Criminal networks analysis in missing data scenarios through graph distances

Data collected in criminal investigations may suffer from issues like: (i) incompleteness, due to the covert nature of criminal organizations; (ii) incorrectness, caused by either unintentional data collection errors or intentional deception by criminals; (iii) inconsistency, when the same information is collected into law enforcement databases multiple times, or in different formats. In this paper we analyze nine real criminal networks of different nature (i.e., Mafia networks, criminal street gangs and terrorist organizations) in order to quantify the impact of incomplete data, and to determine which network type is most affected by it. The networks are firstly pruned using two specific methods: (i) random edge removal, simulating the scenario in which the Law Enforcement Agencies fail to intercept some calls, or to spot sporadic meetings among suspects; (ii) node removal, modeling the situation in which some suspects cannot be intercepted or investigated. Finally we compute spectral distances (i.e., Adjacency, Laplacian and normalized Laplacian Spectral Distances) and matrix distances (i.e., Root Euclidean Distance) between the complete and pruned networks, which we compare using statistical analysis. Our investigation identifies two main features: first, the overall understanding of the criminal networks remains high even with incomplete data on criminal interactions (i.e., when 10% of edges are removed); second, removing even a small fraction of suspects not investigated (i.e., 2% of nodes are removed) may lead to significant misinterpretation of the overall network.

Horizon-K Farsightedness in Criminal Networks

We study the criminal networks that will emerge in the long run when criminals are neither myopic nor completely farsighted but have some limited degree of farsightedness. We adopt the horizon-K farsighted set to answer this question. We find that in criminal networks with n criminals, the set consisting of the complete network is a horizon-K farsighted set whenever the degree of farsightedness of the criminals is larger than or equal to (n−1). Moreover, the complete network is the unique horizon-(n−1) farsighted set. Hence, the predictions obtained in case of completely farsighted criminals still hold when criminals are much less farsighted.

Technology as a Tool for Transnational Organized Crime

Using technology to commit crimes is becoming much more prevalent. The internet has provided organized criminal entities anonymity and accessibility to criminal networks across the world to expand their illicit businesses. Technology is allowing for different organizations to co-exist and assist one another to achieve their goals. Organized crime entities are not only utilizing cyberspaces to communicate with networks across the globe but are also utilizing these spaces to aid in money laundering. Money laundering processes have begun to move online to better obscure assets in relation to criminal activity. Therefore, technology is creating a more dynamic and complex world to combat organized crime.

Swedish conditions? Characteristics of locations the Swedish police label as vulnerable

Deprived neighborhoods where criminal networks have a negative impact on local residents are in Sweden labeled as vulnerable neighborhoods by the police. The method used by the police to classify such neighborhoods is largely based on police perceptions, which raises issues around subjectivity and potential biases. The present study explores the characteristics of such neighborhoods based on registry data over sociodemographics and crime. The data used is a grid (N=116 660) of 250x250 meter vector grids with data on population, foreign background, employment, age characteristics, household types and eight types of crime. Generalized mixed effect models of vector grids nested in municipalities were fitted to analyze the characteristics of vector grids classified as vulnerable (N=1678). Several variables are significantly associated with a vector grid being classified as vulnerable, with the share of population that is foreign born and share with parents foreign born being the strongest predictors. In addition, we consider whether there are systematic differences between municipalities, and develop a model based on regression coefficients to predict whether a vector grid is vulnerable or not. The model re-classifies 39.8% of the vector grids, identifying locations that statistically resemble vulnerable neighborhoods but are not classified as such and vice versa.

Turkey will export its internal crisis to the Balkans

Significance Thanks to its historical links with Muslims in the Balkans, Turkey has established itself as an influential regional actor, an achievement that President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has used to boost his position internally and geopolitically. Impacts Falling polling figures for both Erdogan and his ruling party will increase internal pressure on him. Erdogan can exploit difficulties within the ruling Bosniak SDA party. The arrival of Turkish security and criminal networks in the Balkans will present a new security threat for the region.

Human Smuggling from Wollo, Ethiopia to Saudi Arabia: Askoblay Criminals or Enablers of Dreams?

Sensationalist accounts of human smuggling from Ethiopia towards Saudi Arabia allege that operations are controlled by criminal networks who converge in a variety of illegal markets posing a threat to national security. Such convergence narratives construct Ethiopian human smuggling as an organized criminal business that extracts profits from and inflicts violence on vulnerable people seeking a clandestine passage to work in the Gulf States. Our ethnographic research in Wollo, Ethiopia, challenges these narratives by showing that smuggling networks are developed through personalised relationships, based on co-ethnic bonds rather than extended and complex criminal networks. Smuggling has emerged in a particular context of surveillance and enforcement and the motives of smugglers are complex, making simple characterizations difficult. Smuggling is enabled by ethnic links on either side of the border where earnings from facilitation boost incomes in an otherwise impoverished context.