An interpretable machine learning model based on a quick pre-screening system enables accurate deterioration risk prediction for COVID-19

A high-performing interpretable model is proposed to predict the risk of deterioration in coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) patients. The model was developed using a cohort of 3028 patients diagnosed with COVID-19 and exhibiting common clinical symptoms that were internally verified (AUC 0.8517, 95% CI 0.8433, 0.8601). A total of 15 high risk factors for deterioration and their approximate warning ranges were identified. This included prothrombin time (PT), prothrombin activity, lactate dehydrogenase, international normalized ratio, heart rate, body-mass index (BMI), D-dimer, creatine kinase, hematocrit, urine specific gravity, magnesium, globulin, activated partial thromboplastin time, lymphocyte count (L%), and platelet count. Four of these indicators (PT, heart rate, BMI, HCT) and comorbidities were selected for a streamlined combination of indicators to produce faster results. The resulting model showed good predictive performance (AUC 0.7941 95% CI 0.7926, 0.8151). A website for quick pre-screening online was also developed as part of the study.

Low molecular weight heparin prophylaxis for placenta-mediated complications in women with F2G20210A mutation

Introduction. A prothrombin-mutant genotype is a known risk factor in gestational complications.Aim — efficacy assessment in pregravid heparin prevention of pre-eclampsia (PE) and foetal growth retardation (FGR) in females with F2G20210A genotype and suprathreshold prothrombin activity.Patients and methods. A single-centre randomised controlled study enrolled 80 pregnant women carrying prothrombin F2G20210A. The inclusion criterion was a pregravid plasma prothrombin activity > 171 %. The study cohort consisted of 50 women (mean age 31.2 ± 3.7 years) receiving low molecular-weight heparin (LMWH) in menstrual cycle at weight-based elevated prevention doses. A comparison group comprised 30 pregnant women (mean age 31.3 ± 2.9 years) not receiving LMWH prophylaxis.Results. A pregravid start of LMWH treatment at high prophylactic doses in F2G20210A genotype carriers with prothrombin activity > 171 % allowed an absolute risk reduction (ARR) of PE by 46.7 % [p = 0.0001; number needed to treat (NNT): 2.1; 95 % confidence interval (CI) 3.4–1.56], severe PE by 30.7 % [p = 0.0001; NTT: 3.3; 95 % CI (6.7–2.2)] and FGR by 30.7 % [p = 0.0001; NTT: 3.3; 95 % CI (6.7–2.2)].Conclusion. Use of LMWH is justified in prevention of placenta-mediated complications in F2G20210A genotype carriers with a suprathreshold-high prothrombin activity.

Antithrombin resistance rescues clotting defect of homozygous prothrombin-Tyr510N dysprothrombinemia

A patient with hematuria in our clinic was diagnosed with urolithiasis. Analysis of the patient’s plasma clotting-time indicated that both APTT (52.6 s) and PT (19.4 s) are prolonged and prothrombin activity is reduced to 12.4% of normal, though the patient exhibited no abnormal bleeding phenotype and a prothrombin antigen level of 87.9%. Genetic analysis revealed the patient is homozygous for prothrombin Y510N mutation. We expressed and characterized the prothrombin-Y510N variant in appropriate coagulation assays and found that the specificity constant for activation of the mutant zymogen by factor Xa is impaired ~5-fold. Thrombin generation assay using patient’s plasma and prothrombin-deficient plasma supplemented with either wild-type or prothrombin-Y510N revealed that both peak height and time to peak for the prothrombin mutant are decreased however the endogenous thrombin generation potential is increased. Further analysis indicated that the thrombin mutant exhibits resistance to antithrombin and is inhibited by the serpin with ~12-fold slower rate constant. Protein C activation by thrombin-Y510N was also decreased ~10-fold, however, thrombomodulin overcame the catalytic defect. The Na+-concentration-dependence of the amidolytic activities revealed that the dissociation constant for the interaction of Na+ with the mutant has been elevated ~20-fold. These results suggest that Y510 (Y184a in chymotrypsin numbering) belongs to network of residues involved in binding Na+. A normal protein C activation by thrombin-Y510N suggests that thrombomodulin modulates the conformation of the Na+-binding loop of thrombin. The clotting defect of thrombin-Y510N appears to be compensated by its markedly lower reactivity with antithrombin, explaining patient’s normal hemostatic phenotype.

Dynamic Blood Tests Reveal Predicted Week of Death And Tricky Week For Surveillance In Severely Ill COVID-19 Patients

Background: Blood laboratory tests are the most reliable methods for the diagnosis and assessment of vital organs’ functions and the body’s response to infection. Herein, we compared the results of dynamic blood tests between the survivor and non-survivor group of patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and aimed to determine the predicted and tricky week for death and surveillance.Methods: The survivor and non-survivor groups were compared using biochemical blood tests, routine blood tests, and coagulation blood tests over four weeks of investigation.Results: Blood urea nitrogen, creatinine, high-sensitivity C-reactive protein, total bile acid, neutrophil count, white blood cell count, D-dimer, fibrin and fibrinogen degradation product, and prothrombin time showed significantly higher levels in the non-survivor group than the survivor group. Only pre-albumin, eosinophil count, lymphocyte count, red blood cell count, platelet count, hemoglobin, and prothrombin activity tests were significantly higher in the survivor group than the non-survivor group. Generally, the third week of the non-survivor’s group could be regarded as the predicted week for death based on all tests except for creatinine, pre-albumin, total bile acid, monocyte count, white blood cell count, and prothrombin activity. The tricky week in the non-survivor group was the second week in all tests except for pre-albumin, basophil count, eosinophil count, lymphocyte count, platelet count, D-dimer, and fibrin and fibrinogen degradation product.Conclusions: Based on our study, specific attention should be given to some weeks with respect to their related tests as predicted or tricky for death or surveillance, respectively.

COVID-19 diagnosis by routine blood tests using machine learning

Physicians taking care of patients with COVID-19 have described different changes in routine blood parameters. However, these changes hinder them from performing COVID-19 diagnoses. We constructed a machine learning model for COVID-19 diagnosis that was based and cross-validated on the routine blood tests of 5333 patients with various bacterial and viral infections, and 160 COVID-19-positive patients. We selected the operational ROC point at a sensitivity of 81.9% and a specificity of 97.9%. The cross-validated AUC was 0.97. The five most useful routine blood parameters for COVID-19 diagnosis according to the feature importance scoring of the XGBoost algorithm were: MCHC, eosinophil count, albumin, INR, and prothrombin activity percentage. t-SNE visualization showed that the blood parameters of the patients with a severe COVID-19 course are more like the parameters of a bacterial than a viral infection. The reported diagnostic accuracy is at least comparable and probably complementary to RT-PCR and chest CT studies. Patients with fever, cough, myalgia, and other symptoms can now have initial routine blood tests assessed by our diagnostic tool. All patients with a positive COVID-19 prediction would then undergo standard RT-PCR studies to confirm the diagnosis. We believe that our results represent a significant contribution to improvements in COVID-19 diagnosis.

Liver Failure in Pregnancy: A Retrospective Study of 62 Cases

Background: Liver failure in pregnancy is a rare but potentially severe disease with a high rate of short-term morbidity and mortality, while there is still a lack of accurate diagnosis, effective treatments and prognostic indicators for liver failure in pregnancy. This study aims to retrospectively investigate the clinical characteristics of liver failure in pregnancy caused by AFLP and hepatitis B, and to explore the potential prognostic indicators. Methods: Sixty-two pregnant women with symptoms and signs of hepatic dysfunction, admitting to the Third Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-sen University between January 1, 2010 and December 31, 2019 were retrospectively recruited. The baseline clinical characteristics, in-hospital mortality and changes of important laboratory examination parameters during hospitalization were determined.Results: The in-hospital mortality rate of liver failure in pregnancy was 27.4% and most of the deaths were recorded in the first 7 days after admission. Patients suffered in-hospital death had a significant lower gestational age, a higher incidence rate of hepatorenal syndrome and were more likely to receive hysterectomy but less likely to receive intrauterine balloon tamponade. The baseline aspartate aminotransferase, total bilirubin, indirect bilirubin and platelet levels were significantly higher, while cholinesterase, prothrombin activity and creatinine levels were significantly lower in patients with in-hospital death than that in patients discharged alive. The change tendencies of total bilirubin level and prothrombin activity were greatly different between patients with in-hospital deaths and patients discharged alive. Some differences in baseline clinical characteristics between different underlying etiologies of pregnant patients with liver failure were also detected.Conclusions: The mortality rate of liver failure in pregnancy is high especially within 7 days after admission. The change tendencies of total bilirubin and prothrombin activity were greatly different between dead and survived patients with liver failure during hospitalization, which suggested that these parameters might be important prognostic factors of liver failure in pregnancy and their alterations should be carefully tracked.

Maternal and fetal outcomes of patients with liver cirrhosis: a case-control study

Background We aimed to describe the characteristics and outcomes in pregnant women with liver cirrhosis, and identify the predictors of adverse events of mother and fetus. Methods Retrospectively collected mothers with liver cirrhosis in our center from 6/2010 to 6/2019. Women without liver cirrhosis were selected as a control in a 1:2 ratio. The primary assessment was the frequency of maternal and fetal adverse events. The secondary assessment was the adverse events in patients continuing pregnancy or not and the factors to predict the severe adverse events. Results Of 126 pregnancies enrolled, 29 pregnancies were terminated for worrying disease progression and 97 pregnancies continued. One hundred ninety-four pregnancies without liver cirrhosis were selected as control. At baseline, patients with liver cirrhosis have a lower level of platelet, hemoglobin, prothrombin activity, and a higher level of ALT, total Bilirubin, creatinine. Compared to control, patients with liver cirrhosis had a higher frequency of adverse events, including bleeding gums (7.2%vs. 1.0%), TBA elevation (18.6%vs.3.1%), infection (10.3%vs.0.5%), cesarean section (73.6%vs.49.5%), postpartum hemorrhage (13.8% vs 2.1%), blood transfusion (28.9% vs 2.1%), new ascites or aggravating ascites (6.2% vs.0%), MODS (7.2% vs.0.5%) and intensive care unit admissions (24.1% vs 1.1%). The incidence of severe maternal adverse events was also higher (32.0% vs 1.5%). Women who chose to terminated the pregnancy had less severe adverse events (3.4% vs.32.0%). A higher frequency of fetal/infants’ complications was observed in liver cirrhosis population than control, including newborn asphyxia (10.2% vs1.1%), low birth weight infant (13.6% vs. 2.6%). In patients who progressed into the third trimester, multivariable regression analysis demonstrated that severe adverse events were associated with a higher CTP score (OR 2.128, 95% CI [1.002, 4.521], p = 0.049). Wilson’s disease related liver cirrhosis has a better prognosis (OR = 0.009, 95% CI [0, 0.763], p = 0.038). Conclusions The incidence of the adverse events was significantly increased in pregnancies complicated by cirrhosis. The predictor of severe adverse events is higher CTP score. Wilson’s disease induced liver cirrhosis have a better prognosis. Timely termination of pregnancy during the first trimester may avoid the incidence of severe adverse events.

Fatal immune-related hepatitis with intrahepatic cholestasis and pneumonia associated with camrelizumab: A case report and literature review

Camrelizumab (SHR-1210), a human monoclonal antibody against programmed death receptor 1 (PD-1), blocks the binding of PD-1 to PD-L1, consequently inhibiting immune system evasion by tumor cells. A 65-year-old man underwent radical esophagectomy 5 months ago following the diagnosis of esophageal cancer by gastroscopy. Approximately 40 days later, capecitabine was administered at a dosage of 1.5 g Po bid for 14 days, and anti-PD-1 (camrelizumab 200 mg) was administered twice. Around 20 days later, abnormal liver function was detected. He received a diagnosis of drug-induced liver injury. Chest computed tomography scanning revealed interstitial inflammatory lesions in both lower lungs. Liver biopsy revealed immune injury with ductopenia. Therefore, the diagnosis was revised as immune-related pneumonia and hepatitis associated with camrelizumab. The treatment regimen of methylprednisolone was adjusted to 40 mg/day and gradually increased to 80 mg/day. Mycophenolate mofetil was administered at a dose of 2 g/day. Consequently, chest tightness and shortness of breath resolved, and pulmonary inflammation improved. However, jaundice did not improve and continued to exacerbate. The last measured prothrombin time was 41 s, prothrombin activity was 19%, and the international normalized ratio was 4.03. The cause of death was diagnosed as liver failure, cardiopulmonary failure, and septic shock.

Thrombotic events in rare kinds of genetic thrombophilias

Цель исследования: изучить лабораторный фенотип редких мутаций Лейдена [FVL А(1961)A] и гена протромбина [FII А(20210)A] при их клинической реализации в виде тромбозов. Материалы и методы. Проведено многоцентровое проспективное наблюдательное исследование, включающее 80 носителей редких генетических форм тромбофилий: FVL А(1961)A (n = 31), FII А(20210)A (n = 10) и компаунд FII G(20210)A + FVL G(1691)A (n = 39). У всех пациентов исследована резистентность фактора Va к активированному протеину С (APC-R) по нормализованному отношению (НО) и уровень активности протромбина в плазме крови в состоянии физического здоровья и в случае эпизода тромботического события. Результаты. Определена ассоциативная связь развития тромботических событий со снижением НО при оценке APC-R как у гомозиготных носителей мутации Лейден (Ме = 0,35; 95% ДИ = 0,31–0,37 по НО), так и гетерозиготных компаундов (Ме = 0,43; 95% ДИ = 0,42–0,45 по НО). Заключение. Лабораторный мониторинг пациентов с редкими формами генетических тромбофилий позволяет выделить группу высокого тромбогенного риска, нуждающуюся в пролонгированной тромбопрофилактике. Objectives: to study the laboratory phenotype of rare Leiden mutation [FVL A(1961)A] and the prothrombin gene mutation [FII А(20210)A] implementating clinically as thrombosis. Patients / Methods. A multicenter prospective observational study included 80 carriers of rare genetic kinds of thrombophilia: FVL A(1961)A (n = 31), prothrombin FII А(20210)A (n = 10) and the compound FII G(20210)A + FVL G(1691)A (n = 39). All patients were tested for the factor Va resistance to activated protein C (APC-R), normalized ratio (NR), and the plasma prothrombin activity (%) in healthy conditions and in the case of thrombotic event. Results. An associative relation between the development of thrombotic events and a decrease in NR was determined when assessing APC-R, both in homozygous carriers of the Leiden mutation (Me = 0.35; 95% CI = 0.31–0.37 in NR) and heterozygous compounds (Me = 0.43; 95% СI = 0.42–0.45 in NR). Conclusions. Laboratory follow up for patients with rare kinds of genetic thrombophilias allows to identify a group at high thrombogenic risk requiring prolonged thromboprophylaxis.