The spatial and temporal variability of convective instability in the south of Western Siberia according to ERA5 reanalysis data

Представлены результаты сравнительного анализа пространственно-временной изменчивости конвективной неустойчивости на юге Западной Сибири по данным индексов неустойчивости K-Index и Total Totals, полученных из реанализа ERA5. Показано, что по значениям обоих индексов максимум конвективной неустойчивости над югом Западной Сибири приходится на Кулундинскую равнину и пойму верхнего течения р. Иртыш. Кроме того, высокие значения индексов наблюдаются над юго-востоком Урала и северо-востоком Васюганской равнины. Северная граница со значениями KIQ1 ≥ 30 ◦C и TTQ1 ≥ 50 ◦C, указывающими на вероятность образования гроз 70%, простирается до 62◦ и 61◦ с.ш. соответственно. За период 1990–2019 гг. в динамике среднегодовых значений KIQ1, в целом по территории, преобладает положительный тренд, а в динамике TTQ1 на большей части территории значимые изменения отсутствуют, однако отмечается цикличность с периодом ∼ 10 лет. A comparative analysis of the spatio-temporal variability of convective instability in the south of Western Siberia according to the K-Index and Total Totals index obtained from the ERA5 reanalysis is presented. Related to both indices, the Kulunda plain and the upper Irtysh River floodplain have the highest level of convective instability in the south of Western Siberia. In addition, high index values are observed over the southeastern Urals and the northeastern Vasyugan plain. The northern boundary extends to 62◦ and 61◦ N, respectively, with KIQ1 ≥ 30 ◦C and TTQ1 ≥ 50 ◦C, indicating a thunderstorm probability greater than 70%. The dynamics of annual average KIQ1 values for the territory as a whole are dominated by a positive trend for the period 1990–2019, and there are no significant changes in TTQ1 dynamics for most of the territory, but there is cyclicality with a period of ∼ 10 years.

Investigations of Sizes and Dynamical Motions of Solar Photospheric Granules by a Novel Granular Segmenting Algorithm

Granules observed in the solar photosphere are believed to be convective and turbulent, but the physical picture of the granular dynamical process remains unclear. Here we performed an investigation of granular dynamical motions of full length scales based on data obtained by the 1 m New Vacuum Solar Telescope and the 1.6 m Goode Solar Telescope. We developed a new granule segmenting method, which can detect both small faint and large bright granules. A large number of granules were detected, and two critical sizes, 265 and 1420 km, were found to separate the granules into three length ranges. The granules with sizes above 1420 km follow Gaussian distribution, and demonstrate flat in flatness function, which shows that they are non-intermittent and thus are dominated by convective motions. Small granules with sizes between 265 and 1420 km are fitted by a combination of power-law function and Gauss function, and exhibit nonlinearity in flatness function, which reveals that they are in the mixing motions of convection and turbulence. Mini granules with sizes below 265 km follow the power-law distribution and demonstrate linearity in flatness function, indicating that they are intermittent and strongly turbulent. These results suggest that a cascade process occurs: large granules break down due to convective instability, which transports energy into small ones; then turbulence is induced and grows, which competes with convection and further causes the small granules to continuously split. Eventually, the motions in even smaller scales enter in a turbulence-dominated regime.

Symbiotic Relationship between Meiyu Rainfall and the Morphology of Meiyu Front

Observational evidences from a heavy precipitation event of the 2020 extreme Meiyu season are presented here to reveal a symbiotic relationship between Meiyu rainfall and the morphology of Meiyu front. The two influence each other through dynamical and thermodynamic feedbacks and evolve in a coherent way to generate cyclic behaviors. Specifically, an intense and band-shaped Meiyu front leads to symmetrical instability in the lower atmospheric layer and convective instability in the middle atmospheric layer, forming a rain band along the front. The Meiyu front and its associated instability subsequently weakens as a result of rainfall and the front is bent by the process of tilting frontolysis. Deep convective instability in the middle and lower layers develops in the warm-humid prefrontal area, and triggers isolated heavy rainfall replacing the original rain band south of the bent front. This warm sector precipitation then strengthens the front through tilting and diabatic heating frontogenesis. A stronger front recovers its initial band shape and the associated rainfall also resumes the form of rain band along the front. Analyses of potential energy associated with instability, water vapor convergence, and cross-frontal circulation are carried out to illustrate key processes of this Meiyu front-rainfall cycle. The implications of this symbiotic relationship for simulating and predicting extreme rainfall associated with Meiyu fronts are presented.

The Asymmetric Precipitation Evolution in Weak Landfalling Tropical Cyclone Rumbia (2018) Over East China

The rainfall in landfalling TC is not always correlated with the storm intensity. Some weak landfalling TCs could bring extremely heavy rainfall during and after landfall. Such extreme events are very challenging to operational forecasts and often lead to disasters in the affected regions. Tropical storm Rumbia (2018) made its landfall in Shanghai with weak intensity but led to long-lasting and increasing rainfall to East China. The asymmetric rainfall evolution of Rumbia during and after its landfall was diagnosed based on the fifth generation European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) reanalysis (ERA5) data, the tropical cyclone (TC) best-track data, and rainfall observations from China Meteorological Administration (CMA). Results showed that Rumbia was embedded in an environment with a deep-layer (300–850 hPa) southwesterly vertical wind shear (VWS). The maximum rainfall mostly occurred downshear-left in its inner-core region and downshear-right in the outer-core region. The translation of Rumbia also contributed to the rainfall distribution to some extent, especially prior to and just after its landfall. The strong southwesterly-southeasterly summer monsoon flow transported water vapor from the tropical ocean and the East China Sea to the TC core region, providing moisture and convective instability conditions in the mid-lower troposphere for the sustained rainfall even after Rumbia moved well inland. The results also showed that the low-level convective instability and the deep-layer environmental VWS played an important role in deepening the inflow boundary layer and the redevelopment of the secondary circulation, thus contributing to the heavy rainfall in the northeast quadrant of Rumbia after its landfall. However, further in-depth studies are recommended in regard of the rainfall evolution in the weak TCs. This study further calls for a continuous understanding of the involved physical processes/mechanisms that are responsible for the extreme rainfall induced by landfalling TCs, which can help improve the rainfall forecast skills and support damage mitigation in the future.

Tropical Cyclone Formation within Strong Northeasterly Environments in the South China Sea

In the South China Sea (SCS), 17% of tropical cyclones (TCs) formed in the late season (November−January) were associated with a strong northeasterly monsoon. This study explores the effects of northeasterly strength on TC formation over the SCS. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is used to simulate the disturbances that develop into TCs (formation cases) and those that do not (non-formation cases). Two formation (29W on 18 November 2001 and Vamei on 26 December 2001) and two non-formation (30 December 2002 and 9 January 2003) cases are simulated. To address the importance of upstream low-level northeasterly strength to TC formation, two types of sensitivity experiments are performed: formation cases with increased northeasterly flow and non-formation cases with decreased northeasterly flow. If the strength of the northeasterly is increased for the formation case, the stronger cold advection reduces the convective instability around the disturbance center, leading to the weakening of the simulated disturbance. If the strength of the northeasterly is decreased for the non-formation case, the simulated disturbance can develop further into a TC. In summary, strength of the upstream low-level northeasterly flow does affect the environmental conditions around the disturbance center, resulting in the change of TC formation probability over the SCS in the late season.

Role of the Kuroshio Current on the Diurnal Variation of the Early-Summer Meiyu-Baiu Rainband

Mechanism of the strong diurnal cycle of precipitation over the Kuroshio Current (KC) during mid-June is investigated, when the climatological location of the Meiyu-Baiu front overlaps the KC. Heating from the KC intensifies in the morning when the temperature difference between the sea surface and the surface air (TDF) maximizes. The diurnal cycle of precipitation, on the other hand, peaks in the afternoon, consistent with previous studies. It is revealed that convective precipitation (CP) due to convective instability is in phase with TDF, whereas large-scale precipitation (LSP) caused by the cross-frontal circulation matures later. Intensified convective instability via enhanced heating from the KC in the morning hours (03–12 LST) increases the mean amount of CP as well as the probability of stronger CP. Surface wind convergence is also strengthened during the morning hours and helps sustain the convection. The diurnal cycle of LSP, which peaks in the afternoon hours (12–15 LST), covaries with the intensity of the Meiyu-Baiu front and the assocaited cross-frontal circulation. The wind convergence and deformation anomalies associated with the intensified thermal heating over the KC during the morning hours intensifies the frontogenesis function, which leads to the maximization of the frontal intensity in the afternoon. The direct contribution of diabatic heating to the frontogenesis is relatively weak.