Analyzing Uncertainty in Release Planning: A Method and Experiment for Fixed-Date Release Cycles

Release planning—deciding what features to implement in upcoming releases of a software system—is a critical activity in iterative software development. Many release planning methods exist, but most ignore the inevitable uncertainty in estimating software development effort and business value. The article’s objective is to study whether analyzing uncertainty during release planning generates better release plans than if uncertainty is ignored. To study this question, we have developed a novel release planning method under uncertainty, called BEARS, that models uncertainty using Bayesian probability distributions and recommends release plans that maximize expected net present value and expected punctuality. We then compare release plans recommended by BEARS to those recommended by methods that ignore uncertainty on 32 release planning problems. The experiment shows that BEARS recommends release plans with higher expected net present value and expected punctuality than methods that ignore uncertainty, thereby indicating the harmful effects of ignoring uncertainty during release planning. These results highlight the importance of eliciting and analyzing uncertainty in software effort and value estimations and call for increased research in these areas.

Feasibility Study Fishing Tour Project in Dongkal Village, East Pondok Jagung, North Serpong, South Tangerang City, Banten

The purpose of writing a feasibility study paper on fishing tourism business is to assist the village government in realizing increased economic growth for the community around village. The author also wants to carry out several feasibility measurements in a project development by analyzing, viewing and measuring several measurement indicators using the Net Present Value method, Internal Return Rate, Cost Benefit Ratio, Return on Investment, and Return on Investment Period. Based on the results of the analysis of the financial feasibility test with this method, the authors use a loan interest rate of 11% per year to operate. From the calculation results obtained a positive number of Net Present Value of Rp. 493,276 million, the value of the Internal Rate of Return 12.1388% > 11% (Interest Rate), the value of the Cost Benefit Ratio 1.5165 > 1, with a payback period of 3.0825 years < 5 years (Bank loan repayment period).

Does the Net Present Value as a Financial Metric Fit Investment in Green Energy Security?

Surprisingly, little is known whether the net present value (NPV) used as a financial metric in budgeting and investment planning to analyse a projects’ profitability is universal. Meanwhile, the epochal green energy revolution ensuring carbon neutrality through green innovations requires enormous investments, and projects realised must ensure energy security. Therefore, there is a need to reanalyse financial metrics used in financial planning, including NPV. We eliminate this research gap and, based on data from Poland, Romania, Hungary, Croatia, the USA, the United Kingdom, Japan, Israel, and Euro Zone, explain why one may not perceive the currently used NPV formula as a universal financial metric. We show that the variable discount rate influences the time value of money. Therefore, there is a need to redefine the NPV formula. This study makes two main contributions. First, it creates new ground by revisiting the NPV formula in the emerging market context compared to stable economies and contributes to developing business and management theory. Second, we propose and empirically verify the modified NPV formula as a financial metric that considers the situation of energy firms in emerging markets. Thus, this research helps the capital budgeting process, and the modified NPV formula can help provide optimal outcomes in firms, helping to reduce financial risks. Our study contributes to a further contextual diagnosis of business projects and can, in turn, be relevant for other energy sector analyses.

Kajian Bisnis Plan PT CAP Tentang Hunian Rumah Di Kelurahan Semanan Jakarta Barat Tahun 2020-2024

Penelitian ini merupakan penelitian operasional (OR) prediktif studi, dimaksudkan untuk membuat perhitungan tentang kelayakan rencana bisnis dengan mempertimbangkan berbagai faktor. Pendekatan yang digunakan adalah kualitatif, untuk mengkaji rencana bisnis yang dibuat oleh PT CAP dalam melakukan ekspansi bisnis di bidang propresi di wilayah Jakarta Barat.Dari hasil penelitian yang telah penulis lakukan, didapatkan payback period didapatkan alternatif normal normal 36 bulan, alternatif optimis 24 bulan. Hasil ini jauh lebih kecil dari ketentuan manajemen 4 tahun, sehingga proyek ini layak untuk diterima. Analisis Net Present Value, dari hasil perhitungan NPV cash flow masih jauh lebih besar dari NPV cash outflow, artinya dari penilaian NPV proyek ini dinilai sangat layak untuk dilaksanakan. Internal Rate of Return (IRR) proyek ini layak karena jika mencari IRR, alternatif normal dan optimis lebih besar daripada biaya modal rata-rata tertimbang (WACC). Berdasarkan hasil analisis dan perhitungan yang telah dilakukan penulis sehubungan dengan proyek kawasan perumahan Citra Garden Puri Semanan di Semanan, Jakarta Barat, secara umum investasi tersebut dinilai layak dan menguntungkan tidak hanya bagi pengembang tetapi juga bagi konsumen yang membeli rumah di proyek tersebut. . Memperhatikan apa yang telah dianalisis dan dibahas, maka saran penulis adalah mengecek kembali arus kas dengan mempertimbangkan mencari alternatif pendanaan dengan pinjaman yang meningkat sehingga biaya modalnya kecil. Kata Kunci : Payback Period, NPV, IRR

Profil Usaha Pemindangan Ikan pada Sentra Pengolahan Ikan Kota Magelang

Kota Magelang memiliki potensi sektor perikanan dengan produksi kegiatan pengolahan ikan yang cukup tinggi. Pengembangan sektor pengolahan ikan di Kota Magelang didukung dengan keberadaan Sentra Pengolahan Ikan, dengan produk utama berupa olahan pindang duri lunak. Unit pengolahan ikan (UPI) pemindangan di Sentra Pengolahan Ikan memiliki produksi terbesar di Kota Magelang, dengan pengolah di UPI tersebut merupakan anggota kelompok pengolah ikan yang ada. Produksi Sentra Pengolahan Ikan Kota Magelang pada tahun 2020 sebesar 249.830 kg, dengan daerah pemasaran di Kota Magelang dan daerah sekitarnya. Tujuan penelitian adalah mengetahui proses pemindangan ikan, menganalisis kelayakan usaha pemindangan ikan serta penerapan mutu pada kegiatan pemindangan ikan di Sentra Pengolahan Ikan Kota Magelang. Metode penelitian adalah analisis deskriptif, dengan perhitungan kelayakan usaha menggunakan pendekatan Net Present Value (NPV), Benefit Cost Ratio (B/C Ratio), Internal Rate of Return (IRR) dan Payback Period (PP). Hasil penelitian menunjukkan usaha pemindangan ikan di Sentra Pengolahan Ikan Kota Magelang merupakan usaha skala kecil dan pengolahan ikan dilakukan secara tradisional, perlu peningkatan penerapan mutu pada proses pengolahan ikan yang dilakukan. Usaha pemindangan ikan layak (feasible) untuk dilanjutkan dan dikembangkan secara ekonomis, dengan nilai NPV 10 % Rp 356.293.000, B/C Ratio 1,11, IRR 56 % dan PP 1,14 tahun.

Economics and Marketing of Olive in Punjab, Pakistan

The recent re-emergence of agrarian crises in Punjab has again drawn the attention of policymakers towards the viability of alternative crops. In this context, the study attempts production and marketing of one of the alternatives and viable crops (i.e., Olive) considered for the farmers in Punjab, Pakistan. The study was carried out in the Pothwar region of Punjab, and a total of 100 farmers were interviewed from four districts of Pothwar. The study results revealed that olive is a profitable crop since the benefit-cost ratio, net present value, and internal rate of return at a 10% rate of discount were 2.20, Rs. 263,338.00, and 31%, respectively. The findings also revealed that the channel with the least number of intermediaries was more efficient than the channels with more intermediaries. The study suggested that to take advantage of this new crop, controlled marketplaces with improved marketing facilities are needed to allow farmers to minimize their transport costs and achieve better prices for their products. Besides, linking fresh produce with agro-processing industries can go a long way in ensuring the returns from this crop.

Kelayakan finansial teknologi produksi benih bawang merah asal biji botani (True Seed of Shallot = TSS) (Financial feasibility of True Seed of Shallot seed production technology)

<p>Penelitian dilaksanakan di Kebun Percobaan Margahayu, Balai Penelitian Tanaman Sayuran pada Maret-November 2018. Tujuan penelitian adalah mengestimasi kelayakan finansial teknologi produksi benih bawang merah TSS (True Seed of Shallot). Percobaan lapangan produksi benih dilakukan untuk luasan 1.500 m2. Keragaan usahatani dievaluasi melalui analisis anggaran usaha berdasarkan pencatatan usahatani. Sementara itu, kelayakan finansial dianalisis menggunakan NPV (Net Present Value), IRR (Internal Rate of Return), B/C ratio (Benefit Cost Ratio) dan PBP (Pay Back Period). Hasil analisis anggaran menghasilkan indikator keragaan produksi benih sebagai berikut: (a) biaya produksi Rp. 255.320.280/hektar, (b) rasio penerimaan-biaya 1,49, (c) titik impas produksi 102 kg/hektar, dan (d) titik impas harga Rp. 1.789.628/kg. Analisis finansial berdasarkan parameter: periode proyeksi 3 tahun; aliran kas 12 bulan; suku bunga 18%/tahun; proporsi modal 40% (sendiri) dan 60% (kredit); luas lahan 1 hektar; produktivitas 150 kg/ha; dan harga output Rp. 2.500.000/kg menghasilkan NPV = Rp. -108.564.638 (&lt;0), IRR = sampai tingkat bunga 2% masih menunjukkan besaran NPV yang negatif (&lt;18%), Net B/C Ratio = 0,62 (&lt; 1), dan PBP = 1,5 tahun (&lt; 3 tahun). Berbagai kriteria tersebut mengindikasikan bahwa usahatani produksi benih TSS belum dapat dikategorikan layak secara finansial. Analisis sensitivitas menunjuk-kan bahwa kelayakan finansial baru tercapai jika terjadi pengurangan biaya produksi minimal 22%. Kelayakan finansial juga dapat dicapai jika terjadi minimal 15% peningkatan produktivitas atau 15% peningkatan harga benih. Penelitian ini menyarankan studi lebih lanjut untuk mengidentifikasi agroekosistem produksi paling ideal berpotensi produktivitas optimal, serta memperbaiki teknologi produksi benih TSS berorientasi peningkatan produktivitas dan efisiensi penggunaan input. </p><p><strong>Keywords</strong></p><p>produksi benih; benih biji botani bawang; analisis anggaran; kelayakan finansial</p><p><strong>Abstract</strong></p><p>A trial of 1,500 m2 seed production was conducted in the Indonesian Vegetable Research Institute during March-November 2018. The objective was to assess the financial feasibility of True Seed of Shallot (TSS) seed production technology. Farm performance was assessed by using enterprise budget, NPV (Net Present Value), IRR (Internal Rate of Return), B/C ratio (Benefit Cost Ratio), and PBP (Pay Back Period). Budget analysis results in (a) production costs of IDR 255,320,280/ ha, (b) revenue-cost ratio of 1.49, (c) 102 kg/ha yield break-even-point, and (d) IDR 1,789,628/kg price break-even-point. Meanwhile, financial analysis based on some predetermined parameters has provided NPV = IDR -108,564,638 (&lt;0), IRR = up to 2% interest rate still shows negative NPV value (&lt;18%), Net B/C Ratio = 0.62 (&lt;1), and PBP = 1.5 years (&lt;3 years). Those criteria suggest that TSS seed production business is not yet categorized as financially feasible. Sensitivity analysis shows that financial feasibility may be achieved if there is minimally 22% reduced cost of production, or 15% increased yield, or 15% increased seed price. Further studies on identifying the most ideal agro-ecosystem with optimal yield potential, and improving TSS technology with an orientation to increasing yield and input-use efficiency are recommended.</p>

Randomized Estimation of the Net Present Value of a Residential Housing Development

Randomized estimation of the net present value of a housing development allows for the assessment of the efficiency of projects in random implementation conditions. The efficiency of a project is estimated on the basis of primary input data, usually used in project planning. For this purpose, random disturbances are identified that may randomly affect the course and results of the project. The probability and severity of disturbances are determined. The primary initial data is then randomized, and a randomized probabilistic index of the project’s net present value is calculated, the value of which indicates whether the project is profitable or whether implementation should be stopped. Based on this data, the expected total revenue, the expected total cost, the expected gross profit, and the net present value of the randomized performance of the project are calculated. The values of these are estimated for expected, favorable, and unfavorable conditions of implementation. Finally, the risks for the total revenue and total cost of the project are calculated and plotted for comparative revenue values in the range [1, 0] and cost in the range [0, 1]. Their analysis makes it possible to make the right investment decisions before starting the investment at the preparation stage.