Quantifying the Spatiotemporal Variation of Evapotranspiration of Different Land Cover Types and the Contribution of Its Associated Factors in the Xiliao River Plain

Evapotranspiration (ET) is a vital constituent of the hydrologic cycle. Researching changes in ET is necessary for understanding variability in the hydrologic cycle. Although some studies have clarified the changes and influencing factors of ET on a regional or global scale, these variables are still unclear for different land cover types due to the range of possible water evaporation mechanisms and conditions. In this study, we first investigated spatiotemporal trends of ET in different land cover types in the Xiliao River Plain from 2000 to 2019. The correlation between meteorological, NDVI, groundwater depth, and topographic factors and ET was compared through spatial superposition analysis. We then applied the ridge regression model to calculate the contribution rate of each influencing factor to ET for different land cover types. The results revealed that ET in the Xiliao River Plain has shown a continuously increasing trend, most significantly in cropland (CRO). The correlation between ET and influencing factors differed considerably for different land cover types, even showing an opposite result between regions with and without vegetation. Only precipitation (PRCP) and NDVI had a positive impact on ET in all land cover types. In addition, we found that vegetation can deepen the limited depth of land absorbing groundwater, and the influence of topographic conditions may be mainly reflected in the water condition difference caused by surface runoff. The ridge regression model eliminates multicollinearity among influencing factors; R2 in all land cover types was over 0.6, indicating that it could be used to effectively quantify the contribution of various influencing factors to ET. According to the results of our model calculations, NDVI had the greatest impact on ET in grass (GRA), cropland (CRO), paddy (PAD), forest (FOR), and swamp (SWA), while PRCP was the main influencing factor in bare land (BAR) and sand (SAN). These findings imply that we should apply targeted measures for water resources management in different land cover types. This study emphasizes the importance of comprehensively considering differences among various hydrologic cycles according to land cover type in order to assess the contributions of influencing factors to ET.

Multi-objective regression modeling for natural gas prediction with ridge regression and CMARS

Residential customers are the main users generally need a great quantity of natural gas in distribution systems, especially, in the wintry weather season since it is particularly consumed for cooking and space heating. Hence, it ought to be non-interruptible. Since distribution systems have a restricted ability for supply, reasonable planning and prediction through the whole year, especially in winter seasons, have emerged as vital. The Ridge Regression (RR) is formulated mainly to decrease collinearity results through shrinking the regression coefficients and reducing the impact in the model of variables. Conic multivariate adaptive regression splines ((C)MARS) model is constructed as an effective choice for MARS by using inverse problems, statistical learning, and multi-objective optimization theories. In this approach, the model complexity is penalized in the structure of RR and it is constructed a relaxation by utilizing continuous optimization, called Conic Quadratic Programming (CQP). In this study, CMARS and RR are applied to obtain forecasts of residential natural gas demand for local distribution companies (LDCs) that require short-term forecasts, and the model performances are compared by using some criteria. Here, our analysis shows that CMARS models outperform RR models. For one-day-ahead forecasts, CMARS yields a MAPE of about 4.8%, while the same value under RR reaches 8.5%. As the forecast horizon increases, it can be seen that the performance of the methods becomes worse, and for a forecast one week ahead, the MAPE values for CMARS and RR are 9.9% and 18.3%, respectively.

Regularized ridge regression models to estimate static elastic moduli from wireline measurements: case study from Southern Iraq

Elastic moduli such as Young’s modulus (E), Poisson’s ratio (v), and bulk modulus (K) are vital to creating geomechanical models for wellbore stability, hydraulic fracturing, sand production, etc. Due to the difficulty of obtaining core samples and performing rock testing, alternatively, wireline measurements can be used to estimate dynamic moduli. However, dynamic moduli are significantly different from elastic moduli due to many factors. In this paper, correlations for three zones (Nahr Umr shale, Zubair shale, and Zubair sandstone) located in southern Iraq were created to estimate static E, K, and ν from dynamic data. Core plugs from the aforementioned three zones alongside wireline measurements for the same sections were acquired. Single-stage triaxial (SST) tests with CT scans were executed for the core plugs. The data were separated into two parts; training (70%), and testing (30%) to ensure the models can be generalized to new data. Regularized ridge regression models were created to estimate static E, K, and ν from dynamic data (wireline measurements). The shrinkage parameter (α) was selected for each model based on an iterative process, where the goal is to ensure having the smallest error. The results showed that all models had testing R2 ranging between 0.92 and 0.997 and consistent with the training results. All models of E, K, and ν were linear besides ν for the Zubair sandstone and shale which were second-degree polynomial. Furthermore, root means squared error (RMSE) and mean absolute error (MAE) were utilized to assess the error of the models. Both RMSE and MAE were consistently low in training and testing without a large discrepancy. Thus, with the regularization of ridge regression and consistent low error during the training and testing, it can be concluded that the proposed models can be generalized to new data and no overfitting can be observed. The proposed models for Nahr Umr shale, Zubair shale, and Zubair sandstone can be utilized to estimate E, K, and ν based on readily available dynamic data which can contribute to creating robust geomechanical models for hydraulic fracturing, sand production, wellbore stability, etc.

Improving Prediction of Peroxide Value of Edible Oils Using Regularized Regression Models

We present four unique prediction techniques, combined with multiple data pre-processing methods, utilizing a wide range of both oil types and oil peroxide values (PV) as well as incorporating natural aging for peroxide creation. Samples were PV assayed using a standard starch titration method, AOCS Method Cd 8-53, and used as a verified reference method for PV determination. Near-infrared (NIR) spectra were collected from each sample in two unique optical pathlengths (OPLs), 2 and 24 mm, then fused into a third distinct set. All three sets were used in partial least squares (PLS) regression, ridge regression, LASSO regression, and elastic net regression model calculation. While no individual regression model was established as the best, global models for each regression type and pre-processing method show good agreement between all regression types when performed in their optimal scenarios. Furthermore, small spectral window size boxcar averaging shows prediction accuracy improvements for edible oil PVs. Best-performing models for each regression type are: PLS regression, 25 point boxcar window fused OPL spectral information RMSEP = 2.50; ridge regression, 5 point boxcar window, 24 mm OPL, RMSEP = 2.20; LASSO raw spectral information, 24 mm OPL, RMSEP = 1.80; and elastic net, 10 point boxcar window, 24 mm OPL, RMSEP = 1.91. The results show promising advancements in the development of a full global model for PV determination of edible oils.

Reconstruction of daily gridded snow water equivalent product for the Pan-Arctic region based on a ridge regression machine learning approach

Snow water equivalent is an important parameter of the surface hydrological and climate systems, and it has a profound impact on Arctic amplification and climate change. However, there are great differences among existing snow water equivalent products. In the Pan-Arctic region, the existing snow water equivalent products are limited time span and limited spatial coverage, and the spatial resolution is coarse, which greatly limits the application of snow water equivalent data in cryosphere change and climate change studies. In this study, utilizing the ridge regression model (RRM) of a machine learning algorithm, we integrated various existing snow water equivalent (SWE) products to generate a spatiotemporally seamless and high-precision RRM SWE product. The results show that it is feasible to utilize a ridge regression model based on a machine learning algorithm to prepare snow water equivalent products on a global scale. We evaluated the accuracy of the RRM SWE product using Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN) data and Russian snow survey data. The MAE, RMSE, R, and R2; between the RRM SWE products and observed snow water equivalents are 0.24, 30.29 mm, 0.87, and 0.76, respectively. The accuracy of the RRM SWE dataset is improved by 24 %, 25 %, 32 %, 7 %, and 10 % compared with the original AMSR-E/AMSR2 snow water equivalent dataset, ERA-Interim SWE dataset, Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) SWE dataset, GlobSnow SWE dataset, and ERA5-land SWE dataset, respectively, and it has a higher spatial resolution. The RRM SWE product production method does not rely too much on an independent snow water equivalent product, it makes full use of the advantages of each snow water equivalent dataset, and it considers the altitude factor. The average MAE of RRM SWE product at different altitude intervals is 0.24 and the average RMSE is 23.55 mm, this method has good stability, it is extremely suitable for the production of snow datasets with large spatial scales, and it can be easily extended to the preparation of other snow datasets. The RRM SWE product is expected to provide more accurate snow water equivalent data for the hydrological model and climate model and provide data support for cryosphere change and climate change studies. The RRM SWE product is available from the ‘A Big Earth Data Platform for Three Poles’ (http://dx.doi.org/10.11888/Snow.tpdc.271556) (Li et al., 2021).

The selective regularization of a linear regression model

This paper discusses constructing a linear regression model with regularization of the system matrix of normal equations. In contrast to the conventional ridge regression, where positive parameters are added to all diagonal terms of a matrix, in the method proposed only those matrix diagonal entries that correspond to the data with a high correlation are increased. This leads to a decrease in the matrix conditioning and, therefore, to a decrease in the corresponding coefficients of the regression equation. The selection of the entries to be increased is based on the triangular decomposition of the correlation matrix of the original dataset. The effectiveness of the method is tested on a known dataset, and it is performed not only with a ridge regression, but also with the results of applying the widespread algorithms LARS and Lasso.