Betting on Bets

The AI Bookie column documents highlights from AI Bets, an online forum for the creation of adjudicatable predictions about the future of AI. Since the column’s inception 3 years ago, only a few scientific bets have been collected, despite universal approval around the idea of scientific betting. We hope to widen our reach with an additional first batch of seed bets that are of broad interest to the research community including AI bias, fifth sentence prediction, emotion regu-lation, big models, and fake news. For detailed guidelines and to place bets, visit sciencebets.org.

Use of an online forum for relatives of people with psychosis and bipolar disorder: a multi-method study (Preprint)

BACKGROUND Relatives of people with psychosis or bipolar disorder experience high levels of distress but typically are not offered the support they need. Peer online forums may offer a solution, but knowledge about who uses them, how and why is limited. The current study reported on online forum usage during the REACT trial [21]. OBJECTIVE We aimed to report: (1) who used the forum and why; (2) how sociodemographic factors are associated with participation; (3) the relationships between frequency, type of use, and outcomes; and (4) how the forum was used. METHODS Relationships between key socio-demographic characteristics, levels of forum use, and distress were statistically analysed. We used thematic and semantic analysis to understand the reasons relatives joined the forum and the key topics initiated by them. We also used the UCREL Semantic Analysis System (USAS) to compare how relatives and REACT Supporters (moderators) used the forum. RESULTS 348 participants from REACT had complete web-usage data and were included in this study. The forum was accessed by 59% of relatives across the whole age range with no significant associations between sociodemographic factors and forum participation, or between level/type of use and relatives’ distress levels. Relatives joined the forum primarily to find people in similar circumstances, express concerns and talk about stressful events. Relatives were concerned most about recent events, negative emotions linked to caring, experiences of conflict/threat, and concerns about suicide. These posts underscored both the challenges relatives were facing and that they felt safe to share these in this context. CONCLUSIONS Whilst only a proportion of REACT participants engaged actively with its forum they are widely distributed across age and other sociodemographic groupings. Relatives used the forum for information, support and guidance and to offer detailed information about their experiences. The topics raised highlight the burden carried by relatives and the potential value of easy access, moderated, peer supported forums in helping relatives manage the challenges they face.

Exploring Player Understandings of Historical Accuracy and Historical Authenticity in Video Games

Video games such as the successful Assassin’s Creed series allow consumers to engage with various historical contexts and to explore them in engaging and influential ways. However, it is unclear what consumers understand as the difference between the historical authenticity and historical accuracy used by developers in these games. Therefore, this research explored players of Assassin’s Creed games’ understanding of these two concepts and how they expected developers to utilize them. The study used a qualitative analysis of 959 online forum comments and an online survey with 88 respondents. While it was found that players understood historical accuracy and valued it in video games, historical authenticity prompted confusion with 43% describing it as the same as historical accuracy. The results were used to develop a new player-centric definition of historical authenticity to clarify player understandings and present useful and practical implications for developers and publishers.

Experiences and Disease Self-Management in Individuals Living With Chronic Kidney Disease: Qualitative Analysis of the National Kidney Foundation's Online Community

Background: Self-management of chronic kidney disease (CKD) is one of the keys in improving CKD outcomes and quality of life. There has been an increased use of online health communities to share the experiences of those living with CKD. By analyzing the CKD online forum data, this study aims to: 1) understand the experiences and challenges of individuals living with CKD, and 2) explore how online communities may help CKD patients in improving CKD self-management. Methods: Publicly available posts of peer interactions on the National Kidney Foundation's online community for people affected by CKD were extracted in April 2021 using computer programming. A total of 20,436 posts were collected, of which 400 posts were analyzed using inductive thematic analysis, and saturation was reached. Two researchers coded each post independently, and discrepancies were discussed to reach consensus. Results: The analysis identified seven themes: 1) Dynamics of CKD status, 2) CKD comorbidities, 3) Managing CKD and symptoms, 4) Life participation and outlook; 5) Navigating healthcare and clinical needs, 6) Medical tests and results; and 7) Support on the forum. The results revealed that comorbidities were common in CKD patients and early-stage CKD was not communicated in a timely manner to patients by the health care community; living with CKD challenged both CKD and caregivers; some common challenges included but were not limited to the management of a diet for CKD and co-morbidities (especially co-morbid diabetes), CKD dynamics and symptoms, and fear of/ways to prevent progression. Individuals living with CKD primarily used the online forum to share and seek information and emotional support for managing CKD (including co-morbidities). Conclusions: Challenges of living with CKD were found not only in those with advanced kidney disease and those on dialysis, but also in those with early and middle stages. Information and emotional support from the online forum serves as a platform to empower CKD patients with the knowledge, skills and confidence for CKD self-management. Proactive and innovative strategies with a combination of virtual and real settings to improve self-management for individuals with all-stage CKD needs to be explored and tailored.

New Motherhood Concepts, Implications for Healthcare. A Qualitative Study

The aim of this study was to explore the experience of women who take care of their children in postpartum and who desire to be understood by society, with no judgements. For this purpose, a qualitative methodology was followed. In-depth interviews, discussion groups, and an online forum were used for data collection. The participants were Spanish women that had given birth in the past 6 months, and their partners. Healthcare specialists with experience in the topic were also included. Results showed three main categories: lack of priority, self-demand, and self-esteem changes. As a conclusion, the concept of motherhood needs to be redefined, as women feel that they are living under the pressure of being a “perfect mother”. It is important that mothers allow themselves to fail in reaching the imposed requirements. Simple acceptance of motherhood boundaries could help in this transition.

What Does “Asymmetric VR” Mean? A Directed Content Analysis of Co-Located Use of VR by Users on Reddit

Technology is often framed in terms of space and time of use, such that a mobile phone is used to either send asynchronous messages or host synchronous conversations with remote others, while a classroom smartboard supports co-located, synchronous learning. As the technology becomes more immersive, the applicability of frameworks such as the time/place matrix becomes less clear. This study attempts to provide clarity by applying the Composite framework for Asymmetric VR (CAVR) to online forum descriptions of the use of immersive virtual reality (VR) in co-located groups. A related framework, Roles of Technology, is also explored; however, the authors argue the framework must be expanded before application of it beyond mobile technology. To better understand one possible solution to co-located VR’s isolation problem, a directed content analysis was conducted, exploring the discussion of co-located and asymmetric VR use on various subreddits. As a result, 11 patterns of co-located use of VR, including 8 which specify asymmetric VR designs, are identified. The researchers update the dimensions of CAVR according to these results, compare CAVR to another nascent framework, and offer suggestions for future work and applicability to practice. This work is intended to help guide future creation and research of asymmetric VR experiences through the deconstruction of existing asymmetric VR experiences to their key parts via the application of CAVR.

Public consultation in the evaluation of animal research protocols

One response to calls for increased openness in animal research is to make protocols publicly accessible, but it is unclear what type of input the public would provide if given this opportunity. In this study we invited public responses to five different research projects, using non-technical summaries intended for lay audiences. Our aim was to assess the potential for this type of public consultation in protocol review, and a secondary aim was to better understand what types of animal research people are willing to accept and why. US participants (n = 1521) were asked (via an online survey) “Do you support the use of these (insert species) for this research”, and responded using a seven-point scale (1 = “No”, 4 = “Neutral”, and 7 = “Yes”). Participants were asked to explain the reasons for their choice; open-ended text responses were subjected to thematic analysis. Most participants (89.7%) provided clear comments, showing the potential of an online forum to elicit feedback. Four themes were prevalent in participant reasoning regarding their support for the proposed research: 1) impact on animals, 2) impact on humans, 3) scientific merit, and 4) availability of alternatives. Participant support for the proposed research varied but on average was close to neutral (mean ± SD: 4.5 ± 2.19) suggesting some ambivalence to this animal use. The protocol describing Parkinson’s research (on monkeys) was least supported (3.9 ± 2.17) and the transplant research (on pigs) was most supported (4.9 ± 2.02). These results indicate that public participants are sensitive to specifics of a protocol. We conclude that an online forum can provide meaningful public input on proposed animal research, offering research institutions the opportunity for improved transparency and the chance to reduce the risk that they engage in studies that are out of step with community values.

Hitelesség és bizonytalanság a kommunikációban a COVID-19 idején

Tanulmányunkban arra keressük a választ, hogy a magyar kormányzat járványkezelési intézkedései a pandémia első szakaszában hogyan befolyásolták az online platformokon észlelt kommunikációs aktivitást. Primer kutatásunk célja a járványkezeléssel kapcsolatos kommunikáció lakossági megítélésének felmérése. Kutatásunkban a maszkviseléssel és a kórházi ágyak gyors felszabadításával kapcsolatos kommunikációt vizsgáltuk netnográfiai módszerrel, 5 online fórum összesen 2000 kommentjének elemzésével. A fórumok kommentjei alapján az online közösségben nagyon szélsőséges és eltérő vélemények (szkepticizmus, megbotránkozás, vádaskodás, elfogadás) alakultak ki az egészségügyi kommunikáció pontosságáról és megbízhatóságáról. Kutatásunk eredményei azt jelzik, hogy a COVOD-19 idején mind a politikai, mind az egészségügyi kommunikáció megosztotta a magyar lakosság véleményét az online platformokon.

Concept of Soft Violence in Critical Security Studies

On September 16, 2021, Professor Candyce Kelshall and Ms. Natalie Archutowski presented on the Concept of Soft Violence in Critical Security Studies at the 2021 CASIS Vancouver Defence and Security Advisory Network online forum. Primary topics included: evaluating violence as soft in nature, how and where soft violence might fit in the realm of critical security studies, violent transnational social movements (VTSMs), sharp power, and soft power.