COPULA FRANK UNTUK PERHITUNGAN VALUE AT RISK PORTOFOLIO BIVARIAT PADA MODEL EXPONENTIAL GENERALIZED AUTOREGRESSIVE CONDITIONAL HETEROSCEDASTICITY

Stocks are one type of investment that promises return for investors but often carries a high risk. Value at Risk (VaR) is a measuring tool that can calculate the amount of the worst loss that occurs in a stock portfolio with a certain level of confidence and within a certain time period. In general, financial data have a high volatility value, which causes the residuals are not normally distributed. ARCH/GARCH modoel is used to solve the heteroscedasticity problem. If the data also have an asymmetric effect, it is modelled with Exponential GARCH model. Copula-Frank is part of the Archimedian copula which is used to solve empirical cases. The data on this study were BBCA and KLBF stock price return data in the observation period 30 December 2011 – 6 December 2019. Furthermore, to test the validity of the VaR model, a backtesting test will be carried out using the Kupiec Test. The results showed that the best model used for BBCA stocks was ARIMA (1,0,1) EGARCH (1,1) and for KLBF stocks was ARIMA (1,0,1) EGARCH (1,2). The amount of risk with a 95% confidence level used a combination of the EGARCH and Copula-Frank models was 2.233% of today's investment. Based on the backtesting test used the Kupiec Test, the VaR model of the portfolio obtained was declared valid.

Does Economic Policy Uncertainty Affect Exchange Rate in China and Japan? Evidence from Threshold Cointegration with Asymmetric Adjustment

In this article, we estimate the links between nominal exchange rates (JPY/USD and CNY/USD) and economic policy uncertainty (EPU) in China and Japan by employing monthly data during the period span from January 1997 to September 2020. The threshold cointegration approach focus in TAR, M-TAR, C-TAR and C-MTAR is used. Results indicate the evidence of asymmetric effect in the adjustment process to equilibrium and the M-TAR is the best model to detect threshold effect for the (CNY/USD-CNYEPU) pair and the C-TAR is the best model to detect threshold effect for the (JPY/USD-JPYEPU) pair.

Assymmetric effect exchange rate to Indonesian agriculture subsector

This study explores the asymmetric effect on the rupiah exchange rate on every subsector agriculture export in Indonesia during 2006-2020. The non-linear ARDL method is used in this study to analyze the asymmetric relationship between exchange rate and export. NARDL method includes short-run and long-run coefficient estimates and embraces the asymmetric effect. The previous studies generally used the linear models on the aggregated data and ignored the differences in each export of the agricultural sub-sector, then they offered ambiguous results. The latest studies have preferred to use the method of NARDL on the agricultural sector in general data. Instead of using agricultural export data for each subsector, this paper considers subsector export data of agriculture. The estimated NARDL results indicate an asymmetric effect of the rupiah exchange rate on exports of the agricultural sub-sector in the long run. In general, there is no asymmetric effect in the short run. Generally, depreciation and appreciation of the Rupiah have a negative effect on exports of the agricultural sub-sector in the long run. However, rupiah appreciation positively impacts lag 2, and depreciation caused a different effect on each sub-sector. The NARDL results suggest that positive movements have lesser impacts than those of negative movements in the exchange rate on the agriculture sector both in the short and long run

Hit Hard but Recover Slowly: The Asymmetric Effects of Social Distancing Policies on the US Labor Market

This study employs a difference-in-differences approach to examine the US labor market response to two widely used social distancing policies, stay-at-home (SAH) order and non-essential business closure, with special attention paid to the asymmetric effect of the policies’ imposition and lifting. Exploiting the variation across states and time, we find that state employment rates declined by 4.3% and 1.9% for the two policies respectively, within one month of the enaction of social distancing policies, but the recovery was slower after the policies were removed. We also highlight that the low-income group suffered the highest employment rate drop from the SAH enaction while presenting the mildest rebound. Self-employed workers were more affected by the policy impositions but recovered slightly faster than wage earners. Our results suggest persistent efforts must be made after the pandemic, especially for more vulnerable groups in the labor market.

How Air Quality Affect Health Industry Stock Returns: New Evidence From the Quantile-on-Quantile Regression

This paper discusses the asymmetric effect of air quality (AQ) on stock returns (SR) in China's health industry through the quantile-on-quantile (QQ) regression method. Compared to prior literature, our study provides the following contributions. Government intervention, especially industrial policy, is considered a fresh and essential component of analyzing frameworks in addition to investors' physiology and psychology. Next, because of the heterogeneous responses from different industries to AQ, industrial heterogeneity is thus considered in this paper. In addition, the QQ method examines the effect of specific quantiles between variables and does not consider structural break and temporal lag effects. We obtain the following empirical results. First, the coefficients between AQ and SR in the health service and health technology industries change from positive to negative as AQ deteriorates. Second, AQ always positively influences the health business industry, but the values of the coefficients are larger in good air. In addition, different from other industries, the coefficients in the health equipment industry are negative, but the values of the coefficients change with AQ. The conclusions provide important references for investors and other market participants to avoid biased decisions due to poor AQ and pay attention to government industrial policies.

Economic Consequences of Covid-19 Pandemic: An Analysis of Exchange Rate Behaviour

This paper examines the effect of Covid-19 on currency exchange rate behaviour by taking a sample of 37 countries over a period from 4th January 2020 to 30th April 2021. Three variables, such as daily confirmed cases, daily deaths, and the world pandemic uncertainty index (WPUI), are taken as the measure of Covid-19. By applying fixed-effect regression, the study documents that the exchange rate behaves positively to the Covid-19 outbreak, particularly to daily confirmed cases and daily deaths, which implies that the value of other currencies against the US dollar has been depreciated. However, the impact of WPUI is insignificant. On studying the time-varying impact of the pandemic, the study reveals that the Covid-19 has an asymmetric impact on exchange rate over different time frames. Further, it is observed that though daily confirmed cases and daily deaths show a uniform effect, WPUI puts an asymmetric effect on the exchange rate owing to the nature of economies.