Relationships between the Southwest Monsoon Surge and the Heavy Rainfall Associated with Landfalling Super Typhoon Rammasun

Based on the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) best-track data, the ERA5 reanalysis, and the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) precipitation data, this paper analyzes the reasons for the heavy rainfall event of Super Typhoon Rammasun in 2014, and the results are as follows: (1) Rammasun was blocked by the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH), the continental high, and the mid-latitude westerly trough. Such a stable circulation pattern maintained the vortex circulation of Rammasun. (2) During the period of landfall, the southwest summer monsoon surge was reinforced due to the dramatic increase of the zonal wind and the cross-equatorial flow near 108° E. The results of the dynamic monsoon surge index (DMSI) and boundary water vapor budget (BWVB) show that the monsoon surge kept providing abundant water vapor for Rammasun, which led to the enhanced rainfall. (3) The East Asian monsoon manifested an obvious low-frequency oscillation with a main period of 20–40 days in the summer of 2014, which propagated northward significantly. When the low-frequency oscillation reached the extremely active phase, the monsoon surge hit the maximum and influenced the circulation of Rammasun. Meanwhile, the convergence and water vapor flux associated with the low-frequency oscillation significantly contributed to the heavy rainfall.

Thermal Behavior of a Light Timber-Frame Wall vs. a Theoretical Simulation with Various Insulation Materials

The objective of this paper is to compare the thermal behavior of a light frame timber wall by measuring 15 test samples with various insulation materials versus a theoretical simulation with the use of a software. This work establishes the variance between the two different methods to measure the thermal transmittance coefficient of timber walls. It is verified that the mean percentage alteration between the two methods is 4.25%. Furthermore, this approach proved that with the use of a simulation software, additional readings (humidity, vapor flux, heat flux, and vapor pressure) can also be considered and measured, enhancing the overall development of a timber wall. This can provide additional information regarding to the characteristics of the masonry’s elements assisting in an improved design of a timber wall with upgraded performance.

Analyzing Variations in the Association of Eurasian Winter–Spring Snow Water Equivalent and Autumn Arctic Sea Ice

Because Eurasian snow water equivalent (SWE) is a key factor affecting the climate in the Northern Hemisphere, understanding the distribution characteristics of Eurasian SWE is important. Through empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis, we found that the first and second modes of Eurasian winter SWE present the distribution characteristics of an east–west dipole and north–south dipole, respectively. Moreover, the distribution of the second mode is caused by autumn Arctic sea ice, with the distribution of the north–south dipole continuing into spring. As the sea ice of the Barents–Kara Sea (BKS) decreases, a negative-phase Arctic oscillation (AO) is triggered over the Northern Hemisphere in winter, with warm and humid water vapor transported via zonal water vapor flux over the North Atlantic to southwest Eurasia, encouraging the accumulation of SWE in the southwest. With decreases in BKS sea ice, zonal water vapor transport in northern Eurasia is weakened, with meridional water vapor flux in northern Eurasia obstructing water vapor transport from the North Atlantic, discouraging the accumulation of SWE in northern Eurasia in winter while helping preserve the cold climate of the north. The distribution characteristics of Eurasian spring SWE are determined primarily by the memory effect of winter SWE. Whether analyzed through linear regression or support vector machine (SVM) methods, BKS sea ice is a good predictor of Eurasian winter SWE.

An estimation of the evapotranspiration of typical steppe areas using Landsat images and the METRIC model

Remote sensing excels in estimating regional evapotranspiration (ET). However, most remote sensing energy balance models require researchers to subjectively extract the characteristic parameters of the dry and wet limits of the underlying surfaces. The regional ET accuracy is affected by wrong determined ideal pixels. This study used Landsat images and the METRIC model to evaluate the effects of different dry and wet pixel combinations on the ET in the typical steppe areas. The ET spatiotemporal changes of the different land cover types were discussed. The results show that the surface temperature and leaf area index could determine the dry and wet limits recognition schemes in grassland areas. The water vapor flux data of an eddy covariance system verified that the relative error between the ETd,METRIC and ETd,GES of eight DOYs (day of the year) was 18.8% on average. The ETMETRIC values of the crop growth season and the ETIMS of eight silage maize irrigation monitoring stations were found to have a relative error of 11.1% on average. The spatial distribution of the ET of the different land cover types in the study area was as follows: ETwater > ETarable land > ETforest land > ETunutilized land > ETgrassland > ETurban land.

Characteristics of the Water Vapor Transport in the Canyon Area of the Southeastern Tibetan Plateau

Changes in the surface fluxes cause changes in the annular flow field over a region, and they affect the transport of water vapor. To study the influence of the changes in the surface flux on the water vapor transport in the upper layer in the canyon area of southeastern Tibet, in this study, the water vapor transport characteristics were analyzed using the HYSPLIT_v4 backward trajectory model at Danka and Motuo stations in the canyons in the southeastern Tibetan Plateau from November 2018 to October 2019. Then, using ERA-5 reanalysis data from 1989 to 2019 and the characteristics of the high-altitude water vapor transportation, the impact of the surface flux changes on the water vapor transportation was analyzed using singular value decomposition (SVD). The results show that the main sources of the water vapor in the study area were from the west and southwest during the non-Asian monsoon (non-AMS), while there was mainly southwest air flow and a small amount of southeast air flow in the lower layer during the Asian monsoon (AMS) at the stations in southeastern Tibet. The water vapor transmission channel of the westward airflow is higher than 3000 m, and the water vapor transmission channel of the southwestward and southeastward airflow is about 2000 m. The sensible heat and latent heat are negatively correlated with water vapor flux divergence. The southwest boundary of southeastern Tibet is a key area affecting water vapor flux divergence. When the sensible heat and latent heat exhibit downward trends during the non-Asian monsoon season, the eastward water vapor flux exhibits an upward trend. During the Asian monsoon season, when the sensible heat and latent heat in southeastern Tibet increase as a whole, the eastward water vapor flux in the total-column of southeastern Tibet increases.

The Orinoco Low-Level Jet and its association with the hydroclimatology of northern South America

We investigated the relationship between the frequency of occurrence of the Orinoco Low-Level Jet (OLLJ) and hydroclimatic variables over northern South America. We use data from the ERA5 atmospheric reanalysis to characterize the spatial and temporal variability of the OLLJ in light of the LLJ-classification criteria available in the literature. An index for the frequency of occurrence of an LLJ was used, based on the hourly maxima of wind speed. The linkages among the OLLJ, water vapor flux, and precipitation were analyzed using a composite analysis. Our results show that during December–January–February (DJF), the OLLJ exhibits its maximum wind speed, with values around 8–10 m/s. During DJF, the analysis shows how the OLLJ transports atmospheric moisture from the Tropical North Atlantic Ocean. During this season, the predominant pathway of the OLLJ is associated with an area of moisture flux divergence located over northeastern South America. During JJA, an area of moisture flux convergence associated with the northernmost location of the ITCZ inhibits the entrance of moisture from northerlies. We also show that the occurrence of the OLLJ is associated with the so-called cross-equatorial flow. During DJF, the period of strongest activity of the OLLJ is associated with the northerly cross-equatorial flow and dry season, whereas during JJA the southerly cross-equatorial flow from the Amazon river basin predominates and contributes to the rainy season over the Orinoco region.

Water vapor transport in cases of South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ)

This case study analyzes water vapor flux that is vertically integrated into the atmosphere in episodes of the South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ). The scope of this study is two cases that occurred between January and February 2018. We use the ERA-Interim reanalysis data from the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) to build the maps of vertically integrated water vapor flux and its divergence. We use two 5º by 5º sub-areas, centralized over Belo Horizonte and São Paulo, as control for water vapor balance. The results point to the existence of water vapor transport from the Amazon region to Southeastern Brazil in association to the SACZ. Convergence areas of vertically integrated water vapor flux predominate along the Northwest-Southeast line. The two cases over the Belo Horizonte area presented an average of water vapor balance of -1.8 and -12.9 mm/day. The average at the São Paulo area was -3.6 and 2.0 mm/day. The negative values indicate that precipitation exceeded evapotranspiration, that is, the area served as a water vapor sink.

Temporospatial distribution and trends of thunderstorm, hail, gale and heavy precipitation events over the Tibetan Plateau and associated mechanisms

Temporospatial distribution and trends of thunderstorm, hail, gale and heavy precipitation events over the Tibetan Plateau (TP), as well as the associated mechanisms with observational data from 1979-2016 are investigated, which have not been fully studied under a changing climate. The results indicate that thunderstorm, hail and gale events over the whole TP show significant decreasing trends, while heavy precipitation events have an insignificant increasing trend. The southeast (SE) and central south (SC) subregions have obvious significant decreasing trends in thunderstorm, hail and gale events, while the northeast (NE) subregion has a significant increasing trend in heavy precipitation events. It is found that the atmospheric circulation anomaly caused by the northwestern Atlantic Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomaly associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) should be responsible for these changes. A strong wave train triggered by the northwestern Atlantic SST anomaly propagates from the northern Atlantic to East Asia through Europe, and induces a more upper-level warming over the TP and an anomalous anticyclonic circulation near the Lake Baikal, resulting in more stable atmosphere and blocking effect, which forces the mid-latitude westerlies and associated cold air to shift poleward. The weakened cold air advection over the TP decreases the baroclinic instability and convection initiation, and finally causes the significant decreasing trends in severe weather events. On the other hand, the enhanced easterly winds in the southern flank of the anticyclonic circulation can significantly increase the water vapor flux from the eastern boundary of the TP and heavy precipitation events in the NE subregion.

Ensemble Projection of Extreme Precipitation Over China Based on Three Dynamical Downscaling Simulations

Based on the outputs of the global climate models (GCMs) HadGEM2-ES, NorESM1-M and MPI-ESM-LR from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) and the downscaling results with the regional climate model (RCM) REMO, the ability of the climate models to reproduce the extreme precipitation in China during the current period (1986–2005) is evaluated. Then, the future extreme precipitation in the mid (2036–2065) and the late 21st century (2066–2095) is projected under the RCP8.5 scenario. The results show that the RCM simulations have great improvements compared with the GCMs, and the ensemble mean of the RCM results (ensR) outperforms each single RCM simulation. The annual precipitation of the RCM simulations is more consistent with the observation than that of the GCMs, with the overestimation of the peak precipitation reduced, and the ensR further reduces the bias. For the extreme precipitation, the RCM simulations significantly decrease the underestimation of intensity in the GCMs. The RCM simulations and the ensR can greatly improve the simulations of Rx5day and CWD compared with the GCMs, decreasing the wet bias in North China and Northwest China. In the future, the consecutive dry days (CDD) will decrease in the northern arid regions, especially in North China and Northeast China. However, the southern regions will experience longer dry period. Both the amount and the intensity of precipitation will increase in various regions of China. The number of wet days will decrease in the south and increase in the north area. The significantly greater Rx5day and R95t indicate more intensive extreme precipitation in the future, and the intensity in the late 21st century will be stronger than that in the middle. Attribution analysis indicates that the extreme precipitation indices especially the R95t have significant positive temporal and spatial correlations with the water vapor flux.