Model Regeneration Scheme using a Deep Learning Algorithm for Reliable Uncertainty Quantification of Channel Reservoirs

Reservoir characterization is one of the essential procedures for decision makings. However, conventional inversion methods of history matching have several inevitable issues of losing geological information and poor performances when it is applied to channel reservoirs. Therefore, we propose a model regeneration scheme for reliable uncertainty quantification of channel reservoirs without conventional model inversion methods. The proposed method consists of three parts: feature extraction, model selection, and model generation. In the feature extraction part, drainage area localization and discrete cosine transform are adopted for channel feature extraction in near-wellbore area. In the model selection part, K-means clustering and an ensemble ranking method are utilized to select models that have similar characteristics to a true reservoir. In the last part, deep convolutional generative adversarial networks (DCGAN) and transfer learning are applied to generate new models similar to the selected models. After the generation, we repeat the model selection process to select final models from the selected and the generated models. We utilize these final models to quantify uncertainty of a channel reservoir by predicting their future productions. After appling the proposed scheme to 3 different channel fields, it provides reliable models for production forecasts with reduced uncertainty. The analyses show that the scheme can effectively characterize channel features and increase a probability of existence of models similar to a true model.

Gravity Observations and Apparent Density Changes before the 2017 Jiuzhaigou Ms7.0 Earthquake and Their Precursory Significance

An Ms7.0 earthquake struck Jiuzhaigou (China) on 8 August 2017. The epicenter was in the eastern margin of the Tibetan Plateau, an area covered by a dense time-varying gravity observation network. Data from seven repeated high-precision hybrid gravity surveys (2014–2017) allowed the microGal-level time-varying gravity signal to be obtained at a resolution better than 75 km using the modified Bayesian gravity adjustment method. The “equivalent source” model inversion method in spherical coordinates was adopted to obtain the near-crust apparent density variations before the earthquake. A major gravity change occurred from the southwest to the northeast of the eastern Tibetan Plateau approximately 2 years before the earthquake, and a substantial gravity gradient zone was consistent with the tectonic trend that gradually appeared within the focal area of the Jiuzhaigou earthquake during 2015–2016. Factors that might cause such regional gravitational changes (e.g., vertical crustal deformation and variations in near-surface water distributions) were studied. The results suggest that gravity effects contributed by these known factors were insufficient to produce gravity changes as big as those observed, which might be related to the process of fluid material redistribution in the crust. Regional change of the gravity field has precursory significance for high-risk earthquake areas and it could be used as a candidate precursor for annual medium-term earthquake prediction.

Long-term atmospheric emissions for the Coal Oil Point natural marine hydrocarbon seep field, offshore California

In this study, we present a novel approach for assessing nearshore seepage atmospheric emissions through modeling of air quality station data, specifically a Gaussian plume inversion model. A total of 3 decades of air quality station meteorology and total hydrocarbon concentration, THC, data were analyzed to study emissions from the Coal Oil Point marine seep field offshore California. THC in the seep field directions was significantly elevated and Gaussian with respect to wind direction, θ. An inversion model of the seep field, θ-resolved anomaly, THC′(θ)-derived atmospheric emissions is given. The model inversion is for the far field, which was satisfied by gridding the sonar seepage and treating each grid cell as a separate Gaussian plume. This assumption was validated by offshore in situ data that showed major seep area plumes were Gaussian. Plume total carbon, TC (TC = THC + carbon dioxide, CO2, + carbon monoxide), 18 % was CO2 and 82 % was THC; 85 % of THC was CH4. These compositions were similar to the seabed composition, demonstrating efficient vertical plume transport of dissolved seep gases. Air samples also measured atmospheric alkane plume composition. The inversion model used observed winds and derived the 3-decade-average (1990–2021) field-wide atmospheric emissions of 83 400 ± 12 000 m3 THC d−1 (27 Gg THC yr−1 based on 19.6 g mol−1 for THC). Based on a 50 : 50 air-to-seawater partitioning, this implies seabed emissions of 167 000 m3 THC d−1. Based on atmospheric plume composition, C1–C6 alkane emissions were 19, 1.3, 2.5, 2.2, 1.1, and 0.15 Gg yr−1, respectively. The spatially averaged CH4 emissions over the ∼ 6.3 km2 of 25 × 25 m2 bins with sonar values above noise were 5.7 µM m−2 s−1. The approach can be extended to derive emissions from other dispersed sources such as landfills, industrial sites, or terrestrial seepage if source locations are constrained spatially.