Ideological polarization and government debt

Models of strategic debt predict that public debt increases with polarization, measured by the ideological distance between the government and its likely successor. Conversely if voters are both short-termist and also more likely to switch their vote for parties offering higher spending and public good provision when the electorate is ideologically concentrated, then debt can fall with polarization, measured by dispersion of ideological preferences in the electorate. Using time-varying polarization measures generated from ideology data from party manifestos, we find a sizable and statistically significant negative association between debt levels in OECD countries and ideological polarization in the electorate.

The Evolution of Networks and Local Public Good Provision: A Potential Approach

In this paper, we propose a game in which each player decides with whom to establish a costly connection and how much local public good is provided when benefits are shared among neighbors. We show that, when agents are homogeneous, Nash equilibrium networks are nested split graphs. Additionally, we show that the game is a potential game, even when we introduce heterogeneity along several dimensions. Using this result, we introduce stochastic best reply dynamics and show that this admits a unique and stationary steady state distribution expressed in terms of the potential function of the game. Hence, even if the set of Nash equilibria is potentially very large, the long run predictions are sharp.