica; 10%), Japanese stilt-grass (Microstegium vimineum; 2%), European common reed (Phragmites australis; 8%), and common chickweed (Stellaria media; 2%). Eighteen rare species tracked by the North Carolina Natural Heritage Program (Robinson 2018) were found during this monitoring effort, including two species—cypress panicgrass (Dichanthelium caerulescens) and Gulf Coast spikerush (Eleocharis cellulosa)—listed as State Endangered by the Plant Conservation Program of the North Carolina Department of Agriculture and Consumer Services (NCPCP 2010). Southern/eastern red cedar was a dominant species within the tree stratum of both Maritime Nontidal Wetland and Maritime Upland Forest and Shrubland habitat types. Other dominant tree species within CAHA forests included loblolly pine, live oak, and Darlington oak (Quercus hemisphaerica). One hundred percent of the live swamp bay (Persea palustris) trees measured in these plots were experiencing declining vigor and observed with symptoms like those caused by laurel wilt......less

Numerical modelling and computer visualization of the storm surge in and around the Croatan-Albemarle-Pamlico estuary system produced by hurricane Emily of August 1993

Hurricane Emily unleashed its fury on the Outer Banks of North Carolina on 31 August 1993. Storm surge was a major cause of damage along the Outer Banks. The highest flood water (11-11.5ft) occurred in the Buxton area near Cape Hatteras, North Carolina. It was reported that this flood water was from storm surges along the sound side of the barrier islands. An experimental forecast was conducted for this event in real time using Croatan-Albemarle-Pamlico estuary systems (CAPES) storm surge prediction model developed at North Carolina State University (NCSU). It uses as input parameters the projected hurricane track, minimum center pressure, maximum sustained wind speed and radius of maximum wind speed provided by the National Hurricane Center (NHC). The forcing of the model also includes fresh water input from sound system rivers, and of coastal waters intruding into the sound via Ocracoke, Hatteras and Oregon inlets. The predicted maximum surge along the sound side of the Outer Banks was within 85-90% of the post-storm highwater-mark survey data provided by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). Albeit, an after the fact simulation using the post-storm analysis of the track of Emily provided by the NHC, the maximum storm surge along the sound side of the Outer Bancks predicted by the model was within 95-98% of the maximum highwater mark data. The location of the predicted maximum surge for both pre and first model runs was near Cape Hatteras, which agreed well with USGS's survey data. We conclude that the CAPES storm surge model is capable of providing accurate storm surge forecasts in and around the CAPES, but such forecasts are sensitive to not only the observed storm size and intensity but in particular, the projected storm track.

Life in the Fast Lane: Modeling the Fate of Glass Sponge Larvae in the Gulf Stream

Effective conservation management of deep-sea sponges, including design of appropriate marine protected areas, requires an understanding of the connectivity between populations throughout a species’ distribution. We provide the first consideration of larval connectivity among deep-sea sponge populations along the southeastern coast of North America, illustrate the influence of the Gulf Stream on dispersal, and complement published distribution models by evaluating colonization potential. Connectivity among known populations of the hexactinellid sponge Vazella pourtalesii was simulated using a 3-D biophysical dispersal model throughout its distribution from Florida, United States to Nova Scotia, Canada. We found no exchange with an estimated pelagic larval duration of 2 weeks between populations north and south of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina at surface, mid-water and seabed release depths, irrespective of month of release or application of a horizontal diffusion constant specific to cross-Gulf Stream diffusivity. The population north of Cape Hatteras and south of Cape Cod was isolated. There was some evidence that Gulf Stream eddies formed near Cape Hatteras could travel to the northwest, connecting the populations in the two sub-regions, however that would require a much longer pelagic duration than what is currently known. More likely almost all larval settlement will be in the immediate area of the adults. At sub-regional scales, connectivity was found from the Strait of Florida through to the Blake Plateau, southeastern United States, with the latter area showing potential for recruitment from more than one source population. The influence of the Charleston Bump, a shallow feature rising from the Blake Plateau, was substantial. Particles seeded just north of the Bump were transported greater distances than those seeded to the south, some of which were caught in an associated gyre, promoting retention at the seabed. To the north on the Scotian Shelf, despite weaker currents and greater distances between known occurrences, unidirectional transport was detected from Emerald Basin to the Northeast Channel between Georges and Browns Banks. These major conclusions remained consistent through simulations run with different averaging periods for the currents (decades to daily) and using two ocean model products (BNAM and GLORYS12V1).

The Distribution of Giant Manta Rays In The Western North Atlantic Ocean Off The Eastern United States

In 2018, the giant manta ray (Manta birostris) was listed as threatened under the U.S. Endangered Species Act. We integrated decades of sightings and survey effort data from multiple sources in a comprehensive species distribution modeling (SDM) framework to evaluate the distribution of giant manta rays off the eastern United States, including the Gulf of Mexico. Manta rays were most commonly detected at productive nearshore and shelf-edge upwelling zones at surface thermal frontal boundaries within a temperature range of approximately 15–30 °C. SDMs predicted high nearshore concentrations off Northeast Florida during April, with the distribution extending northward along the shelf-edge as temperatures warm, leading to higher occurrences north of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina from June to October, and then south of Savannah, Georgia from November to March as temperatures cool. In the Gulf of Mexico, the highest nearshore concentrations were predicted near the Mississippi River delta from April to June and again from October to November. SDM predictions will allow resource managers to more effectively protect manta rays from fisheries bycatch, boat strikes, oil and gas activities, contaminants and pollutants, and other threats.

Timing of iceberg scours and massive ice-rafting events in the subtropical North Atlantic

High resolution seafloor mapping shows extraordinary evidence that massive (>300 m thick) icebergs once drifted >5,000 km south along the eastern United States, with >700 iceberg scours now identified south of Cape Hatteras. Here we report on sediment cores collected from several buried scours that show multiple plow marks align with Heinrich Event 3 (H3), ~31,000 years ago. Numerical glacial iceberg simulations indicate that the transport of icebergs to these sites occurs during massive, but short-lived, periods of elevated meltwater discharge. Transport of icebergs to the subtropics, away from deep water formation sites, may explain why H3 was associated with only a modest increase in ice-rafting across the subpolar North Atlantic, and implies a complex relationship between freshwater forcing and climate change. Stratigraphy from subbottom data across the scour marks shows there are additional features that are both older and younger, and may align with other periods of elevated meltwater discharge.

Forecasting oceanfront shoreline position to evaluate physical vulnerability for recreational and infrastructure resilience at Cape Hatteras National Seashore

The Cape Hatteras National Seashore (Seashore) is located along the Outer Banks of eastern North Carolina, and is renowned for its prominent historical landmarks and world-class recreation. Seashore managers maintain hundreds of assets that support visitor use. Additionally, and primary to the mission of the National Park Service (NPS), managers steward natural and cultural resources located on public and protected lands. The portfolio of assets managed by NPS within the Seashore carries a high level of risk due to its exposure to both coastal erosion and storm surge inundation. The impacts of Hurricane Dorian demonstrated the importance of examining the physical vulnerability of the entire portfolio managed by NPS within the Seashore. The purpose of this study was to 1) evaluate the functionality of the beta forecast tool available in the Digital Shoreline Analysis System (v 5.0); and 2) explore options for using the output to assess the potential physical vulnerability of NPS assets. The study determined that using the 10- and 20-year oceanfront shoreline position forecast provides decision makers with a first order screening tool that can be used to prioritize mitigation and adaptation strategies given the unpredictable nature of tropical and extra-tropical cyclones and uncertainty associated with sea level rise.

Post-Dorian shoreline change at Cape Hatteras National Seashore: 2019 report

In 2018 and 2019 the Southeast Coast Network (SECN), with assistance from park staff, collected long-term shoreline monitoring data at Cape Hatteras National Seashore as part of the National Park Service (NPS) Vital Signs Monitoring Program. Monitoring was conducted following methods developed by the NPS Northeast Coastal and Barrier Network and consisted of mapping the high-tide swash line using a Global Positioning System unit in the spring of each year (Psuty et al. 2010). Shoreline change was calculated using the Digital Shoreline Analysis System (DSAS) developed by the United States Geological Survey (USGS; Himmelstoss et al. 2018). Following the same field methods used for monitoring long-term shoreline change, geospatial data were collected as part of the Hurricane Dorian (or Dorian) Incident Response from September 12–16, 2019. This report summarizes the post-Dorian data and the previous two shoreline data collection efforts (spring 2019 and fall 2018).