Effects of socio-economic factors on old-age mortality in Russia

Исследование смертности занимает важное место в демографии в целом и в особенности в демографии старения. России свойственна неоднородность демографического развития, в частности региональная дифференциация показателей смертности населения. Работа посвящена анализу зависимости смертности в регионах России в старших возрастных группах от социально-экономических показателей. Исследование проводили с использованием методов регрессионного анализа, где в качестве единиц наблюдения выступали субъекты РФ, в качестве объясняемой переменной - смертность мужского (женского) населения старшего (60+) возраста, представленная в виде стандартизованных по структуре населения коэффициентов. В результате работы выявлены значимые социально-экономические факторы, позволяющие объяснить различия уровней смертности в субъектах РФ. Studies of old-age mortality are an important part of demography, especially the demography of ageing. Demographic development of Russia is characterized by heterogeneity including regional differences in mortality. The aim of the paper is to analyze the dependence of mortality at old-age groups on socio-economic indicators. The study is conducted using methods of regression analysis; the units of observation are the regions of the Russian Federation, the explained variable is the mortality rate of male (female) population at older (60+) ages standardized by the population-age structure. As a result, the significant socio-economic factors, explaining the differences of mortality rates in the regions of the Russian Federation, were identified.

Features of Population Reproduction and Assessment of Demographic Security of the Republic of Khakassia in the Context of Siberian and All-Russian Trends in the Post-Soviet Period

The article compares the changes in the demographic situation in the Republic of Khakassia with the regional demographic development of the neighboring republics of Altai and Tyva, as well as Krasnoyarsk Krai against the background of Siberian and all-Russian trends for the period 1990–2020. A comparative analysis of the main indicators of population reproduction of these territories was carried out using the method of multi-regional demographic analysis of dynamic series based on Rosstat data. The conclusion is made about the decrease in the level of demographic security in recent years in the Republic of Khakassia, as well as the country as a whole, due first to a decrease in fertility, and then an increase in mortality against the background of the population ageing.

Intraoperative transfusion practices and perioperative outcome in the European elderly: A secondary analysis of the observational ETPOS study

The demographic development suggests a dramatic growth in the number of elderly patients undergoing surgery in Europe. Most red blood cell transfusions (RBCT) are administered to older people, but little is known about perioperative transfusion practices in this population. In this secondary analysis of the prospective observational multicentre European Transfusion Practice and Outcome Study (ETPOS), we specifically evaluated intraoperative transfusion practices and the related outcomes of 3149 patients aged 65 years and older. Enrolled patients underwent elective surgery in 123 European hospitals, received at least one RBCT intraoperatively and were followed up for 30 days maximum. The mean haemoglobin value at the beginning of surgery was 108 (21) g/l, 84 (15) g/l before transfusion and 101 (16) g/l at the end of surgery. A median of 2 [1–2] units of RBCT were administered. Mostly, more than one transfusion trigger was present, with physiological triggers being preeminent. We revealed a descriptive association between each intraoperatively administered RBCT and mortality and discharge respectively, within the first 10 postoperative days but not thereafter. In our unadjusted model the hazard ratio (HR) for mortality was 1.11 (95% CI: 1.08–1.15) and the HR for discharge was 0.78 (95% CI: 0.74–0.83). After adjustment for several variables, such as age, preoperative haemoglobin and blood loss, the HR for mortality was 1.10 (95% CI: 1.05–1.15) and HR for discharge was 0.82 (95% CI: 0.78–0.87). Pre-operative anaemia in European elderly surgical patients is undertreated. Various triggers seem to support the decision for RBCT. A closer monitoring of elderly patients receiving intraoperative RBCT for the first 10 postoperative days might be justifiable. Further research on the causal relationship between RBCT and outcomes and on optimal transfusion strategies in the elderly population is warranted. A thorough analysis of different time periods within the first 30 postoperative days is recommended.

RAINWATER MANAGEMENT PROBLEMS IN CITIES IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES: THE CASE OF THE MUNICIPALITY OF ZIGUINCHOR, SENEGAL

Senegalese cities are experiencing very rapid growth in terms of both spatial and demographic development, which has an impact on the management of runoff water, which is increasingly a major concern of authorities and urban populations. In these cities, public sanitation infrastructure is insufficient and unevenly distributed in urban space. The objective of this study is to characterize the problem of rainwater management in the city of Ziguinchor (southern Senegal). The methodology is based on an administration, a questionnaire submitted to 288 heads of households, and an interview guide with 13 actors who stand out in the environmental management component at the local level. The results obtained attest to a real problem of sanitation of rainwater managed in precarious conditions due to the lack of infrastructure and water management methods used by households. The infrastructural problem is a factor in the poor management of rainwater in Ziguinchor, while rainwater drainage practices do not protect the living environment of the populations. In the city of Ziguinchor, the main strategies adopted in the face of the sanitation network deficit are based on backfilling, the laying of sandbags and stones, evacuation through buckets.

Modeling and forecasting the influence of social infrastructure development of interregional migration in Russia

At present demographic development of Russia and its regions is one of the most important factors of the country’s economic growth and also is key priority of the state government system. In spite of that, the issues of interregional migration are poorly represented in the strategic planning documents both at the federal and regional level. The major migration-induced population growth can be observed in the federal cities, capital areas and central part of Russia. At the same time in 2019 there was migration loss in 47 subjects of the Russian Federation. In many regions it is combined with the natural population loss aggravating the situation. The emerging closed loop (decreasing attractiveness of the area – migration loss – deteriorating social and economic situation – decreasing attractiveness of the area) results in increasing contradictions. Variety of factors determining the direction and the dynamics of migration flows requires a comprehensive study of these processes. The analysis conducted revealed that the level of development of the territory’s infrastructure is of great significance in this matter. Therefore, this direction is considered to be the main one. For quantification the authors established a complex of individual indicators which were preprocessed and consistently merged into directional integral and later into a single integral indicator of the level of social infrastructure development. Moreover, it is advisable to define five groups of regions according to the degree of their potential’s realization and to consider the affiliation of the subject of the federation to a particular group as an additional factor. Thus, the authors obtained the regression equation which describes the interrelation between the parameters under study. ANOVA revealed the opportunity of its practical application. Based on this model, a scenario forecast for the development of social infrastructure in Russia and its regions has been formed.

Spatial and Temporal Shifts in the Demographic Development of China at the End of the 20th and the Beginning of the 21st Centuries

The article provides an economic and geographical analysis of the demographic processes in China, considering a set of natural and geographic factors, selected to reflect the influence of the state policy of family planning, as well as the policy for the development of separate regions in the period under study. The methodology included the use of geoinformation technologies, classification method and geographical systematization. Based on the identified spatial differences at the level of provinces, radical and previously absent spatial shifts in the demographic processes in China were established for the first time. They consist in the formation of positive and negative dynamics zones, as well as natural increase and natural decline zones. The demographic balance, for the first time calculated for the provinces of China, for 2010 and 2019, made it possible to indicate the dominance of provinces of a progressive type (53.0%) and a zone of provinces of a regressive type (8.8%). The established trend proves not only a differentiation, but also a spatial polarization at the national level and acts as a phenomenon of modern demographic development in China, in the 21st century. The results of the geographical systematization of the demographic space has practical significance as it provides the opportunity to use this methodology at the microgeographic level in other territories and serves as a scientific justification for the development of the directions of China’s regional demographic policy.

Socio-demographic development and burden of mental, substance use disorders, and self-harm: An ecological analysis using the Global Burden of Disease study 2019

Objectives: Whether a country’s level of development is associated with an increased or decreased burden of mental and behavioural problems is an important yet unresolved question. Here, we examined the association between the burden of mental and substance use disorders and self-harm with socio-demographic development along temporal and geographical dimensions. Methods: We collected data from the Global Burden of Disease study 2019, which uses robust statistical modelling techniques to calculate disease burden estimates where data are sparse or unavailable. We extracted age-standardized Disability Adjusted Life Year rates as a measure of disease burden for 204 countries and territories, as well as the Socio-Demographic Index, a measure of development reflecting income per capita, fertility rate and level of education. We tested the association between Socio-Demographic Index and Disability Adjusted Life Years for mental and substance use disorders and self-harm, between 1990 and 2019, and across six geographical regions as defined by the World Health Organization. Results: The association between Socio-Demographic Index and Disability Adjusted Life Years was heterogeneous across world regions for all mental and behavioural conditions. For substance use disorders and self-harm, these regional variations were further moderated by time period. Our findings were robust to down-weighing outlier observations, as well as controlling for other socio-demographic variables, and the number of data sources available in each country. Conclusion: Based on data from the Global Burden of Disease study 2019, we demonstrated that the association between mental and substance use disorders and self-harm with socio-demographic development is dependent on geographical regions and temporal periods. This heterogeneity is likely related to geographical and temporal variations in socio-cultural norms, attitudes towards mental problems, as well as health care and social policies. Better knowledge of this spatial and temporal heterogeneity is crucial to ensure that countries do not develop at the expense of a higher burden of mental and behavioural conditions.

PRECONDITIONS AND COURSE OF THE MOLDAVIAN CAMPAIGN OF SULEIMAN KANUNI IN 1538 AND ITS CONSEQUENCES FOR THE BORDER POSITION OF BUKOVYNA

The territory in Upper Suceava, Siret, Upper Popruttia and Middle Podnistrovya (Bukovyna) played an important part in international relations due to transcontinental trade routes connecting the north of Western Europe and the Black Sea. Moreover, it was a confluence of political and economic interests of current major countries of Central and Eastern Europe, mostly Poland and later Ottoman Empire which had been competing for the hegemony in the region and craved to be decisive in its history. During 1530, the Ottoman Empire and Poland wanted to extend their power to Moldavia and to Bukovina. The reason for this was that the region was at the forefront of the struggle between both countries. Frontier conflicts between Poland and Moldavia lasted until 1538 when Turkish sultan and Polish king arranged Tartar Horde to capture Moldavian lands and Polish troops which surrounded Khotyn fortress forced Petru Rares make a vassal oath to Zygmunt I. Still it did not help preserve Moldavian sovereignty as Turkish sultan occupied Suceava due to Moldavian boyars betrayal, while Petru Rares was compelled to escape to Transylvania. Thus, Moldavia and the territory of Bukovyna went over to Ottoman Empire, which had negative consequences on the situation of the local people, restricting its agricultural and demographic development. The borders of Bukovyna became, therefore, the borders of Ottoman Empire. Besides, eastern part of Bukovyna (with the centre in Khotyn) was subordinate to Turkish administration which created an important defense point that often became the location for battles in coming years. Thus, after the Moldavian state became dependent on the Ottoman state in 1538, the situation in Bukovynian lands deteriorated significantly. The consequence of this was that from the end of the XVI – the beginning of the XVII century Bukovyna was the object of military-political competition, and power over the region passed from hand to hand.

Socio-geographic analysis of the demographic situation in Vinnytsia Oblast: current condition and peculiarities of development

The article contains analysis of the current demographic situation in Vinnytsia Oblast. We determined causes and factors influencing the development of the demographic situation in Vinnytsia Oblast. The paper reveals the specifics of development of the demographic processes in Vinnytsia Oblast according to the data of the Main Statistic Service in Vinnytsia Oblast for the period from 1959 to January 1, 2020. We determined how the totals of the urban and rural populations have changed. Based on the analysis of statistical and literature sources, we researched the specifics of natural movement of population, its sex and age structure, migration, distribution of the employed population and unemployment rate. We provide characteristics of specifics of the territorial differentiation of parameters of birth, death rates, natural increment (decline), migration, sex and age structure in Vinnytsia Oblast. We analyzed the specifics of employment of population in Vinnytsia Oblast, levels of economic activity and unemployment. We etermined modern tendencies of natural movement of the population, its impact on the prospects of further changes. We found out the problems of current demographic development in Vinnytsia Oblast based on determining modern specifics of the demographic parameters of the population in the researched area. The paper suggests ways to improve the demographic situation in Vinnytsia Oblast in the immediate future. As a result of the research, the demographic situation in Vinnytsia oblast was found to be negative. We observed a number of negative tendencies and patterns, including decrease in the rural population; decrease in the birth rate in the period from 1995 to 2020; high death rates due to diseases of blood circulation and malignant tumors; high parameters of aging of the population, especially in rural areas; decrease in the number of the employable population in the Oblast, etc.