On the relationship between party polarization and citizen polarization

Do party policy offerings simply reflect public opinion or do parties shape public demand for policies? Theories of party position-taking and the operation of democracy expect parties to track their supporters’ positions, while scholarship of public opinion has shown voters often adopt the position of their preferred parties. We apply both of these theoretical expectations to the relationship between citizen polarization and party polarization and additionally argue that the relationship between them should be stronger among more politically more engaged and sophisticated citizens. We draw on aggregated survey data from 174 cross-national and national election studies from 19 established democracies, to assess the extent to which citizen polarization responds to party polarization, the extent to which parties respond to changes in citizen polarization, and whether these relationships differ across different groups of citizens. We estimate seemingly unrelated error-correction models employing data on party and citizen positions from 1971 to 2019. Our findings suggest that citizen polarization follows party polarization and also that politically engaged and sophisticated citizens are more responsive to changes in party polarization than the politically less engaged and unsophisticated. In contrast, we find little evidence that party polarization responds to changes in citizen polarization.

Politics and Election Studies in Terengganu Darul Iman: A Preliminary Study of Systematic Analysis Literature Review

This article is a preliminary study using systematic analysis of literature review for politics and election studies in Terengganu. Based on Table 1, the party that ruled Terengganu had changed thrice from 1959 to 2018. This started from the first general election until the 14th general election. At the beginning of 1959, Terengganu is governed by the Malaysian Islamic Party (PAS; Parti Islam Se-Malaysia). Nevertheless, the state ruling was taken over by Perikatan or BN in 1964 to 1995 and was seized by PAS in 1999. In 2004, BN managed to occupy the government seat once more, but it lasted for only 15 years compared to the years before because, in 2018, PAS managed to win the hearts of the Terengganu people to rule the state back again. The purpose of this study is to identify the number of studies and research themes in the studies on politics and election in Terengganu. Apart from that, the voting pattern in Terengganu from 1959 to 2018 is also included as the basis of knowledge about the election in Terengganu. Keywords: Elections; Politics; Terengganu; PAS; Systematic Review.

The Relationship Between (sub)national Identity, Citizenship Conceptions, and Perceived Ethnic Threat in Flanders and Wallonia for the Period 1995–2020: A Measurement Invariance Testing Strategy

This article examines the relationship between (sub)national identity and attitudes towards immigrants in the multinational context of Belgium. We extend our previous studies by analysing a longer time period (1995–2020) and by making a strong case for the idea that measurement invariance testing and theoretical meaningfulness are closely intertwined. To examine whether and how the relationship between (sub)national identity and perceived ethnic threat has changed over time and between regions, we first test for metric invariance of the latent concepts. Using data from the Belgian National Election Studies, we illustrate that evaluating invariance of measurements is a necessary condition for comparative research, but also that measurement equivalence testing should be considered as an empirical guide showing researchers where substantial conclusions should potentially be revisited and theoretical validity rethought. Next, we verify whether the relationship between (sub)national identity and perceptions of ethnic threat across subnational units can be attributed to different conceptions of community membership -in terms of ethnic and/or civic citizenship conceptions- in Flanders and Wallonia. While we expected that a strong identification with Flanders would primarily be related to an ethnic citizenship representation, and as a result, stronger feelings of threat towards immigrants; we expected that a strong identification with Wallonia would primarily be related to a civic representation of the nation and therefore lower feelings of threat. Thanks to our thorough invariance testing strategy, the conceptualisation and measurement of (sub)national identity had to be adjusted in Wallonia, and the hypotheses had to be qualified.

The Political Premium of Television Celebrity

This paper studies the electoral consequences of television stardom through the career of Ronald Reagan. I utilize quasi-experimental variation in television reception to estimate the causal effect of celebrity exposure on political support. I find that Reagan’s tenure as the host of a 1950s entertainment television program translated into support for his candidacy, in terms of votes and political donations, nearly two decades after the show’s first airing. Placebo checks suggest that this impact is not driven by unobserved heterogeneity or omitted variable bias. The effect was especially pronounced in the 1976 Republican primary elections relative to the general presidential elections and partially dissipated in locations where Reagan was a known political entity. Using the American National Election Studies (ANES) surveys, I provide evidence on possible mechanisms. Consistent with rational updating, nonpolitical media increased voters’ assessment of Reagan’s character and leadership, personalizing political considerations in elections featuring him. (JEL D72, L82, Z13)

Media Representation of Women Parliamentary Candidates in Africa

Chapter 6 focuses on how women candidates are portrayed in the media. The chapter analyzes the coverage of women candidates in Ghana’s Daily Graphic, one of the country’s largest newspapers, during the December 2016 general election. Studies of how the media cover women politicians are quite rare in Africa. In this study, Coffie and Medie find that women candidates do not face bias in the quantity or quality of media coverage. Instead, women candidates are somewhat more likely to be covered by the Daily Graphic and articles on women are slightly longer than articles on men. Moreover, the coverage of women is not disproportionately focused on women’s issues, nor is it disproportionately negative and focused on women’s appearance. To explain these surprising findings, Coffie and Medie draw on interviews with reporters and elected women representatives.

The Generational and Institutional Sources of the Global Decline in Voter Turnout

ABSTRACT Why has voter turnout declined in democracies all over the world? This article draws on findings from microlevel studies and theorizes two explanations: generational change and a rise in the number of elective institutions. The empirical section tests these hypotheses along with other explanations proposed in the literature—shifts in party/candidate competition, voting-age reform, weakening group mobilization, income inequality, and economic globalization. The authors conduct two analyses. The first analysis employs an original data set covering all post-1945 democratic national elections. The second studies individual-level data from the Comparative Study of Electoral Systems and British, Canadian, and US national election studies. The results strongly support the generational change and elective institutions hypotheses, which account for most of the decline in voter turnout. These findings have important implications for a better understanding of the current transformations of representative democracy and the challenges it faces.

The Authoritarian Predisposition and American Public Support for Social Security

Authoritarianism, an individual-level predisposition that favors security, conformity, and certainty, has been powerfully linked with cultural conservatism and support for “strongman” politicians but weakly and inconsistently linked with public opinion toward economic issues. In examining this latter relationship, past work has tended to pose a dichotomous question, is authoritarianism associated with economic liberalism/conservatism or not? Here, I diverge from this approach and argue that authoritarianism is associated with support for one specific program—Social Security. I argue that the unique framing of this program, which emphasizes rule-following, certainty, and deservingness, should resonate with authoritarian-minded individuals. I test this with survey data, primarily from the American National Election Studies (ANES). Overall, I find a positive and substantively significant relationship between authoritarianism and support for Social Security but not for other types of domestic social welfare spending. These findings help us better understand the correlates of mass support for Social Security as well as the policy consequences of authoritarianism. These findings also suggest that Social Security will likely remain popular in an increasingly authoritarian Republican Party.

Threat to National Community?

This is the first of two chapters examining the relationship between authoritarianism and attitudes towards the EU. After explaining why existing utilitarian, cultural, and political explanations fail to explain fully the present structure of EU attitudes, the chapter presents the argument that the roots of this polarization over EU attitudes can be found in authoritarianism. The expanded institutional powers and membership of the EU pose a threat to national sovereignty and community. EU institutions have greater capacity to enforce policy upon member states, and the broader membership of the EU opens the borders of member states to a wider population. High authoritarians find these developments threatening and oppose the EU, while low authoritarians view the EU as increasing individual autonomy and social diversity. The analysis compiles data from the European Values Survey and national election studies from several countries. The results show that high authoritarians are less likely to support European integration, to trust the EU, or to support enlargement of the EU’s membership. This relationship holds when measures of social identity are included in this analysis, due in part to the effect of authoritarianism on social identity attitudes. Furthermore, evidence from an original survey conducted in Germany shows that high authoritarians are more likely to believe that the EU threatens Germany’s culture and laws.

Party Competition and Cooperation Shape Affective Polarization: Evidence from Natural and Survey Experiments in Israel

Does electoral competition increase affective polarization? Can inter-party cooperation depolarize voters? Addressing these questions is challenging since both competition and cooperation are endogenous to political attitudes. Building on social identity theory and leveraging a natural experiment unfolding over seven Israeli election studies, we demonstrate that the enhanced salience of electoral competition increases affective polarization. We then consider whether inter-party cooperation can depolarize the electorate. To do so, we further build on theories of coalition ambivalence and party brands and leverage the ambiguity around coalition building following elections of Israel’s 22nd Knesset, to implement a survey experiment where we credibly shape respondents’ perceptions regarding the likelihood that a unity government will form. We find that priming party cooperation in the form of a unity government promotes tolerance across partisan lines. Our studies contribute to the affective polarization literature by identifying institutional causes and remedies of polarization in a comparative context.

When Marriage Gets Hard: Intra-Coalition Conflict and Electoral Accountability

Combining individual-level with event-level data across 25 European countries and three sets of European Election Studies, this study examines the effect of conflict between parties in coalition government on electoral accountability and responsibility attribution. We find that conflict increases punishment for poor economic performance precisely because it helps clarify to voters parties’ actions and responsibilities while in office. The results indicate that under conditions of conflict, the punishment is equal for all coalition partners when they share responsibility for poor economic performance. When there is no conflict within a government, the effect of poor economic evaluations on vote choice is rather low, with slightly more punishment targeted to the prime minister’s party. These findings have important implications for our understanding of electoral accountability and political representation in coalition governments.