Determining the economic impact of cryptocurrency adoption on international trade from a gravity model framework

As cryptocurrencies develop and circulate at greater rates, countries have appeared to consider the technology as an adoptable medium of exchange. By expanding the influence of cryptocurrencies through adoption, countries raise its impact on the global economy. This paper is the first to apply an augmented version of the gravity model to examine the effects of global cryptocurrency adoption on international trade. This empirical study involves aggregating datasets on U.S. bilateral trade flows, gravity variable statistics, and the adoption of cryptocurrencies. In application of the gravity model, regression analyses are used on the aggregated data to test the magnitude of cryptocurrencies’ impact on trade. Based on the overall findings, the variables for cryptocurrency adoption produce negative coefficients suggesting a negative correlation between the adoption of cryptocurrencies and international trade. The central tendency in the empirical evidence offers the interpretation that countries with weak institutions to promote trade are more likely to adopt cryptocurrencies resulting in a negative association between cryptocurrency adoption and trade.

Determinants of Bilateral Trade Flows Between Vietnam and Trading Partner Countries – Gravity Model Approach

This study uses the gravity model to investigate the bilateral trade flows between Vietnam and 52 countries from 2001 through 2011. The data are collected from International Trade Centre (ITC), International Monetary Fund (IMF), and the World Bank (WB). The results show that economic size, geographical distance, economic distance, technological innovation, trade openness, free trade agreement, population, exchange rate, and common border affect the bilateral trade flows between Vietnam and these 52 countries. More importantly, this study uses the speed-of-convergence method to find new potential trading partners for Vietnam, such as those in Africa and Southwest Asia.

Assessing the Effects of Logistics Performance on Energy Trade

Logistics has become one of the most important economic sectors. It significantly affects the transport infrastructure and many other sectors that are crucial for the country’s development. It is the factor that also influences trade efficiency. However, the question arises if logistics performance is significant for the trade of critical goods which are energy raw products. The aim of the paper is primarily to investigate the EU energy trade flows in general and to estimate the effect of logistics performance on the international trade of energy raw products. The energy raw products are grouped into solid, liquid, and gaseous products, and separate estimates are made for their export and import. The analysis also differentiates between the trade flows, that is export and import within the EU and trade flows between EU member states and third countries. The empirical model is based on the theory of gravity model extended to include the six subcomponents of the Logistics Performance Index (LPI). The results present that: (1) the standard gravity model variables, such as GDPs of reporter and partner countries and contiguity, are successful in explaining the trade flows of solid and liquid raw energy but in case of gas products, are insignificant; (2) the results indicate that all logistics’ performance subcomponents are highly significant and show positive effects on the export of liquid energy products, while for the solid and gas products, it seems to be insignificant when the energy commodities are more complex and costly to transport and store, and therefore, contiguity, i.e., when countries share a common border, positively affects energy trade.; (3) the EU imports most liquid energy products, but is generally very dependent on energy imports. EU policymakers should strive to either make more use of domestic resources or switch more to renewable energy sources

Features of intraregional trade turnover of Southern Federal District

The economic interaction of the constituent entities of Russian Federation is manifested in the strengthening of mutual trade contacts between them. An indicator of mutual trade between regions is intraregional trade turnover. The purpose of this article was to identify and substantiate the features of the intraregional trade turnover of Southern Federal District based on data on its levels, dynamics and structure. At the same time, the trade turnover was considered as a result of the development of mutual trade flows and an indicator of the effectiveness of trade and economic relations between regions. In the course of the study, the economic and statistical method prevailed, associated with the calculation, analysis and interpretation of relative statistical indicators, their visualization through graphic-analytical images. Based on the system of statistical indicators, the article examines the specific features of intraregional trade turnover of Southern Federal District in comparison with data from other federal districts of Russia and national levels. Southern Federal District occupies insignificant positions in the ranking of the federal districts of Russia in terms of retail and wholesale turnover, which does not correspond to its resource, production and demographic potential. The authors identified the following features of intraregional trade in Southern Federal District: the predominance of the segment of private trade enterprises in retail trade; a high share of the market and fair trade format in the sale of consumer goods; dominance of stationary outlets in retail turnover; expansion of network retail. The materials of this article have analytical significance and can be used as an information basis for making managerial decisions in the field of regional economic policy to activate mutual trade flows of the regions of Southern Federal District and expand mutual trade contacts between them.

Effect of Productive Capacities on Economic Complexity: Do Aid for Trade Flows Matter?

This is the first study to examine the effect of productive capacities on economic complexity and understand whether the Aid for Trade (AfT) flows is important for this effect in recipient countries. The analysis uses a sample of 126 developed and developing countries for 2002-2018 and adopts the two-step system Generalized Method of Moments approach. Results show that strengthening productive capacities enhances economic complexity. Furthermore, productive capacities and total AfT flows are strongly complementary in positively affecting economic complexity, and the degree of complementarity is higher for poor countries than for other AfT-recipient countries. Similarly, productive capacities are strongly complementary with total Non-AfT flows, as well as for total development aid. These findings highlight the need for scaling-up development aid flows, notably AfT flows, in favor of developing countries and poor countries having the lowest levels of productive capacities.

Trade Potential in Arab Nations: The Case of the GCC and PAFTA

We examine trade flows for Arab nations concentrating on the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) and Pan-Arab Free Trade Area (PAFTA) areas, to identify opportunities to enhance intra-Arab trade and facilitate regional integration. We employ panel data for the years 2003–2017 and a structural gravity model together with an “aggregate” trade potential measure that treats the GCC and PAFTA areas as single countries. Results suggest that, by 2015, intra-area trade had reached maximum capacity for both blocs. Potential to trade also reached capacity with many of the largest Free Trade Areas around the world, however, opportunities for trade expansion that still exist with the MERCOSUR and ASEAN, as well as many distinct destinations, can assist in strategic planning to enhance integration efforts.

PENGGUNAAN DATA MINING DALAM EKSTENSIFIKASI PENELITIAN ULANG

ABSTRACT Due to increasing volume of international trade, effect on increasing customs document, Customs play a role so that trade flows run without obstacles, this causes inspection of imported goods to be less than optimal, but on the other hand Customs are required to collect state revenues optimally. This study tries to solve this problem from the post-clearance control side with re-examination by construct an analytical data model to predict the suitable classification. This study uses data on the Notification of Imported Goods during 2020 at the Regional Office of DJBC XXX which using a sample of goods that has similarities but has the potential to be misclassified. This study uses the Cross-industry Standard Process for Data Mining (CRISP-DM) model and the Rapid Miner Studio 9.9.2 application. Based on the model formed, the prediction results obtained according to the appropriate classification according to data mining. It also found the factors that most impact to goods classification, the most impact is the Importer status, whereas the least impact is the goods lane. ABSTRAK: Seiring dengan volume perdagangan internasional yang semakin tinggi, jumlah dokumen kepabeanan yang harus diperiksa juga mengalami peningkatan. Hal ini menghambat peran Bea dan Cukai sebagai fasilitator perdagangan yang menyebabkan pemeriksaan barang impor kurang optimal. Di sisi lain, Bea dan Cukai dituntut untuk menghimpun penerimaan negara secara optimum. Penelitian ini mencoba untuk menyelesaikan permasalahan tersebut pada tahap post clearance dengan penelitian ulang, yaitu dengan membangun model data analitik untuk memprediksi klasifikasi barang yang diberitahukan oleh importir sudah sesuai atau belum. Penelitian ini menggunakan data Pemberitahuan Impor Barang selama tahun 2020 pada Kanwil DJBC XXX yang sampel data barangnya memiliki kemiripan tetapi berpotensi salah klasifikasi. Penelitian ini menggunakan model Cross-industry Standard Process for Data Mining (CRISP-DM) dan aplikasi Rapid Miner Studio 9.9.2. Berdasarkan permodelan yang dibentuk, didapatkan hasil prediksi klasifikasi yang sesuai menurut data mining. Didapat pula faktor yang paling memengaruhi kebenaran pemberitahuan klasifikasi barang impor, yaitu status importir, sedangkan yang paling tidak berpengaruh adalah jalur pengeluaran barang impor. Kata Kunci: Penelitian Ulang, Data Analitik, Penerimaan Negara, Klasifikasi Barang

The Impact of Environmental Regulations on Trade Flows: A Focus on Environmental Goods Listed in APEC and OECD

This paper aims to investigate the impact of environmental regulations on trade patterns, in terms of trade in environmental goods listed in Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) and Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). Environmental goods are defined here as those that enable sustainable growth and reduce pollution from human activity. For this reason, issues on environmental goods can be put at the forefront to analyze the linkage between environmental regulations and trade flows in the perspective of international institutions. Within the framework of a gravity model, panel data on 112 exporter countries and 53 importer countries is used at a bilateral level over the period of 1989–2013 to gain an understanding of this trade-environmental regulation nexus. This paper proxies the environmental policies by employing the z-score, which includes three comprehensive environmental indicators. The findings indicate that the strict environmental policies impede the trade, and this effect is greater in terms of the environmental goods listed in APEC compared to the ones listed in OECD. Finally, although these stringent environmental regulations reduce the trade flows, they can help to foster the demand for environmentally-friendly products.