Halogenated Greenhouse Gases Made Global Warming Primarily

Time-series observations of global lower stratospheric temperature (GLST), global land surface air temperature (LSAT), global mean surface temperature (GMST), sea ice extent (SIE) and snow cover extent (SCE), together with observations reported in Paper I, combined with theoretical calculations of GLSTs and GMSTs, have provided strong evidence that ozone depletion and global climate changes are dominantly caused by human-made halogen-containing ozone-depleting substances (ODSs) and greenhouse gases (GHGs) respectively. Both GLST and SCE have become constant since the mid-1990s and GMST/LSAT has reached a peak since the mid-2000s, while regional continued warmings at the Arctic coasts (particularly Russia and Alaska) in winter and spring and at some areas of Antarctica are observed and can be well explained by a sea-ice-loss warming amplification mechanism. The calculated GMSTs by the parameter-free warming theory of halogenated GHGs show an excellent agreement with the observed GMSTs after the natural El Niño southern oscillation (ENSO) and volcanic effects are removed. These results provide a convincing mechanism of global climate change and will make profound changes in our understanding of atmospheric processes. This study also emphasizes the critical importance of continued international efforts in phasing out all anthropogenic halogenated ODSs and GHGs.

Temperature, carbon dioxide and methane

1) Globally-representative monthly rates of change of atmospheric carbon dioxide and methane are compared with global rates of change of sea ice and with Arctic and Antarctic air temperatures. 2) Carbon dioxide is very strongly correlated with sea ice dynamics, with the carbon dioxide rate at Mauna Loa lagging sea ice extent rate by 7 months. 3) Methane is very strongly correlated with sea ice dynamics, with the global (and Mauna Loa) methane rate lagging sea ice extent rate by 5 months. 4) Sea ice melt rate peaks in very tight synchrony with temperature in each Hemisphere. 5) The very high synchrony of the two gases is most parsimoniously explained by a common causality acting in both Hemispheres. 6) Time lags between variables indicate primary drivers of the gas dynamics are due to solar action on the polar regions, not mid-latitudes as is conventionally believed. 7) Results are consistent with a proposed role of a high-latitude temperature-dependent abiotic variable such as sea ice in the annual cycles of carbon dioxide and methane. 8) If sea ice does not drive the net flux of these gases, it is a highly precise proxy for whatever does. 9) Potential mechanisms should be investigated urgently.

Seasonal Cumulative Effect of Ural Blocking Episodes on the Frequent Cold events in China during the Early Winter of 2020/21

Starting in mid-November, China was hit by several cold events during the early winter of 2020/21. The lowest temperature observed at Beijing station on 7 January reached −19.6°C. In this paper, we show that the outbreak of the record-breaking extreme cold event can be attributed to a huge merging Ural blocking (UB) ridge over the Eurasian region. The sea-ice cover in the Kara and East Siberia Seas (KESS) in autumn was at its lowest value since 1979, which could have served as a precursor signal. Further analysis shows that several successive UB episodes occurred from 1 September 2020 to 10 January 2021. The persistent UB that occurred in late September/early October 2020 may have made an important contribution to the October historical minimum of sea ice in the KESS region. Our results also show that, after each UB episode in winter, significant upward propagation of wave activity occurred around 60°E, which resulted in weakening the stratospheric vortex. Meanwhile, each UB episode also caused a significant reduction in sea-ice extent in KESS and a significant weakening of the westerly jet in mid-high-latitude Eurasia. Results suggest that the Arctic vortex, which is supposed to enhance seasonally, became weaker and more unstable than the climatic mean under the seasonal cumulative effects of UB episodes, KESS warming, and long-lasting negative-phase North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO-). Those seasonal cumulative effects, combined with the impact of La Niña winter, led to the frequent occurrence of extreme cold events.

Trends in the polar sea ice coverage under climate change scenario

The development in the satellite microwave technology during the past three decades has offered an opportunity to the scientific community to access the sea ice data over the polar regions, which was otherwise inaccessible for continuous monitoring by any other means. The present study focuses on the trends in the Sea Ice Extent (SIE) over different sectors of the Arctic and the Antarctic regions and the interannual variability in their extremes. In general, the data over the period (1979-2007) reveal marked interannual variability in the sea ice cover with an increasing and the decreasing trend over the Antarctic and the Arctic region respectively. Over the southern hemisphere, only the Bellingshausen and Amundsen Seas sector shows an exceptional decreasing trend. However, in the northern hemisphere, all the sectors show a decreasing trend, with the Kara and Barents Seas sector being the most prominent one. Although, the decreasing trend of the SIE over the Arctic could be attributed to the global warming, an intriguing question still remains as to why the other polar region shows a different behaviour.

Comparison of modern and fossil diatom assemblages and their implication on sea-ice conditions in coastal Antarctic region

Antarctic Coastal regions are thought to be characterized by high productivity usually dominated by diatoms. Considering their prime importance in global carbon biological pump, diatom distribution and abundance studies are sparse especially in coastal regions of Antarctica. Biogenic silica is considered to be severely affected by dissolution in the undersaturated ocean water, therefore, combined study of diatom assemblages from water column and those found in the sediments is important. Therefore, we conducted a combined study of sediment diatoms along with surface water diatoms collected from Coastal Antarctica. When the modern assemblages are compared to the fossil record, it is clear the most of the important diatoms from the summer assemblages are not preserved in the underlying sediments. The studies reveal that only F. kerguelensis is common abundant species in both water and sediment which suggests that coastal Antarctic region could be having more open ocean influence. In contrast, the presence of sea ice related diatom species from surface sediment indicate for expansion of sea ice or ice edge adjacent to the water column, however such species were not found in the overlying water samples which could be due to less sea-ice extent.

Inter-annual variations observed in spring and summer Antarctic sea ice extent in recent decade

The growth and decay of sea ice are complex processes and have important feedback onto the oceanic and atmospheric circulation. In the Antarctic, sea ice variability significantly affects the primary productivity in the Southern Ocean and thereby negatively influences the performance and survival of species in polar ecosystem. In present days, the awareness on the sea ice variability in the Antarctic is not as matured as it is for the Arctic region. The present paper focuses on the inter-annual trends (1999-2009) observed in the monthly fractional sea ice cover in the Antarctic at 1 × 1 degree level, for the November and February months, derived from QuikSCAT scatterometer data. OSCAT scatterometer data from India’s Oceansat-2 satellite were used to asses the sea ice extent (SIE) observed in the month of November 2009 and February 2010 and its deviation from climatic maximum (1979-2002) sea ice extent (CMSIE). Large differences were observed between SIE and CMSIE, however, trend results show that it is due to the high inter-annual variability in sea ice cover. Spatial distribution of trends show the existence of positive and negative trends in the parts of Western Pacific Ocean, Ross Sea, Amundsen and Bellingshausen Seas (ABS), Weddell Sea and Indian ocean sector of southern ocean. Sea ice trends are compared with long-term SST trends (1982-2009) observed in the austral summer month of February. Large-scale cooling trend observed around Ross Sea and warming trend in ABS sector are the distinct outcome of the study.

Perspectives on future sea ice and navigability in the Arctic

The retreat of sea ice has been found to be very significant in the Arctic under global warming. It is projected to continue and will have great impacts on navigation. Perspectives on the changes in sea ice and navigability are crucial to the circulation pattern and future of the Arctic. In this investigation, the decadal changes in sea ice parameters were evaluated by the multi-model from the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 6, and Arctic navigability was assessed under two shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) and two vessel classes with the Arctic transportation accessibility model. The sea ice extent shows a high possibility of decreasing along SSP5-8.5 under current emissions and climate change. The decadal rate of decreasing sea ice extent will increase in March but decrease in September until 2060, when the oldest ice will have completely disappeared and the sea ice will reach an irreversible tipping point. Sea ice thickness is expected to decrease and transit in certain parts, declining by −0.22 m per decade after September 2060. Both the sea ice concentration and volume will thoroughly decline at decreasing decadal rates, with a greater decrease in volume in March than in September. Open water ships will be able to cross the Northern Sea Route and Northwest Passage between August and October during the period from 2045 to 2055, with a maximum navigable percentage in September. The time for Polar Class 6 (PC6) ships will shift to October–December during the period from 2021 to 2030, with a maximum navigable percentage in October. In addition, the central passage will be open for PC6 ships between September and October during 2021–2030.

East Antarctic Ice Sheet and Southern Ocean Response to Orbital Forcing from Late Miocene to Early Pliocene, Wilkes Land, East Antarctica

<p>Geological and ice sheet models indicate that marine-based sectors of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet (EAIS) were unstable during periods of moderate climatic warmth in the past. While geological records from the Middle to Late Pliocene indicate a dynamic ice sheet, records of ice sheet variability from the comparatively warmer Late Miocene to Early Pliocene are sparse, and there are few direct records of Antarctic ice sheet variability during this time period. Sediment recovered in Integrated Ocean Drilling Program U1361 drill core from the Wilkes Land margin provides a distal but continuous glacially-influenced record of the behaviour of Antarctic Ice Sheets. This thesis presents marine sedimentological and x-ray fluorescence geochemical datasets in order to assess changes in the dynamic response of the EAIS and Southern Ocean productivity in the Wilkes Land sector during Late Miocene and Early Pliocene to climatic warming and orbital forcing between 6.2 and 4.4 Ma. Two primary lithofacies are identified which can be directly related to glacial–interglacial cycles; enhanced sedimentation during glacials is represented by low-density turbidity flows that occurred in unison with low marine productivity and reduced iceberg rafted debris. Interglacial sediments contain diatomaceous muds with short-lived, large fluxes of iceberg rafted debris preceding a more prolonged phase of enhanced marine productivity. Interglacial sediments coincide with a more mafic source of terrigenous sediment, interfered to be associated with an inland retreat of the ice margin resulting in erosion of lithologies that are currently located beneath the grounded EAIS. Poleward invigoration of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current during glacial–interglacial transitions is proposed to have intensified upwelling, enhancing nutrient availability for marine productivity, and increasing oceanic heat flux at the ice margin acting to erode marine ice sheet grounding lines and triggering retreat. Spectral analysis of the datasets indicated orbital frequencies are present in the iceberg rafted debris mass accumulation rates at all three Milankovitch frequencies, with a dominant 100 kyr eccentricity driven ice discharge. Prolonged intervals of marine productivity correlate to 100 kyr cyclicity occurring at peaks in obliquity. The response of both ice sheet and biological systems to 100 kyr cyclicity may indicate eccentricity-modulated sea ice extent controls the influx of warm water onto the continental shelf.</p>

East Antarctic Ice Sheet and Southern Ocean Response to Orbital Forcing from Late Miocene to Early Pliocene, Wilkes Land, East Antarctica

<p>Geological and ice sheet models indicate that marine-based sectors of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet (EAIS) were unstable during periods of moderate climatic warmth in the past. While geological records from the Middle to Late Pliocene indicate a dynamic ice sheet, records of ice sheet variability from the comparatively warmer Late Miocene to Early Pliocene are sparse, and there are few direct records of Antarctic ice sheet variability during this time period. Sediment recovered in Integrated Ocean Drilling Program U1361 drill core from the Wilkes Land margin provides a distal but continuous glacially-influenced record of the behaviour of Antarctic Ice Sheets. This thesis presents marine sedimentological and x-ray fluorescence geochemical datasets in order to assess changes in the dynamic response of the EAIS and Southern Ocean productivity in the Wilkes Land sector during Late Miocene and Early Pliocene to climatic warming and orbital forcing between 6.2 and 4.4 Ma. Two primary lithofacies are identified which can be directly related to glacial–interglacial cycles; enhanced sedimentation during glacials is represented by low-density turbidity flows that occurred in unison with low marine productivity and reduced iceberg rafted debris. Interglacial sediments contain diatomaceous muds with short-lived, large fluxes of iceberg rafted debris preceding a more prolonged phase of enhanced marine productivity. Interglacial sediments coincide with a more mafic source of terrigenous sediment, interfered to be associated with an inland retreat of the ice margin resulting in erosion of lithologies that are currently located beneath the grounded EAIS. Poleward invigoration of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current during glacial–interglacial transitions is proposed to have intensified upwelling, enhancing nutrient availability for marine productivity, and increasing oceanic heat flux at the ice margin acting to erode marine ice sheet grounding lines and triggering retreat. Spectral analysis of the datasets indicated orbital frequencies are present in the iceberg rafted debris mass accumulation rates at all three Milankovitch frequencies, with a dominant 100 kyr eccentricity driven ice discharge. Prolonged intervals of marine productivity correlate to 100 kyr cyclicity occurring at peaks in obliquity. The response of both ice sheet and biological systems to 100 kyr cyclicity may indicate eccentricity-modulated sea ice extent controls the influx of warm water onto the continental shelf.</p>