Assessing the interconnectedness and systemic risk contagion in the Chinese banking network

PurposeIn this paper, the authors use the balance sheet data to investigate the interconnectedness and risk contagion effects in China's banking sector. They firstly study the network structure and centrality of the interbank network. Then, they investigate how and to what extent the credit shock and liquidity shock can lead to the risk propagation in the banking network.Design/methodology/approachReferring to the theoretical framework by Haldane and May (2011), this paper uses the network topology theory to analyze the contagion mechanism of credit shock and liquidity shock. Centrality measures and log-log plot are used to evaluate the interconnectedness of China's banking network.FindingsThe network topology has shown clustering effects of large banks in China's financial network. If the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) is in distress, the credit shock has little impact on the Chinese banking sector. However, the liquidity shock has shown more substantial effects than that of the credit shock. The discount rate and the rollover ratio play significant roles in determining the contagion effects. If the credit shock and liquidity shock coincide, the contagion effects will be amplified.Research limitations/implicationsThe results of this paper reveal the network structure of China's interbank market and the resilience of banking system to the adverse shock. The findings are valuable for regulators to make policies and supervise the systemic important banks.Originality/valueThe balance sheet data of different types of banks are used to construct a bilateral exposure matrix. Based on the matrix, this paper investigates the knock-on effects of credit shock triggered by the debt default in the interbank market, the knock-on effects of liquidity effects, which is featured by “fire sale” of bank assets, and the contagion effects of combined shocks.

Systemic liquidity contagion in the European interbank market

Systemic liquidity risk, defined by the International Monetary Fund as “the risk of simultaneous liquidity difficulties at multiple financial institutions,” is a key topic in financial stability studies and macroprudential policy-making. In this context, the complex web of interconnections of the interbank market plays the crucial role of allowing funding liquidity shortages to propagate between financial institutions. Here, we introduce a simple yet effective model of the interbank market in which liquidity shortages propagate through an epidemic-like contagion mechanism on the network of interbank loans. The model is defined by using aggregate balance sheet information of European banks, and it exploits country and bank-specific risk features to account for the heterogeneity of financial institutions. Moreover, in order to obtain the European-wide topology of the interbank network, we define a block reconstruction method based on the exchange flows between the various countries. We show that the proposed contagion model is able to estimate systemic liquidity risk across different years and countries. Results suggest that our effective contagion approach can be successfully used as a viable alternative to more realistic but complicated models, which not only require more specific balance sheet variables with high time resolution but also need assumptions on how banks respond to liquidity shocks.

Subgraph Network Random Effects Error Components Models: Specification and Testing

This paper develops a subgraph random effects error components model for network data linear regression where the unit of observation is the node. In particular, it allows for link and triangle specific components, which serve as a basal model for modeling network effects. It then evaluates the potential effects of ignoring network effects in the estimation of the coefficients’ variance-covariance matrix. It also proposes consistent estimators of the variance components using quadratic forms and Lagrange Multiplier tests for evaluating the appropriate model of random components in networks. Monte Carlo simulations show that the tests have good performance in finite samples. It applies the proposed tests to the Call interbank market in Argentina.

Research on the Stock Correlation Network Entropy and Its Influencing Factors in the Chinese Interbank Market

The stability of the interbank market is an essential guarantee for the sustainable development of society. Network entropy theory provides a critical research paradigm for the study of the stability of the interbank market. Considering that few scholars have conducted in-depth analysis on the influencing factors of the network entropy’s evolution process, this paper constructs the stock correlation network entropy model in the Chinese interbank market based on the correlation of stock price fluctuation. It focuses on analyzing the influencing factors in the dynamic evolution process of the stock correlation network entropy. In the light of empirical research, we can obtain the following results. First, the interbank market network’s aggregation coefficient, the interbank market network’s centrality, and the bank stock’s return rate play a positive role in the dynamic evolution of stock correlation network entropy in the Chinese interbank market. Second, the bank stock return’s volatility is negatively correlated with its network entropy. To maintain the stability of the financial market, the supervision department can monitor the stability of the interbank market by constructing the stock correlation network entropy.

Modeling Sources of Asymmetry in the Volatility of the Moroccan Dirham Exchange Rate

The main objective of this paper is to study the sources of asymmetry in the volatility of the bilateral exchange rates of the Moroccan dirham (MAD), against the EUR and the USD using the asymmetric econometric models of the ARCH-GARCH family. An empirical analysis was conducted on daily central bank data from March 2003 to March 2021, with a sample size of 4575 observations. Central bank intervention in the foreign exchange (interbank) market was found to affect the asymmetry in the volatility of the bilateral EUR/MAD and USD/MAD exchange rates. Specifically, sales of foreign exchange reserves by the monetary authority cause a fall in the exchange rate, which means that the market response to shocks is asymmetric. Finally, the selection criterion (AIC) allowed us to conclude that the asymmetric model AR(1)-TGARCH(1,1) is adequate for modeling the volatility of the exchange rate of the Moroccan dirham.

Market Discipline in the Interbank Market: Evidence from an Emerging Country

This study provides one of the first evidence of the market discipline in the interbank market of the Vietnamese banking system after the global financial crisis. Based on the data of 19 commercial banks listed in Vietnam from 2010 to 2019, our empirical results suggest a weak interbank discipline in the Vietnamese banking system. Banks seem to be interested in the liquidity ratio of their fellows, especially for smaller banks, whereas they pay more attention to asset quality in the case of larger banks. We believe our study is of interest to regulators and policymakers in Vietnam

The Determinants of the Nondefaultable Spreads of Corporate Bonds: Evidence from China

This study investigates the factors impacting the price difference between the interbank market and the exchange market for the same bond using a large transaction dataset from July 2006 to June 2016 in China. We find that market liquidity and macrofactors mainly affect the price difference between the two markets for the same bond. And individual bond liquidity explains only a small part of the price difference. We also find that the interaction between liquidity and credit risk is an important factor affecting the price difference, and the effect is greater during financial crisis.