Suspected Seismo-Ionospheric Anomalies before Three Major Earthquakes Detected by GIMs and GPS TEC of Permanent Stations

Many studies have reported that there is a coupling mechanism between ionosphere and earthquake (EQ). Ionospheric anomalies in the form of abnormal increases and decreases of ionospheric Total Electron Content (TEC) are even regarded as precursors to EQs. In this paper, TEC anomalies associated with three major EQs were investigated by Global Ionospheric Maps (GIMs) and GPS-TEC, including Kumamoto-shi, Japan—EQ occurred on 15 April 2016 with Mw = 7.0; Jinghe, China—EQ occurred on 8 August 2017 with Mw = 6.3; and Lagunas, Peru—EQ occurred on 26 May 2019 with Mw = 8.0. It was found that the negative ionospheric anomalies linger above or near the epicenter for 4–10 h on the day of the EQ. For each EQ, the 10-min sampling interval of TEC was extracted from three permanent GPS stations around the epicenter within 10 days before and after the EQ. Variations of TEC manifest that the negative ionospheric anomalies first appear 10 days before the EQ. From 5 days before to 2 days after the main shock, the negative ionospheric anomalies were more prominent than the other days, with the amplitude of negative ionospheric anomaly reaching −3 TECu and the relative ionospheric anomaly exceeding 20%. In case of Kumamoto-shi EQ, the solar-geomagnetic conditions were not quiet (Dst < −30 nT, Kp > 4, and F10.7 > 100 SFU) on the suspected EQ days. We discussed the differences between ionospheric anomalies caused by active solar-geomagnetic conditions and EQ. Combining the analysis results of Jinghe EQ and Lagunas EQ, under quiet solar-geomagnetic conditions (Dst > −30 nT, Kp < 4, and F10.7 < 100 SFU), it can be found that TEC responds to various solar-geomagnetic conditions and EQ differently. The negative ionospheric anomalies could be considered as significant signals of upcoming EQs. These anomalies under different solar-geomagnetic conditions may be effective to link the lithosphere and ionosphere in severe seismic zones to detect EQ precursors before future EQs.

Transient Effects in Atmosphere and Ionosphere Preceding the 2015 M7.8 and M7.3 Gorkha–Nepal Earthquakes

We analyze retrospectively/prospectively the transient variations of six different physical parameters in the atmosphere/ionosphere during the M7.8 and M7.3 earthquakes in Nepal, namely: 1) outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) at the top of the atmosphere (TOA); 2) GPS/TEC; 3) the very-low-frequency (VLF/LF) signals at the receiving stations in Bishkek (Kyrgyzstan) and Varanasi (India); 4) Radon observations; 5) Atmospheric chemical potential from assimilation models; and; 6) Air Temperature from NOAA ground stations. We found that in mid-March 2015, there was a rapid increase in the radiation from the atmosphere observed by satellites. This anomaly was located close to the future M7.8 epicenter and reached a maximum on April 21–22. The GPS/TEC data analysis indicated an increase and variation in electron density, reaching a maximum value during April 22–24. A strong negative TEC anomaly in the crest of EIA (Equatorial Ionospheric Anomaly) occurred on April 21, and a strong positive anomaly was recorded on April 24, 2015. The behavior of VLF-LF waves along NWC-Bishkek and JJY-Varanasi paths has shown abnormal behavior during April 21–23, several days before the first, stronger earthquake. Our continuous satellite OLR analysis revealed this new strong anomaly on May 3, which was why we anticipated another major event in the area. On May 12, 2015, an M7.3 earthquake occurred. Our results show coherence between the appearance of these pre-earthquake transient’s effects in the atmosphere and ionosphere (with a short time-lag, from hours up to a few days) and the occurrence of the 2015 M7.8 and M7.3 events. The spatial characteristics of the pre-earthquake anomalies were associated with a large area but inside the preparation region estimated by Dobrovolsky-Bowman. The pre-earthquake nature of the signals in the atmosphere and ionosphere was revealed by simultaneous analysis of satellite, GPS/TEC, and VLF/LF and suggest that they follow a general temporal-spatial evolution pattern that has been seen in other large earthquakes worldwide.

Analysis of Tec Variations over Nepal Obtained from GPS Data on Geo-Magnetically Quiet and Disturbed Days of the Year 2015

Dual frequency Global Positioning System (GPS) receiver in two nearby stations i.e. BESI (28.228 °N, 84.739 °E) and GHER (28.375 °N, 84.739 °E) located at almost same latitude and longitude are used to measure ionospheric total electron content (TEC) for the year 2015. Since Year of 2014- 2016 have been known as most active years in terms of geomagnetic events, the year 2015 shows some abnormal results. Diurnal, monthly and seasonal variations of GPS TEC have been studied. The difference in the value of TEC is observed between quiet and disturbed days. Moreover, the correlation between GPS-data of each month with solar activities parameters such as Kp index, disturbance storm time (Dst) index, and Solar Flux index (F10.7 cm) have been studied, separately for quiet and disturbed days for each station. In case of diurnal variation, mean TEC varies from 0100 UT (LT= UT+5:45) to maximum from 0900 UT to 1100UT. The value of TEC is observed higher on quiet days than disturbed days. For seasonal variation, local seasons i.e. autumn, Spring, Summer and Winter is taken and, the value of TEC is found to be higher in Spring (March, April and May) in both stations in quiet and disturbed days. The difference in value of quiet and disturbed days of GPS-TEC explained the geomagnetic phenomena difference in these days in ionosphere. This study can be useful to calculate the water vapor concentration in the atmosphere which is useful for weather prediction and meteorological department.