The impact of urban policy scenarios on local climate: a multi-model intercomparison

<p>Understanding the impact of urban environments on the local climate has been a crucial topic in recent years. Changes in the cities structure are expected due to the ongoing urbanization trends and climate-aware mitigation planning. These policy implementations are expected to affect the local urban surface and its interaction with the climate system. Here, we are interested in investigating these impacts coupled to a heatwave condition, due to its adverse impact on human health. </p> <p>In the presented work, we investigate the multi-model response to different urbanization and urban greening scenarios. We employ two NWP models at the 2.1 km convection-permitting resolution: ICON-LAM (ICOsahedral Nonhydrostatic Model in Limited Area Mode)  and WRF-ARW (Weather Research and Forecasting Model). Our one-month experiments comprise the 2019 ``record-breaking'' heatwave in Western Europe and they are all a downscaling of ICON-EU (6.5km resolution).</p> <p>The urban policy scenarios are built from the CORINE land use dataset and they include two urbanization and two urban greening settings, for each model. Urbanization is represented as a sprawl of the main urban areas within the domain towards the natural surrounding areas. To increase the urban green fraction within the main cities, we increase the number of green areas within each city.</p> <p>Our analysis shows the multi-model comparison of the effects of the mentioned urban policies on the urban heat island (UHI) under heatwave conditions. Further, we quantify the effects of urban greening as an efficient tool to mitigate expected climate impacts in terms of the Discomfort Index, and not just for the UHI.<br />Further, we evaluate the similarities and dissimilarities between the two models in terms of multiple correlation decomposition accordingly to Glowienka-Hense et al. 2020.</p>

Public Bus Transportation System Environmental Impact Projections Regarding Different Policy Scenarios—A LCA Study

Urban activities, such as transportation, are responsible for a large portion of energy-related CO2 emissions. As the need for sustainable urban development increases, decision-makers embrace Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) as a reliable tool capable of generating scientifically based information on environmental impacts. However, there is still a lack of an analysis standard regarding the particularities of urban systems. Therefore, this research aims to define current and future environmental profiles, considering a case study of the public transport system in Porto Alegre, considering specificities of the urban context and different public policy scenarios through LCA. These results show that, although the transportation system management relies on the municipalities, the higher significance of environmental impacts depend on a national policy for using biodiesel in the diesel sold, which could lead to an increase of, for example, up to 9.4% of CO2 emissions from 2017 (baseline) to 2030. Finally, it is perceivable that to conduct a LCA to support decision-making in public urban services, a detailed approach is needed considering that technological variables interact with the territorial context and policy changes.

Dinamika Kebijakan Perencanaan Pembangunan Nasional Indonesia

This paper describes how the evolution of national development planning policies in Indonesia is mainly related to the philosophical, political and economic framework factors that influence it, as well as how the challenges and policy scenarios that can be taken in responding to the issue of amendments to the 1945 Constitution to establish the State Policy Guidelines as national development guidelines. The analysis found that changes in the national development planning policy model were driven by a number of factors such as the mainstream and the state's political direction, the configuration of existing political power and the dominant economic mainstream at that time. These factors not only affect the national development planning policy model, but also become a challenge in the planning and implementation of national development in Indonesia.

Projecting health labor market dynamics for a health system in transition: planning for a resilient health workforce in Saudi Arabia

Background Health workforce planning is critical for health systems to safeguard the ability to afford, train, recruit, and retain the appropriate number and mix of health workers. This balance is especially important when macroeconomic structures are also reforming. The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia is moving toward greater diversification, privatization, and resiliency; health sectorreform is a key pillar of this transition. Methods We used the Ministry of Health Yearbook data on the number of workers and health expenditures from 2007 to 2018 and projected health labor market supply and demand of workers through 2030, evaluated the potential shortages and surpluses, and simulated different policy scenarios to identify relevant interventions. We further focused on projections for health workers who are Saudi nationals and health worker demand within the public sector (versus the private sector) to inform national objectives of reducing dependency on foreign workers and better deploying public sector resources. Results We projected the overall health labor market to demand 9.07 physicians and nurses per 1,000 population (356,514) in 2030; the public sector will account for approximately 67% of this overall demand. Compared to a projected supply of 10.16 physicians and nurses per 1,000 population (399,354), we estimated an overall modest surplus of about 42,840 physicians and nurses in 2030. However, only about 17% of these workers are estimated to be Saudi nationals, for whom there will be a demand shortage of 287,895 workers. Among policy scenarios considered, increasing work hours had the largest effect on reducing shortages of Saudi workers, followed by bridge programs for training more nurses. Government resources can also be redirected to supporting more Saudi nurses while still ensuring adequate numbers of physicians to meet service delivery goals in 2030. Conclusion Despite projected overall balance in the labor market for health workers in 2030, without policy interventions, severe gaps in the Saudi workforce will persist and limit progress toward health system resiliency in Saudi Arabia. Both supply- and demand-side policy interventions should be considered, prioritizing those that increase productivity among Saudi health workers, enhance training for nurses, and strategically redeploy financial resources toward employing these workers.

Dispersion of particulate matter (PM_2.5) from wood combustion for residential heating: optimization of mitigation actions based on large-eddy simulations

Many cities in the world experience significant air pollution from residential wood combustion. Such an advection–diffusion problem as applied to geographically distributed small-scale pollution sources presently does not have a satisfactory theoretical or modeling solution. For example, statistical models do not allow for pollution accumulation in local stagnation zones – a type of phenomena that is commonly observed over complex terrain. This study applies a Parallelized Atmospheric Large-eddy simulation Model (PALM) to investigate dynamical phenomena that control variability and pathways of the atmospheric pollution emitted by wood-burning household stoves. The model PALM runs at spatial resolution of 10 m in an urban-sized modeling domain of 29 km by 35 km with a real spatial distribution of the pollution source and with realistic surface boundary conditions that characterize a medium-sized urban area fragmented by water bodies and hills. Such complex geography is expected to favor local air quality hazards, which makes this study of general interest. The case study here is based on winter conditions in Bergen, Norway. We investigate the turbulent diffusion of a passive scalar associated with small-sized particles (PM2.5) emitted by household stoves. The study considers air pollution effects that could be observed under different policy scenarios of stove replacement; modern woodstoves emit significantly less PM2.5 than the older ones, but replacement of stoves is a costly and challenging process. We found significant accumulation of near-surface pollution in the local stagnation zones. The simulated concentrations were larger than the concentrations obtained only due to the local PM2.5 emission, thus indicating dominant transboundary contribution of pollutants for other districts. We demonstrate how the source of critical pollution can be attributed through model disaggregation of emission from specific districts. The study reveals a decisive role of local air circulations over complex terrain that makes high-resolution modeling indispensable for adequate management of the urban air quality. This modeling study has important policy-related implications. Uneven spatial distribution of the pollutants suggests prioritizing certain limited urban districts in policy scenarios. We show that focused efforts towards stove replacement in specific areas may have a dominant positive effect on the air quality in the whole municipality. The case study identifies urban districts where limited incentives would result in the strongest reduction of the population's exposure to PM2.5.