Influence of Decadal Ocean Signals on Meteorological Conditions Associated With the Winter Haze Over Eastern China

The possible influence of the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO) and the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) on the meteorological conditions associated with haze over central eastern China at decadal time scale was investigated using reanalysis and observational dataset for 1979–2018. Four indices, including Siberian high (SH) strength and position indices (SHI/SHPI), a normalized near-surface wind-speed index (WSI) and a potential air temperature gradient index (ATGI), are adopted to denote the meteorological conditions associated with haze. Results shown that the AMO and PDO are both highly correlated with the fluctuation of meteorological factors associated with haze on decadal scale. Although AMO and PDO were in opposite phases during the whole period, since 1997, they both changed phases (AMO shifted to a positive phase and PDO changed to negative) and became favorable for an anomalous dipole-type SLP pattern in the middle-high latitudes of East Asia. The AMO has played a leading role in decadal variation of the large-scale circulation system, while the PDO has had a closer relationship with the lower ventilation condition in eastern China. On the decadal time scale, the AMO stimulates a zonal teleconnection wave train (the AMO northern Hemisphere pattern, ANH) that originates from the North Atlantic Ocean and passes through central Europe, the northern Ural Mountains, Lake Balkhash-Baikal, and central eastern China. During the positive phase of AMO, the ANH induces a stronger and westward shifted SH, with the central eastern China controlled by the anomalous high pressure. In addition, affected by the cyclone (anticyclone) anomaly over Hetao region and North China (the Sea of Japan), southerly wind anomalies dominate over central eastern China. Compared with the AMO, the wave train generated by the negative (positive) PDO phase mainly propagates in the Pacific region, and there is a strong anticyclonic (cyclonic) anomaly over the Northeast Pacific, guiding the air flow southward (northward) along the East Asian coast and thus suppressing (encouraging) the dispersion of pollutants and resulting in above (below)-normal haze episodes.

Decadal Variability of the Upper-Ocean Salinity in the Southeast Indian Ocean: Role of Local Ocean–Atmosphere Dynamics

Ocean salinity plays a crucial role in the upper-ocean stratification and local marine ecosystem. This study reveals that ocean salinity presents notable decadal variability in upper 200 m over the southeast Indian Ocean (SEIO). Previous studies linked this salinity variability with precipitation anomalies over the Indo-Pacific region modulated by the tropical Pacific decadal variability. Here we conduct a quantitative salinity budget analysis and show that, in contrast, oceanic advection, especially the anomalous meridional advection, plays a dominant role in modulating the SEIO salinity on the decadal time scale. The anomalous meridional advection is mainly associated with a zonal dipole pattern of sea level anomaly (SLA) in the south Indian Ocean (SIO). Specifically, positive and negative SLAs in the east and west of the SIO correspond to anomalous southward oceanic current, which transports much fresher seawater from the warm pool into the SEIO and thereby decreases the local upper-ocean salinity, and vice versa. Further investigation reveals that the local anomalous wind stress curl associated with tropical Pacific forcing is responsible for generating the sea level dipole pattern via oceanic Rossby wave adjustment on decadal time scale. This study highlights that the local ocean–atmosphere dynamical adjustment is critical for the decadal salinity variability in the SEIO.

Different Temporal Stability and Responses to Droughts between Needleleaf Forests and Broadleaf Forests in North China during 2001–2018

Droughts can affect the physiological activity of trees, damage tissues, and even trigger mortality, yet the response of different forest types to drought at the decadal time scale remains uncertain. In this study, we used two remote sensing-based vegetation products, the MODIS enhanced vegetation index (EVI) and MODIS gross primary productivity (GPP), to explore the temporal stability of deciduous needleleaf forests (DNFs) and deciduous broadleaf forests (DBFs) in droughts and their legacy effects in North China from 2001 to 2018. The results of both products showed that the temporal stability of DBFs was consistently much higher than that of DNFs, even though the DBFs experienced extreme droughts and the DNFs did not. The DBFs also exhibited similar patterns in their legacy effects from droughts, with these effects extending up to 4 years after the droughts. These results indicate that DBFs have been better acclimated to drought events in North China. Furthermore, the results suggest that the GPP was more sensitive to water variability than EVI. These findings will be helpful for forest modeling, management, and conservation.

Decadal Variation of Atmospheric Rivers in Relation to North Atlantic Tripole SST Mode

The North Atlantic tripole (NAT) is the leading mode of sea-surface temperature (SST) in the decadal time scale. Although the NAT is forced by North Atlantic oscillation (NAO), it also has an effect on the atmosphere; for example, the early winter tripole SST signal can influence storm tracks in March. As the NAT not only changes the baroclinicity of the lower layer but also modifies the moisture being released into the atmosphere, we surmise that the NAT has an impact on moisture transport and atmospheric rivers in the decadal time scale. Using ERA5 reanalysis data, the decadal variations in Atmospheric Rivers (ARs) in the North Atlantic in boral winter in relation to NAT phases were studied. During the positive NAT phase, the positive SST in the central and western North Atlantic increases the humidity and causes an anticyclonic wind response, which enhances the northeastward transport of moisture. As a result, ARs tend to be longer and transport more moisture toward northwestern Europe. This causes enhanced extreme rain in the UK and Norway. During the negative NAT phase, the positive SST anomalies in the south and east of the North Atlantic provide more moisture, induce a southward shift of the ARs and enhance extreme rain in the Iberian Peninsula. The Gulf Stream (GS) front is stronger during the negative NAT phase, increasing the frequency of the atmospheric front and enlarging the rain rate in ARs.

Time scales of the Greenland Freshwater Anomaly in the Subpolar North Atlantic

The impact of increasing Greenland freshwater discharge on the subpolar North Atlantic (SPNA) remains unknown as there are uncertainties associated with the time scales of the Greenland freshwater anomaly (GFWA) in the SPNA. Results from numerical simulations tracking GFWA and an analytical approach are employed to estimate the response time suggesting a decadal time scale (13 years) required for the SPNA to adjust for increasing GFWA. Analytical solutions obtained for a long-lasting increase of freshwater discharge show a non-steady state response of the SPNA with increasing content of the GFWA. In contrast, solutions for a short-lived pulse of freshwater demonstrate different responses of the SPNA with a rapid increase of freshwater in the domain followed by an exponential decay after the pulse has passed. Derived theoretical relation between time scales show that residence time scales are time-dependent for a non-steady state case and asymptote the response time scale with time. Residence time of the GFWA deduced from Lagrangian experiments is close to and smaller than the response time, in agreement with the theory. The Lagrangian analysis shows dependence of the residence time on the entrance route of the GFWA and on the depth. The fraction of the GFWA exported through Davis Strait has limited impact on the interior basins, whereas the fraction entering the SPNA from the southwest Greenland shelf spreads into the interior regions. In both cases, the residence time of the GFWA increases with depth demonstrating long persistence of the freshwater anomaly in the subsurface layers.

Enhanced interactions of Kuroshio Extension with tropical Pacific in a changing climate

Quasi-decadal climate of the Kuroshio Extension (KE) is pivotal to understanding the North Pacific coupled ocean–atmosphere dynamics and their predictability. Recent observational studies suggest that extratropical-tropical coupling between the KE and the central tropical Pacific El Niño Southern Oscillation (CP-ENSO) leads to the observed preferred decadal time-scale of Pacific climate variability. By combining reanalysis data with numerical simulations from a high-resolution climate model and a linear inverse model (LIM), we confirm that KE and CP-ENSO dynamics are linked through extratropical-tropical teleconnections. Specifically, the atmospheric response to the KE excites Meridional Modes that energize the CP-ENSO (extratropicstropics), and in turn, CP-ENSO teleconnections energize the extratropical atmospheric forcing of the KE (tropicsextratropics). However, both observations and the model show that the KE/CP-ENSO coupling is non-stationary and has intensified in recent decades after the mid-1980. Given the short length of the observational and climate model record, it is difficult to attribute this shift to anthropogenic forcing. However, using a large-ensemble of the LIM we show that the intensification in the KE/CP-ENSO coupling after the mid-1980 is significant and linked to changes in the KE atmospheric downstream response, which exhibit a stronger imprint on the subtropical winds that excite the Pacific Meridional modes and CP-ENSO.

Model-consistent ocean data assimilation for seasonal to decadal climate prediction

<p>In Earth's climate system, the slowly varying ocean represents an important source of memory for predictions on the seasonal to decadal time scale. The ocean picks up atmospheric variability on a broad range of scales and feeds back on the large-scale atmospheric circulation. While today’s comprehensive Earth system models (ESMs) used in climate prediction are able to simulate this atmosphere-ocean feedback in a broad sense, data assimilation - which brings the climate model close to the observed state – allows the use of ESMs for climate predictions. We propose that the quality of climate predictions can be improved by initializing the ESMs using a model-consistent assimilation of observations resulting in (1) an initialization of the ESM with a model state close to the observed one, while (2) minimizing a potential initialization shock resulting from a mismatch between the simulated climate state and observations.<br />Here we demonstrate our approach towards a model-consistent assimilation of two ESMs used in climate prediction at Universität Hamburg and Deutscher Wetterdienst: MPI-ESM and ICON-ESM. Central to our approach is a weakly coupled assimilation setup, consisting of an Ensemble Kalman filter assimilation scheme in the ocean component (MPI-ESM, ICON-ESM) and a nudging assimilation scheme in the atmospheric component (MPI-ESM). We show that our approach facilitates a large part of atmosphere-ocean interaction already within the assimilation, allowing for a quick adaption of the assimilation in case of unrealistic behaviour of key processes. For two key large-scale oceanic processes, Atlantic meridional overturning circulation and oceanic Rossby waves, we analyze how sensitive they are to the degree of atmosphere-ocean interaction allowed for during assimilation and what this implies for the respective climate predictions. </p>

Enhanced Interactions of Kuroshio Extension With Tropical Pacific in a Changing Climate

Quasi-decadal climate of the Kuroshio Extension (KE) is pivotal to understanding the North Pacific coupled ocean-atmosphere dynamics and their predictability. Recent observational studies suggest that extratropical-tropical coupling between the KE and the central tropical Pacific El Niño Southern Oscillation (CP-ENSO) leads to the observed preferred decadal time-scale of Pacific climate variability. By combining reanalysis data with numerical simulations from a high-resolution climate model and a linear inverse model (LIM), we confirm that KE and CP-ENSO dynamics are linked through extratropical-tropical teleconnections. Specifically, the atmospheric response to the KE excites Meridional Modes that energize the CP-ENSO (extratropics→tropics), and in turn, CP-ENSO teleconnections energize the extratropical atmospheric forcing of the KE (tropics→extratropics). However, both observations and the model show that the KE/CP-ENSO coupling is non-stationary and has intensified in recent decades after the mid-1980. Given the short length of the observational and climate model record, it is difficult to attribute this shift to anthropogenic forcing. However, using a large-ensemble of the LIM we show that the intensification in the KE/CP-ENSO coupling after the mid-1980 is significant and linked to changes in the KE atmospheric downstream response, which exhibit a stronger imprint on the subtropical winds that excite the Pacific Meridional modes and CP-ENSO.

Asynchronous multi-decadal time-scale series of biotic and abiotic responses to precipitation during the last 1300 years

East Asian summer monsoon (EASM)-driven rapid hydroclimatic variation is a crucial factor with major socioeconomic impacts. Nevertheless, decadal- to centennial-scale EASM variability over the last two millennia is still poorly understood. Pollen-based quantitative annual precipitation (PqPann) and annual precipitation reconstructed by artificial neural networks (ANNs) for the period 650–1940 CE were reconstructed from a paleo-reservoir in South Korea. ANNs reconstruction was performed to compensate for a hiatus section. On a decadal timescale, 10 high-precipitation periods were identified, and PqPann and ANNs reconstructions were comparable to local instrumental rainfall and historic drought records. Biotic lags to rapid climatic changes ranging from 25 to 100 years were recognized by asynchronous pollen and speleothem responses to precipitation. We suggest that PqPann-based decadal- to centennial-scale climatic change reconstruction should take biotic lags into account, although the lags can be ignored on the millennial scale. The position of the EASM rainband influenced rainfall magnitude.