Impact of distributed meteorological forcing on snow dynamic and induced water fluxes over a mid-elevation alpine micro-scale catchment

From the micro to mesoscale, water and energy budgets of mountainous catchments are largely driven by topographic features such as terrain orientation, slope, steepness, elevation together with associated meteorological forcings such as precipitation, solar radiation and wind. This impact the snow deposition, melting and transport, which further impact the overall water cycle. However, this microscale variability is not well represented in Earth System Models due to coarse resolutions, and impacts of such resolution assumptions on simulated water and energy budget lack quantification. This study aims at exploring these effects on a 15.28 ha small mid-elevation (2000–2200 m) alpine catchment at Col du Lautaret (France). This grass-dominated catchment remains covered with snow for 5 to 6 months per year. The surface-subsurface coupled hyper-resolution (10 m) distributed hydrological model ParFLOW-CLM is used to simulate the impacts of meteorological variability at spatio-temporal micro-scale on the water cycle. These include 3D simulations with spatially distributed forcing of precipitation, solar radiation and wind compared to 3D simulations with non-distributed forcing simulation. Our precipitation distribution method encapsulates the spatial snow distribution along with snow transport. The model simulates the snow cover dynamics and spatial variability through the CLM energy balance module and under the different combinations of distributed forcing. The resulting subsurface and surface water transfers are solved by the ParFLOW module. Distributed forcing induce a snowpack with a more spatially heterogeneous thickness, which becomes patchy during the melt season and shows a good agreement with the remote sensing images. This asynchronous melting results in a longer melting period and smoother hydrological response than the non-distributed forcing, which does not generate any patchiness. Amongst the tested distributed meteorological forcing that impacts the hydrology, precipitation distribution, including snow transportation, is the most important. Solar insolation distribution has an important impact in reducing evapotranspiration depending on the slope orientation. For the studied catchment mainly facing east, it adds small differential melting effect. Wind distribution in the energy budget calculation has a more complicated impact on our catchment as it participate to accelerate the melting when meteorological conditions are favourable but does not generate patchiness at the end in our test case.

Dominant Controls of Cold-Season Precipitation Variability Over the High Mountains of Asia

A robust understanding of the sub-seasonal cold season (November–March) precipitation variability over the High Mountains of Asia (HMA) is currently lacking. Here, we identify dynamic and thermodynamic pathways through which natural modes of climate variability establish their teleconnections over the HMA. First, we identify evaporative sources that contribute to the cold season precipitation over the HMA and surroundings areas. The predominant moisture contribution comes from the mid-latitude regions including Mediterranean/Caspian Seas and Mediterranean land. Second, we establish that several tropical and extratropical forcing display a sub-seasonally fluctuating influence on the cold season precipitation distribution over the region, and given that many of them varyingly interact with each other, their impacts cannot be explained exclusively or at seasonal timescales. Lastly, a single set of evaporative sources cannot always be identified as the only determinant in propagating a remote teleconnection, because nature of moisture anomalies and its sources depend on the pattern of sub-seasonally varying dynamical forcing in the atmosphere.

Dynamic Pluvial Flash Flooding Hazard Forecast Using Weather Radar Data

Pluvial flash floods are among the most dangerous weather-triggered disasters, usually affecting watersheds smaller than 100 km2, with a short time to peak discharge (from a few minutes to a few hours) after causative rainfall. Several warning systems in the world try to use this time lag to predict the location, extent, intensity, and time of flash flooding. They are based on numerical hydrological models processing data collected by on-ground monitoring networks, weather radars, and precipitation nowcasting. However, there may be areas covered by weather radar data, in which the network of ground-based precipitation stations is not sufficiently developed or does not even exist (e.g., in an area covered by portable weather radar). We developed a method usable for designing an early warning system based on a different philosophy for such a situation. This method uses weather radar data as a 2D signal carrying information on the current precipitation distribution over the monitored area, and data on the watershed and drainage network in the area. The method transforms (concentrates) the 2D signal on precipitation distribution into a 1D signal carrying information on potential runoff distribution along the drainage network. For sections of watercourses where a significant increase in potential runoff can be expected (i.e., a significant increase of the 1D signal strength is detected), a warning against imminent flash floods can be possibly issued. The whole curve of the potential runoff development is not essential for issuing the alarm, but only the significant leading edge of the 1D signal is important. The advantage of this procedure is that results are obtained quickly and independent of any on-ground monitoring system; the disadvantage is that it does not provide the exact time of the onset of a flash flooding or its extent and intensity. The generated alert only warns that there is a higher flash flooding hazard in a specific section of the watercourse in the coming hours. The forecast is presented as a dynamic map of the flash flooding hazard distribution along the segments of watercourses. Relaying this hazard to segments of watercourses permits a substantial reduction in false alarms issued to not-endangered municipalities, which lie in safe areas far away from the watercourses. The method was tested at the local level (pluvial flash floods in two small regions of the Czech Republic) and the national level for rainfall episodes covering large areas in the Czech Republic. The conclusion was that the method is applicable at both levels. The results were compared mainly with data related to the Fire and Rescue Service interventions during floods. Finally, the increase in the reliability of hazard prediction using the information on soil saturation is demonstrated. The method is applicable in any region covered by a weather radar (e.g., a portable one), even if there are undeveloped networks of rain and hydrometric gauge stations. Further improvement could be achieved by processing more extended time series and using computational intelligence methods for classifying the degree of flash flooding hazard on individual sections of the watercourse network.

Assessment of CMIP6 Performance and Projected Temperature and Precipitation Changes Over South America

We evaluate the performance of a large ensemble of Global Climate Models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) over South America for a recent past reference period and examine their projections of twenty-first century precipitation and temperature changes. The future changes are computed for two time slices (2040–2059 and 2080–2099) relative to the reference period (1995–2014) under four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs, SSP1–2.6, SSP2–4.5, SSP3–7.0 and SSP5–8.5). The CMIP6 GCMs successfully capture the main climate characteristics across South America. However, they exhibit varying skill in the spatiotemporal distribution of precipitation and temperature at the sub-regional scale, particularly over high latitudes and altitudes. Future precipitation exhibits a decrease over the east of the northern Andes in tropical South America and the southern Andes in Chile and Amazonia, and an increase over southeastern South America and the northern Andes—a result generally consistent with earlier CMIP (3 and 5) projections. However, most of these changes remain within the range of variability of the reference period. In contrast, temperature increases are robust in terms of magnitude even under the SSP1–2.6. Future changes mostly progress monotonically from the weakest to the strongest forcing scenario, and from the mid-century to late-century projection period. There is an increase in the seasonality of the intra-annual precipitation distribution, as the wetter part of the year contributes relatively more to the annual total. Furthermore, an increasingly heavy-tailed precipitation distribution and a rightward shifted temperature distribution provide strong indications of a more intense hydrological cycle as greenhouse gas emissions increase. The relative distance of an individual GCM from the ensemble mean does not substantially vary across different scenarios. We found no clear systematic linkage between model spread about the mean in the reference period and the magnitude of simulated sub-regional climate change in the future period. Overall, these results could be useful for regional climate change impact assessments across South America.

Comparison of spatial interpolation methods for estimating the precipitation distribution in Portugal

Precipitation has a strong and constant impact on different economic sectors, environment, and social activities all over the world. An increasing interest for monitoring and estimating the precipitation characteristics can be claimed in the last decades. However, in some areas the ground-based network is still sparse and the spatial data coverage insufficiently addresses the needs. In the last decades, different interpolation methods provide an efficient response for describing the spatial distribution of precipitation. In this study, we compare the performance of seven interpolation methods used for retrieving the mean annual precipitation over the mainland Portugal, as follows: local polynomial interpolation (LPI), global polynomial interpolation (GPI), radial basis function (RBF), inverse distance weighted (IDW), ordinary cokriging (OCK), universal cokriging (UCK) and empirical Bayesian kriging regression (EBKR). We generate the mean annual precipitation distribution using data from 128 rain gauge stations covering the period 1991 to 2000. The interpolation results were evaluated using cross-validation techniques and the performance of each method was evaluated using mean error (ME), mean absolute error (MAE), root mean square error (RMSE), Pearson’s correlation coefficient (R) and Taylor diagram. The results indicate that EBKR performs the best spatial distribution. In order to determine the accuracy of spatial distribution generated by the spatial interpolation methods, we calculate the prediction standard error (PSE). The PSE result of EBKR prediction over mainland Portugal increases form south to north.

Research on the Influence of Small-Scale Terrain on Precipitation

Terrain plays an important role in the formation, development and distribution of local precipitation and is a major factor leading to locally abnormal weather in weather systems. Although small-scale topography has little influence on the spatial distribution of precipitation, it interferes with precipitation fitting. Due to the arbitrary combination of small, medium and large-scale terrain, complex terrain distribution is formed, and small-scale terrain cannot be clearly defined and removed. Based on the idea of bidimensional empirical mode decomposition (BEMD), this paper extracts small-scale terrain data layer by layer to smooth the terrain and constructs a macroterrain model for different scales in Central China. Based on the precipitation distribution model using multiple regression, precipitation models (B0, B1, B2 and B3) of different scales are constructed. The 18-year monthly average precipitation data of each station are compared with the precipitation simulation results under different scales of terrain and TRMM precipitation data, and the influence of different levels of small-scale terrain on the precipitation distribution is analysed. The results show that (1) in Central China, the accuracy of model B2 is much higher than that of TRMM model A and monthly precipitation model B0. The comprehensive evaluation indexes are increased by 3.31% and 1.92%, respectively. (2) The influence of different levels of small-scale terrain on the precipitation distribution is different. The first- and second-order small-scale terrain has interference effects on precipitation fitting, and the third-order small-scale terrain has an enhancement effect on precipitation. However, the effect of small-scale topography on the precipitation distribution is generally reflected as interference.

Improvement of Spatial Interpolation of Precipitation Distribution Using Cokriging Incorporating Rain-Gauge and Satellite (SMOS) Soil Moisture Data

Precipitation data provide a crucial input for examining hydrological issues, including watershed management and mitigation of the effects of floods, drought, and landslides. However, they are collected frequently from the scarce and often insufficient network of ground-based rain-gauge stations to generate continuous precipitation maps. Recently, precipitation maps derived from satellite data have not been sufficiently linked to ground-based rain gauges and satellite-derived soil moisture to improve the assessment of precipitation distribution using spatial statistics. Kriging methods are used to enhance the estimation of the spatial distribution of precipitations. The aim of this study was to assess two geostatistical methods, ordinary kriging (OK) and ordinary cokriging (OCK), and one deterministic method (i.e., inverse distance weighting (IDW)) for improved spatial interpolation of quarterly and monthly precipitations in Poland and near-border areas of the neighbouring countries (~325,000 or 800,000 km2). Quarterly precipitation data collected during a 5-year period (2010–2014) from 113–116 rain-gauge stations located in the study area were used. Additionally, monthly precipitations in the years 2014–2017 from over 400 rain-gauge stations located in Poland were used. The spatiotemporal data on soil moisture (SM) from the Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) global satellite (launched in 2009) were used as an auxiliary variable in addition to precipitation for the OCK method. The predictive performance of the spatial distribution of precipitations was the best for OCK for all quarters, as indicated by the coefficient of determination (R2 = 0.944–0.992), and was less efficient (R2 = 0.039–0.634) for the OK and IDW methods. As for monthly precipitation, the performance of OCK was considerably higher than that of IDW and OK, similarly as with quarterly precipitation. The performance of all interpolation methods was better for monthly than for quarterly precipitations. The study indicates that SMOS data can be a valuable source of auxiliary data in the cokriging and/or other multivariate methods for better estimation of the spatial distribution of precipitations in various regions of the world.