On the origin of the Early Iron Age Kashino population of Western Siberia (archaeological and dental non-metric data evidence)

In this study, based on the analysis of the dental characteristics of the series from the burial ground Abatsky-3 (III–V centuries AD) we considered the questions of the origin of the Kashin population of Western Siberia of the early Iron Age. Despite the small number of the studied sample (16 individuals), the detailed morphological characteristics and the results of multivariate statistical analysis made it possible to clarify a number of hypotheses about the origins and relationships of the Early Iron Age Kashino population of Western Siberia. The specificity of the Kashino population from the Abatsky-3 burial ground lies in a high predominance of the “Eastern” dental non-metric complex, namely, in the high frequencies of the 6-cusps lower molars, the distal trigonid crest, and, to a lesser extent, the deflecting wrinkle on the first lower molars. This complex of characteristics clearly differentiates this population from the groups of the Bronze Age and the Early Iron Age of Western Siberia and adjacent territories. According to the results of our study, it can be assumed that populations of the Kashino and Sargat cultures (latter is the closest to the representatives of the Kashino culture in the territorial and cultural terms) have different origin and their contacts were based more on cultural rather than population interactions. The results of the analysis favor to the hypothesis of the penetration of the Kama population related to the Ananyino and Glyadenovo cultures into the Trans-Urals and suggest the contribution of the Ananyino groups in the formation of the Kashino population.

Modelling Heterogeneity and Super Spreaders of the COVID-19 Spread through Malaysian Networks

Malaysia is multi-ethnic and diverse country. Heterogeneity, in terms of population interactions, is ingrained in the foundation of the country. Malaysian policies and social distancing measures are based on daily infections and R0 (average number of infections per infected person), estimated from the data. Models of the Malaysian COVID-19 spread are mostly based on the established SIR compartmental model and its variants. These models usually assume homogeneity and symmetrical full mixing in the population; thus, they are unable to capture super-spreading events which naturally occur due to heterogeneity. Moreover, studies have shown that when heterogeneity is present, R0 may be very different and even possibly misleading. The underlying spreading network is a crucial element, as it introduces heterogeneity for a more representative and realistic model of the spread through specific populations. Heterogeneity introduces more complexities in the modelling due to its asymmetrical nature of infection compared to the relatively symmetrical SIR compartmental model. This leads to a different way of calculating R0 and defining super-spreaders. Quantifying a super-spreader individual is related to the idea of importance in a network. The definition of a super-spreading individual depends on how super-spreading is defined. Even when the spreading is defined, it may not be clear that a single centrality always correlates with super-spreading, since centralities are network dependent. We proposed using a measure of super-spreading directly related to R0 and that will give a measure of ‘spreading’ regardless of the underlying network. We captured the vulnerability for varying degrees of heterogeneity and initial conditions by defining a measure to quantify the chances of epidemic spread in the simulations. We simulated the SIR spread on a real Malaysian network to illustrate the effects of this measure and heterogeneity on the number of infections. We also simulated super-spreading events (based on our definition) within the bounds of heterogeneity to demonstrate the effectiveness of the newly defined measure. We found that heterogeneity serves as a natural curve-flattening mechanism; therefore, the number of infections and R0 may be lower than expected. This may lead to a false sense of security, especially since heterogeneity makes the population vulnerable to super-spreading events.

Theoretical Clues for Agroecological Transitions: The Conuco Legacy and the Monoculture Trap

The multiple ecological crisis that we are facing forces us to ponder the transition toward sustainable agricultural systems. Two key uncertainties need to be unveiled in addressing this problem; first, we need to identify the general features of alternative models that make them sustainable, and second, we need to explore how to build them from the (flawed) existing systems. In this work we explore these two questions using an ethnoecological and theoretical approach. In the exploration of alternative models, we evaluate an ancestral farming system, the conuco, characterized by, (i) the use of the ecological succession to constantly renew its properties, (ii) the increase of its biodiversity over time (in the horizontal and vertical components), and (iii) the self-regulation of the associated populations. Next, we characterize the topology of ecological networks of agroecosystems along the transition from a monoculture to a conuco-like agroecological system. We use topologies obtained from field information of conventional and agroecological systems as starting and arrival points. To model the dynamics of the systems and numerically simulate the transitions, we use a model based on Generalized Lotka-Volterra equations, where all types of population interactions are represented, with outcomes based on a density-dependent conditionality. The results highlight the relevance of increasing the connectance and diminishing the degree centrality of the conventional systems networks to promote their sustainability. Finally, we propose that the transitions between the monoculture and the agroecological systems could be figuratively interpreted as a cusp catastrophe, where the two systems are understood as alternative stable states and the path from one to the other cannot be reverted by just reversing the values of the control parameter. That is, once a system is in either of these states there is a tendency to stay and a resistance to move away from it. This implies that in the process of transition from a monoculture to a multi-diverse system, it is prudent not to despair if there are no immediate improvements in the performance of the system because once a certain point is reached, the system may experience an abrupt improvement.

Hyperendemicity associated with increased dengue burden

Over 105 million dengue infections are estimated to occur annually. Understanding the disease dynamics of dengue is often difficult due to multiple strains circulating within a population. Interactions between dengue serotype dynamics may result in complex cross-immunity dynamics at the population level and create difficulties in terms of formulating intervention strategies for the disease. In this study, a nationally representative 16-year time series with over 43 000 serotyped dengue infections was used to infer the long-run effects of between and within strain interactions and their impacts on past outbreaks. We used a novel identification strategy incorporating sign-identified Bayesian vector autoregressions, using structural impulse responses, historical decompositions and counterfactual analysis to conduct inference on dengue dynamics post-estimation. We found that on the population level: (i) across-serotype interactions on the population level were highly persistent, with a one time increase in any other serotype associated with long run decreases in the serotype of interest (range: 0.5–2.5 years) and (ii) over 38.7% of dengue cases of any serotype were associated with across-serotype interactions. The findings in this paper will substantially impact public health policy interventions with respect to dengue.

Inter-Island Mobility and Social Change in Tidore Kepulauan City, North Maluku

This research uses a qualitative approach to explore inter-Island mobility and social change in Tidore Island, North Maluku. Data obtained from observations and interviews show that social change in Tidore occurred due to the dynamic factors of cross-island population mobility in recent years. Data were divided into groups of those who are working semi-permanently and those who are commuting to work (commuters). The main factors triggering inter-island population interactions in Tidore City are the need for labor supply, basic commodities in the food and logistic sector, as well as support services from several groups. Conversely, this town is the center of government services with labor suppliers in the formal sector (government) and service economy. It also depends on certain commodities that can only be supplied from the surrounding Island (Halmahera). The research analysis shows that infrastructure (transportation) availability contributes to the intention of local government and the community to create new economic centers in the form of regional commodity markets and additional ports to support population mobility as active mediators for the sustainability of socio-economic development in this region.

Autosomal Microsatellite Investigation Reveals Multiple Genetic Components of the Highlanders from Thailand

The hill tribes of northern Thailand comprise nine officially recognized groups: the Austroasiatic-speaking (AA) Khmu, Htin and Lawa; the Hmong-Mien-speaking (HM) IuMien and Hmong; and the Sino-Tibetan-speaking (ST) Akha, Karen, Lahu and Lisu. Except the Lawa, the rest of the hill tribes migrated into their present habitats only very recently. The Thai hill tribes were of much interest to research groups focusing on study of cultural and genetic variation because of their unique languages and cultures. So far, there have been several genetic studies of the Thai hill tribes. However, complete forensic microsatellite database of the Thai hill tribes is still lacking. To construct such database, we newly generated 654 genotypes of 15 microsatellites commonly used in forensic investigation that belong to all the nine hill tribes and also non-hill tribe highlanders from northern Thailand. We also combined 329 genotypes from previous studies of northern Thai populations bringing to a total of 983 genotypes, which were then subjected to genetic structure and population relationships analyses. Our overall results indicated homogenous genetic structure within the HM- and Tai-Kadai (TK)-speaking groups, large genetic divergence of the HM-speaking Hmong but not IuMien from the other Thai groups, and genetic heterogeneity within the ST- and AA-speaking groups, reflecting different population interactions and admixtures. In addition to establishing genetic relationships within and among these populations, our finding, which provides a more complete picture of the forensic microsatellite database of the multiple Thai highland dwellers, would not only serve to expand and strengthen forensic investigation in Thailand, but would also benefit its neighboring countries of Laos and Myanmar, from which many of the Thai hill tribes originated and where large populations of these ethnic groups still reside.

Retiring “cradles” and “museums” of biodiversity

In 1974, G. Ledyard Stebbins provided a metaphor illustrating how spatial gradients of biodiversity observed today are byproducts of the way environment–population interactions drive species diversification through time. We revisit the narrative behind Stebbins’ “cradles” and “museums” of biodiversity to debate two points. First, the usual “high speciation” vs. “low extinction” and “tropical” vs. “temperate” dichotomies are oversimplifications of the original metaphor and may obscure how gradients of diversity are formed. Second, the way in which we use modern gradients of biodiversity to interpret the potential historical processes that generated them are often still biased by the reasons that motivated Stebbins to propose his original metaphor. Specifically, the field has not yet abandoned the idea that species-rich areas and “basal lineages” indicate centers of origin, nor has it fully appreciated the role of traits as regulators of environment–population dynamics. We acknowledge the popularity of “cradles” and “museums” in the literature and that terminologies can evolve with the requirements of the field. However, we also argue that “cradles” and “museums” have outlived their utility in studies of biogeography and macroevolution and should be replaced by discussions of actual processes at play.

Feedforward and feedback interactions between visual cortical areas use different population activity patterns

Brain function relies on the coordination of activity across multiple, recurrently connected, brain areas. For instance, sensory information encoded in early sensory areas is relayed to, and further processed by, higher cortical areas and then fed back. However, the way in which feedforward and feedback signaling interact with one another is incompletely understood. Here we investigate this question by leveraging simultaneous neuronal population recordings in early and midlevel visual areas (V1-V2 and V1-V4). Using a dimensionality reduction approach, we find that population interactions are feedforward-dominated shortly after stimulus onset and feedback-dominated during spontaneous activity. The population activity patterns most correlated across areas were distinct during feedforward- and feedback-dominated periods. These results suggest that feedforward and feedback signaling rely on separate “channels”, such that feedback signaling does not directly affect activity that is fed forward.

Reconstructing the human genetic history of mainland Southeast Asia: insights from genome-wide data from Thailand and Laos

Thailand and Laos, located in the center of Mainland Southeast Asia (MSEA), harbor diverse ethnolinguistic groups encompassing all five language families of MSEA: Tai-Kadai (TK), Austroasiatic (AA), Sino-Tibetan (ST), Hmong-Mien (HM) and Austronesian (AN). Previous genetic studies of Thai/Lao populations have focused almost exclusively on uniparental markers and there is a paucity of genome-wide studies. We therefore generated genome-wide SNP data for 33 ethnolinguistic groups, belonging to the five MSEA language families from Thailand and Laos, and analysed these together with data from modern Asian populations and SEA ancient samples. Overall, we find genetic structure according to language family, albeit with heterogeneity in the AA-, HM- and ST-speaking groups, and in the hill tribes, that reflects both population interactions and genetic drift. For the TK speaking groups, we find localized genetic structure that is driven by different levels of interaction with other groups in the same geographic region. Several Thai groups exhibit admixture from South Asia, which we date to ∼600-1000 years ago, corresponding to a time of intensive international trade networks that had a major cultural impact on Thailand. An AN group from Southern Thailand shows both South Asian admixture as well as overall affinities with AA-speaking groups in the region, suggesting an impact of cultural diffusion. Overall, we provide the first detailed insights into the genetic profiles of Thai/Lao ethnolinguistic groups, which should be helpful for reconstructing human genetic history in MSEA and selecting populations for participation in ongoing whole genome sequence and biomedical studies.

How Thermodynamics Illuminates Population Interactions in Microbial Communities

In traditional population models of microbial ecology, there are two central players: producers and consumers (including decomposers that depend on organic carbon). Producers support surface ecosystems by generating adenosine triphosphate (ATP) from sunlight, part of which is used to build new biomass from carbon dioxide. In contrast, the productivity of subsurface ecosystems with a limited supply of sunlight must rely on bacteria and archaea that are able generate ATP solely from chemical or electric energy to fix inorganic carbon. These “light-independent producers” are frequently not included in traditional food webs, even though they are ubiquitous in nature and interact with one another through the utilization of the by-products of others. In this review, we introduce theoretical approaches based on population dynamics that incorporate thermodynamics to highlight characteristic interactions in the microbial community of subsurface ecosystems, which may link community structures and ecosystem expansion under conditions of a limited supply of sunlight. In comparison with light-dependent producers, which compete with one another for light, the use of Gibbs free energy (chemical energy) can lead cooperative interactions among light-independent producers through the effects of the relative quantities of products and reactants on the available chemical energy, which is termed abundant resource premium. The development of a population theory that incorporates thermodynamics offers fundamental ecological insights into subsurface microbial ecosystems, which may be applied to fields of study such as environmental science/engineering, astrobiology, or the microbial ecosystems of the early earth.