DUNEScan: a web server for uncertainty estimation in skin cancer detection with deep neural networks

Recent years have seen a steep rise in the number of skin cancer detection applications. While modern advances in deep learning made possible reaching new heights in terms of classification accuracy, no publicly available skin cancer detection software provide confidence estimates for these predictions. We present DUNEScan (Deep Uncertainty Estimation for Skin Cancer), a web server that performs an intuitive in-depth analysis of uncertainty in commonly used skin cancer classification models based on convolutional neural networks (CNNs). DUNEScan allows users to upload a skin lesion image, and quickly compares the mean and the variance estimates provided by a number of new and traditional CNN models. Moreover, our web server uses the Grad-CAM and UMAP algorithms to visualize the classification manifold for the user’s input, hence providing crucial information about its closeness to skin lesion images from the popular ISIC database. DUNEScan is freely available at: https://www.dunescan.org.

Doing Web Surveys During Uncertain Times

The chapter will focus on using a web survey administered using social networks as a gathering point to collect data on people's risk perception and their undertaking of protective behaviors during the Italian COVID-19 crisis. This was an unprecedented moment in the digital age when there was no possibility of physical contact due to the limitations imposed on coexistence by the health emergency to stem the spread of the virus. This is when digital connections are the only link among people, and the only tool that can be used for doing social research is trying to satisfy the desire for knowledge without limiting the potential for knowledge production even in times of profound uncertainty and several limitations. Analyzing the participants' feedback on web surveys during times of deep uncertainty allows the authors to show what is clearly happening to social research currently. The discussions will be supported by an auto-ethnography conducted on comments left by the respondents to the survey.

Investing in water supply resilience considering uncertainty and management flexibility

This paper demonstrates how to make investment decisions that optimally improve water supply resilience, taking into consideration both future uncertainty and management flexibility. The demonstration is done by evaluating investment strategies for a 38 Ml/d water treatment plant serving an urban area with approximately 75 000 inhabitants, where there is uncertainty with respect to future population growth, industrial production, external demand and the amount of rainfall due to climate change. It is shown that the quantification and comparison of the possible reductions in service and intervention costs over comparably long periods enables the optimal investment decisions – that is, the ones with the optimal trade-offs between stakeholders. Additionally, it can be seen that the used methodology enables the consistent and transparent consideration of (a) the concerns of multiple stakeholders, (b) the future deep uncertainty associated with key concerns and (c) the flexibility of infrastructure managers to make decisions in the future using new information. The methodology also ensures that managers have clear plans of action and considerable insight into the extent of required future financing.

Screening for nonstationary analysis

Adjustments in the designs of water resources systems due to climate change and other nonstationarities are warranted because the benefits of effective adaptation are well recognized. Therefore, the time and resources invested in these analyses are well worth the effort. Before a major investment in an effort is made, however, it is reasonable to determine if the problem is of sufficient complexity or the value of additional information is high enough to warrant the inclusion of complex, sophisticated methods that explicitly include nonstationarity and associated decision-making under deep uncertainty. There exist several planning level conditions such as the lifetime of the project, its criticality, and its reversibility that may indicate detailed analysis is not needed. There are also sequential analysis and screening steps that can be applied to determine the complexity of the methodology needed. Finally, the use of decision analysis can also help determine if additional, detailed analysis, or data collection are necessary. The use of one or several of these methods should be considered as initial steps before undertaking a vulnerability assessment and developing an adaptation strategy for a water resources system.

Comparing Metrics for Scenario-based Robustness Assessment of Building Performance

To decrease greenhouse gas emissions of the Swiss building stock, effective retrofit strategies are necessary. Due to the long-term operation of buildings, future developments and uncertainties need to be considered, which calls for assessing the robustness of retrofit decisions. Existing studies propose robustness metrics for decisions under deep uncertainty to be coupled with a scenario-based simulation approach. We review these metrics and present a simulation approach that includes current and future operational energy, emissions, and costs. We apply the seven identified metrics to retrofit decisions of a multifamily house located in Zurich, where future scenarios in terms of climate, occupancy, decarbonization, and cost development are included. The metrics are based on different assumptions and positions towards risk. We further find that the discriminatory power is different, confirming the Minimax Regret metric to be most suitable for the building context when looking at individual buildings. For the case study, we find that deep retrofit seems to be a robust decision from an environmental perspective. From a cost perspective, the electrification of the heating system with heat pumps and the installation of PV without a complete envelope retrofit proves to be most robust.

The Fight for Climate after COVID-19

The catastrophic risks of pandemics and climate change carry deep uncertainty as to when they will occur, how they will unfold, and how much damage they will do. The most important question is how these risks can be faced to minimize them most. This book draws on the troubled and uneven COVID-19 experience to illustrate the critical need to ramp up resilience rapidly and effectively on a global scale. It exposes parallels between the underutilized measures that governments should have taken to contain the spread of COVID-19—such as early action, cross-border planning, and bolstering emergency preparation—and the steps leaders can take now to mitigate the impacts of climate change. Through practical analyses of current policy and thoughtful guidance for successful climate adaptation, the book reveals that, just as society has transformed itself to meet the challenge of coronavirus, so too will the thinking and policies need to be adapted to combat the ever-increasing threat of climate change.

The Humble Charisma of a White-Dressed Man in a Desert Place: Pope Francis’ Communicative Style in the Covid-19 Pandemic

The context of deep uncertainty, fear, and “social distancing” characterizing the COVID-19 pandemic has led to a need for cultural anchorages and charismatic leaders who may conjointly and effectively support human beings, strengthen their identity, and empower social commitment. In this perspective, the charismatic leadership of Pope Francis, which is widely shared not only within the religious world, may play a crucial role in facing emergency with existential reasons and psychological resources. The general aim of this work is to shed light on the communicative features of the charismatic leadership of Pope Francis during the pandemic emergency; in order to better understand his effectiveness, we analyzed both the core issues and his multimodal body signals in the global TV event of the Universal Prayer with the Urbi et Orbi Blessing. The multimodal and discursive analyses of the homily enabled us to define the “humble” charisma of the Pope, which is based upon on authentic and informal presence, manifested emotional signals (and, in particular commotion) showing features of equity and familiarity. From a discursive point of view, the common and overarching affiliation is constructed through a multiple focus on the “we” pronoun, which is constructed through socio-epistemic rhetoric. The results show how this integrated methodological perspectives, which is multimodal and discursive, may offer meaningful pathways detection of effective and persuasive signals.