Azerbejdżan pod rządami Alijewów

In previous years Azerbaijan experienced only a few of leadership changes following independence in 1991. In 1992 Abulfaz Elchibey, the leader of the Popular Front, won first fairly contested presidential election. However the beginning of the current phase political life took place in 1993. As a result of the ensuing war, Armenian armed forces occupied then 14–16 percent of Azerbaijan (20 percent according to Azerbaijani sources), including the Nagorno-Karabakh region and seven surrounding districts. The collapse of the Popular Front government led to Heidar Aliev’s former communist party boss return to Baku as national leader. During his presidency (1993–2003), Aliev ensured political order, economic stabilization and peace, but suppressed political pluralism. At the time Azerbaijan has positioned itself on the international scene as an increasingly important actor, but in domestic politics system crafted by Aliev political power was concentrated in the hands post-Soviet cadres and regional clans. Ilham Aliev became president of the country in 2003. The period immediately preceding and following his reelection for a second term in October 2008 was marked by further steps towards the consolidation of the semiauthoritarian and authoritarian regime established by his father – Heidar.

Bezpieczeństwo ekonomiczne Republiki Azerbejdżanu w okresie transformacji gospodarczej lat dziewięćdziesiątych XX w.

The purpose of this article is to assess the level of economic security of the Republic of Azerbaijan during the economic transformation of the 1990s. The analyzed period was divided into two stages: the transformation crisis (1992–1995) and economic stabilization and recovery (1996–2000). The strengths and weaknesses of the resource state were also discussed. The analysis showed that the economic policy of Gaidar Aliyev and the choice of the raw material model of the economy allowed to stabilize the economy in the second half of the 1990s and to initiate a period of economic growth. Thanks to the implemented reforms and investments in the oil and gas sector, the level of economic security in Azerbaijan has increased. The low standard of living of the citizens remained an unresolved problem. Moreover, the growing dependence of the state on the production and sale of oil became a challenge for the economic policy of the Azerbaijani authorities in the following years.

Taylor’s rule, political cycle, and Latin America—An analysis of time series in search of responsibility for monetary stabilization

The decades before 1990 were dramatic for Latin American economies. However, from 1990 onwards, a set of policies followed by the various states in the region acheived economic stabilization with real income recovery. The attribution of this success has been disputed by politicians, economists and officials from international economic support institutions. This work will analyze the responsibility for this success in 4 economies in the region (Brazil, Colombia, Mexico and Peru). Through the combined analysis of ARDL, Markov states and structural breaks, we highlight different sources of responsibility in different periods. Additionally, detailing the states of each regime, we verify the duration of the regimes related to inflation rates and to interest rates in the region. We identify specific governments as associated with moments of economic stabilization in the region, so the hypothesis of the political cycle cannot be rejected for the set of results achieved. As policy implication, we claim that Taylor rules are endogenous to Political Budget Cycles and so stabilization plans are restricted to political tenures.

Thucydides Trap, Global Value Chain, and Future of China

Chapter 10 analyzes the issue of whether China would fall into the Thucydides trap, which is defined here as a situation where the US causes China to stop expanding as an economic power. Before the Trump administration, China was navigating steadily to grow beyond the middle-income trap (MIT), building its China-led global value chain (GVC) and localizing formerly imported goods into domestic production. However, it suddenly faced another trap, of Thucydides, because of the US measures for containing the further rise of China as a superpower. China will not collapse unless the US dares to wage an all-out war by taking drastic measures across various fronts of confrontation. The sudden emergence of this new trap disrupted the China-led GVC formed around Asia, which still relies on the West for key high-technology goods. Such disruption would have further repercussions on the prospect of China’s growth beyond the MIT because China must now reallocate resources away from economic competitiveness and “Made in China 2025” to socio-economic stabilization and job creation. China remains a developmental state. Its Asian neighbors have gone through their path of political democratization, but China now faces the challenge of crossing this unknown territory. This situation may be a more challenging trap compared with the MIT and the Thucydides trap. Thus, China now faces triple traps.

Economic Stabilization after the Treaty of Trianon: Challenges and Possibilities

The ‘Great War’ had harmful impacts on Hungary’s national economy. With the disintegration of the Austro-Hungarian Monarchy, the former self-sufficient economic unit broke into six different entities, which had far-reaching consequences in Central and Eastern Europe. Economic difficulties were further aggravated by rampant inflation. Finally, the loss of the majority of raw materials by the Treaty of Trianon meant that Hungary was cut off from its sources of supply. The following paper examines the impacts of economic reconstruction in Hungary. The analysis also focuses on the development of industry, agriculture, and trade in the 1920s.

Al-Shabaab

The Somali militant Islamist and proto-state insurgent organization known as “Al-Shabaab” (Harakat Al-Shabaab al-Mujahideen in Arabic and Xarakada Mujaahidiinta Al Shabaab in Somali) is a group with multiple layers of identity. Ranging from the local and national to the regional and transnational, it is a group whose multifaceted self-perception and public portrayals have been some of its greatest sources of endurance since its emergence in 2006. On the one hand, Al-Shabaab’s ideology, goals, and membership are grounded in the domestic Somali context, though it has been able to localize and establish networks of sympathizers and recruits in neighboring East African states, including in Kenya, Ethiopia, Tanzania, and Uganda. On the other hand, Al-Shabaab is also the official East African affiliate of the transnational militant Islamist group al-Qaeda. Al-Shabaab first emerged publicly in 2006 as the most radical faction within the military wing of the Islamic Courts Union (ICU). The ICU succeeded in forming a coalition that led to the establishment of an environment of both relative law and order as well as economic stabilization. When, in 2006, the Ethiopian military invaded Somalia and occupied parts of the country to prop up the Somali Transitional Federal Government (TFG), the ICU collapsed. Al-Shabaab emerged as an independent group spearheading a growing insurgency against Ethiopian military forces and, later, African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) peacekeepers. Beginning in 2008, as Al-Shabaab started to rapidly capture territory, it pursued the establishment of civil-governing mechanisms in areas it controlled. These mechanisms and institutions included a judiciary, police force (the Jaysh al-Hisba), a military wing (the Jaysh al-Usra), and offices of taxation, political affairs and clan relations, education, religious affairs and missionary propagation (daʿwa), health services, agriculture, and social services and charity programs, including a drought and humanitarian relief committee. Alongside its domestically rooted identity, Al-Shabaab also has a transnational, globalist aspect to its organizational identity and is an official affiliate of al-Qaeda, with its leadership having pledged allegiance to the group publicly in February 2012, an oath accepted by al-Qaeda chief Ayman al-Zawahiri. As of 2021—and despite national, bilateral, and multilateral efforts to combat it—Al-Shabaab continues to operate as both an insurgency and a proto-state power, controlling and governing wide swathes of land within the southern, central, and western parts of the country. This article seeks to provide an overview of the best literature available on the history, evolution, activities, and multifaceted identity of Al-Shabaab as an organization with local/domestic Somali, regional East African, and transnational/globalist markers. While existing literature on the group is heavily focused on security issues, more-recent studies have also begun to pay more attention to other aspects of the group, including its proto-state governance and engagement with domestic Somali and local dynamics in other East African countries.

Sentiment Analysis Of Government Policy On Corona Case Using Naive Bayes Algorithm

The Indonesian government has enforced the New Normal rule in maintaining economic stabilization and also restraining the spread of the virus during the Covid 19 pandemic. This has become a hot topic of conversation on social media Twitter, many people think positive and negative.The research conducted is a representation of text mining and text processing using machine learning using the Naive Bayes Classifier classification method, the objective of the analysis is to determine whether public sentiment towards the New Normal policy is positive or negative, and also as a basis for measuring the performance of the TF-IDF feature extraction and N-gram in machine learning uses the Naive Bayes method.The results of this study resulted in the accuracy rate of the Naive Bayes method with the TF-IDF feature selection. The total accuracy was 81% with a Precision value of 78%, Recall 91%, and f1-Score 84%. The highest results were obtained from the use of the Naive Bayes and Trigram algorithm parameters, namely 84%, namely 84% Precision, 86% Recall, and 85% f1-Score. The Naive Bayes algorithm with the use of the trigram type N-Gram feature extraction shows a fairly good performance in the process of classifying public tweet data.

Strategic consulting and capacity building in US humanitarian policy

Strategic advising and capacity building are closely interconnected, as they involve the deployment to foreign countries of American advisers who will act by strengthening democratization, attracting military and police contingents, civil administrators, providing humanitarian assistance, economic stabilization and infrastructure development. All of these instruments are aimed at strengthening American influence everywhere and are used by Washington through the activities of American advisers dealing working in developing and post-conflict countries. The practice of the U.S. strategic advising and capacity building exists since the 1940s, during the Cold war it was aimed at confrontation with the socialist system. The role of advisers in advancing interests is enormous and ubiquitous: from Ukraine to Syria, from Somalia to Haiti. It is closely related to other instruments of American humanitarian policy: public diplomacy, educational exchanges, development assistance. The transplant of US civil society concepts to foreign countries is doubtful, but meets American goals. The author evaluates US system of strategic advising and capacity building analysing activities of federal ministries and agencies. The hypothesis of the article that Washington would use these instrumwnts more broadly, and theyvwould be oriented more explicitly towards national defence interests. The article includes SWOT analysis of the US system of strategic advising and capacity building.