Recent natural variability in global warming weakened phenological mismatch and selection on seasonal timing in great tits ( Parus major )

Climate change has led to phenological shifts in many species, but with large variation in magnitude among species and trophic levels. The poster child example of the resulting phenological mismatches between the phenology of predators and their prey is the great tit ( Parus major ), where this mismatch led to directional selection for earlier seasonal breeding. Natural climate variability can obscure the impacts of climate change over certain periods, weakening phenological mismatching and selection. Here, we show that selection on seasonal timing indeed weakened significantly over the past two decades as increases in late spring temperatures have slowed down. Consequently, there has been no further advancement in the date of peak caterpillar food abundance, while great tit phenology has continued to advance, thereby weakening the phenological mismatch. We thus show that the relationships between temperature, phenologies of prey and predator, and selection on predator phenology are robust, also in times of a slowdown of warming. Using projected temperatures from a large ensemble of climate simulations that take natural climate variability into account, we show that prey phenology is again projected to advance faster than great tit phenology in the coming decades, and therefore that long-term global warming will intensify phenological mismatches.

Natural climate variability is an important aspect of future projections of snow water resources and rain-on-snow events

Climate projection studies of future changes in snow conditions and resulting rain-on-snow (ROS) flood events are subject to large uncertainties. Typically, emission scenario uncertainties and climate model uncertainties are included. This is the first study on this topic to also include quantification of natural climate variability, which is the dominant uncertainty for precipitation at local scales with large implications for e.g. runoff projections. To quantify natural climate variability, a weather generator was applied to simulate inherently consistent climate variables for multiple realizations of current and future climates at 100 m spatial and hourly temporal resolution over a 12 × 12 km high-altitude study area in the Swiss Alps. The output of the weather generator was used as input for subsequent simulations with an energy balance snow model. The climate change signal for snow water resources stands out as early as mid-century from the noise originating from the three sources of uncertainty investigated, namely uncertainty in emission scenarios, uncertainty in climate models, and natural climate variability. For ROS events, a climate change signal toward more frequent and intense events was found for an RCP 8.5 scenario at high elevations at the end of the century, consistently with other studies. However, for ROS events with a substantial contribution of snowmelt to runoff (>20 %), the climate change signal was largely masked by sources of uncertainty. Only those ROS events where snowmelt does not play an important role during the event will occur considerably more frequently in the future, while ROS events with substantial snowmelt contribution will mainly occur earlier in the year but not more frequently. There are two reasons for this: first, although it will rain more frequently in midwinter, the snowpack will typically still be too cold and dry and thus cannot contribute significantly to runoff; second, the very rapid decline in snowpack toward early summer, when conditions typically prevail for substantial contributions from snowmelt, will result in a large decrease in ROS events at that time of the year. Finally, natural climate variability is the primary source of uncertainty in projections of ROS metrics until the end of the century, contributing more than 70 % of the total uncertainty. These results imply that both the inclusion of natural climate variability and the use of a snow model, which includes a physically-based processes representation of water retention, are important for ROS projections at the local scale.

A Second Benchmarking Exercise on Estimating Extreme Environmental Conditions: Methodology & Baseline Results

Estimating extreme environmental conditions remains a key challenge in the design of offshore structures. This paper describes an exercise for benchmarking methods for extreme environmental conditions, which follows on from an initial benchmarking exercise introduced at OMAE 2019. In this second exercise, we address the problem of estimating extreme metocean conditions in a variable and changing climate. The study makes use of several very long datasets from a global climate model, including a 165-year historical run, a 700-year pre-industrial control run, which represents a quasi-steady state climate, and several runs under various future emissions scenarios. The availability of the long datasets allows for an in-depth analysis of the uncertainties in the estimated extreme conditions and an attribution of the relative importance of uncertainties resulting from modelling choices, natural climate variability, and potential future changes to the climate. This paper outlines the methodology for the second collaborative benchmarking exercise as well as presenting baseline results for the selected datasets.

The glacial history of Rocky Top cirque, southeast Fiordland, New Zealand

<p><b>Understanding natural climate variability is a fundamental goal of paleoclimate science. Temperate mountain glaciers are sensitive to climate variability, changing volume, and thus thickness and length, in response to changes in temperature and precipitation. Glaciers deposit moraines at their margins, which if well-preserved may provide evidence of glacier length fluctuations following glacial retreat. Therefore mountain glaciers can be used as proxies to investigate past climatic changes, offering the potential to reconstruct the timing and magnitude of natural climate variability and paleoclimate for the former glacier extent(s). </b></p><p>This study applies methods of detailed geomorphological mapping and cosmogenic 10Be surface exposure dating to establish a high-precision moraine chronology and examine the timing and magnitude of glacier length changes at Rocky Top cirque. A quantitative reconstruction of paleoclimate for the identified former glacier extents was produced using an equilibrium-line altitude (ELA) reconstruction method and application of a temperature lapse rate. Findings show a clear pattern of glacial retreat at the end of the Last Glacial Maximum, with exposure ages from moraine boulders successfully constraining the timing of five distinct periods of glacier readvance or standstills. The most recent glacial event at Rocky Top cirque occurred between 17342 ± 172 yrs BP and during this period the ELA was depressed by 611 m. The second innermost moraine produced an indistinguishable age of 17196 ± 220 yrs BP and had an ELA depression of 616 m, indicating rapid glacial retreat. Progressively older moraines produced surface exposure ages of 18709 ± 237 and 19629 ± 308 yrs BP, with ELA depressions of 618 and 626 m respectively. The oldest moraine of 34608 ± 8437 yrs BP had insufficient geomorphic constraint to produce an ELA. Paleoclimate reconstruction results suggest that a best estimate of paleotemperature at the time of moraine formation (~19-17 ka) was between 3.2 ± 0.8 to 3.3 ± 0.8°C cooler than present-day. </p><p>Net retreat of the former glacier is consistent with other similar moraine chronologies from the Southern Alps, which supports the regional trend and suggests that glaciers in the Southern Alps responded to common climatic forcings between ~19-17 ka. </p>

The glacial history of Rocky Top cirque, southeast Fiordland, New Zealand

<p><b>Understanding natural climate variability is a fundamental goal of paleoclimate science. Temperate mountain glaciers are sensitive to climate variability, changing volume, and thus thickness and length, in response to changes in temperature and precipitation. Glaciers deposit moraines at their margins, which if well-preserved may provide evidence of glacier length fluctuations following glacial retreat. Therefore mountain glaciers can be used as proxies to investigate past climatic changes, offering the potential to reconstruct the timing and magnitude of natural climate variability and paleoclimate for the former glacier extent(s). </b></p><p>This study applies methods of detailed geomorphological mapping and cosmogenic 10Be surface exposure dating to establish a high-precision moraine chronology and examine the timing and magnitude of glacier length changes at Rocky Top cirque. A quantitative reconstruction of paleoclimate for the identified former glacier extents was produced using an equilibrium-line altitude (ELA) reconstruction method and application of a temperature lapse rate. Findings show a clear pattern of glacial retreat at the end of the Last Glacial Maximum, with exposure ages from moraine boulders successfully constraining the timing of five distinct periods of glacier readvance or standstills. The most recent glacial event at Rocky Top cirque occurred between 17342 ± 172 yrs BP and during this period the ELA was depressed by 611 m. The second innermost moraine produced an indistinguishable age of 17196 ± 220 yrs BP and had an ELA depression of 616 m, indicating rapid glacial retreat. Progressively older moraines produced surface exposure ages of 18709 ± 237 and 19629 ± 308 yrs BP, with ELA depressions of 618 and 626 m respectively. The oldest moraine of 34608 ± 8437 yrs BP had insufficient geomorphic constraint to produce an ELA. Paleoclimate reconstruction results suggest that a best estimate of paleotemperature at the time of moraine formation (~19-17 ka) was between 3.2 ± 0.8 to 3.3 ± 0.8°C cooler than present-day. </p><p>Net retreat of the former glacier is consistent with other similar moraine chronologies from the Southern Alps, which supports the regional trend and suggests that glaciers in the Southern Alps responded to common climatic forcings between ~19-17 ka. </p>