Early Estimation of Olive Production from Light Drone Orthophoto, through Canopy Radius

Background: The present work aims at obtaining an approximate early production estimate of olive orchards used for extra virgin olive oil production by combining image analysis techniques with light drone images acquisition and photogrammetric reconstruction. Methods: In May 2019, an orthophoto was reconstructed through a flight over an olive grove to predict oil production from segmentation of plant canopy surfaces. The orchard was divided into four plots (three considered as training plots and one considered as a test plot). For each olive tree of the considered plot, the leaf surface was assessed by segmenting the orthophoto and counting the pixels belonging to the canopy. At harvesting, the olive production per plant was measured. The canopy radius of the plant (R) was automatically obtained from the pixel classification and the measured production was plotted as a function of R. Results: After applying a k-means-classification to the four plots, two distinct subsets emerged in association with the year of loading (high-production) and unloading. For each plot of the training set the logarithm of the production curves against R were fitted with a linear function considering only four samples (two samples belonging to the loading region and two samples belonging to the unloading one) and the total production estimate was obtained by integrating the exponent of the fitting-curve over R. The three fitting curves obtained were used to estimate the total production of the test plot. The resulting estimate of the total production deviates from the real one by less than 12% in training and less than 18% in tests. Conclusions: The early estimation of the total production based on R extracted by the orthophotos can allow the design of an anti-fraud protocol on the declared production.

Alternative Juvenile Production Estimate (JPE) Forecast Approaches for Sacramento River Winter-Run Chinook Salmon

Sacramento River winter-run Chinook salmon are listed under the Endangered Species Act as Endangered and there are substantial efforts to estimate, predict, and limit mortalities at various stages of their life cycle. One such effort is the annual forecast of the number of juvenile winter-run entering the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta. The natural-origin Juvenile Production Estimate (JPE) is defined as the number of winter-run juveniles produced from natural spawning areas that enter the Delta, and its forecast is used to determine the allowable level of winter-run incidental take at the state and federal pumping facilities located in the south Delta. Current monitoring programs in the Sacramento Basin do not allow for direct estimation of the JPE and thus various methods have been used to forecast this value annually. Here we describe three alternative methods for forecasting the natural-origin JPE. The methods range from the status quo approach (Method 1), which expresses the JPE forecast only as a point estimate, to two other methods that account for forecast uncertainty to various degrees. A comparison of JPE forecasts for 2018 across the three methods indicates that relative to Method 1, Methods 2 and 3 result in lower JPE forecasts, by 24 and 18 percent, respectively, primarily owing to lower forecasts of the fry-to-smolt transition and the smolt survival rate occurring downstream of Red Bluff Diversion Dam. Because post-hoc estimates of juvenile winter-run abundance at the entrance to the Delta do not currently exist, we are unable to evaluate forecast skill among the three methods.

From pup production to quotas: current status of harp seals in the Greenland Sea

Harp seals (Pagophilus groenlandicus) have been harvested for centuries in the North Atlantic. Estimating abundance and monitoring changes in population size are critical for the management of the species. In March 2012, the harp seal pup production was estimated from aerial photographic surveys over the whelping areas. A total area of 305 km2 was photographed and 6034 pups were counted on the photos. From this the total pup production estimate was 89 590 ( s.e. = 12 310, CV = 13.7%). The status of the stock was subsequently assessed by fitting a population model to the independent pup production estimate, the historical catch data, and the historical reproduction data. The 2013 total abundance (including pups) was estimated to be 627 410 (95% CI = 470 540–784 280) harp seals. We demonstrate how the model is used in assessment when exploring the effect of various catch scenarios on future predictions.

SPASIAL STATISTIK UNTUK ESTIMASI DAN PERAMALAN PRODUKSI PERTANIAN STUDI KASUS: KABUPATEN INDRAMAYU DAN SUBANG

Applied Study on Agricultural Production estimate and Forecast by using Area Frame Sampling in Indramayu and Subang Districts is based on the successfulness of ‘Area Frame Design’ development for the whole Java Island. A brief explanation of design ispresented to refresh its basic idea. The methodology of the study is discussed and the mathematical formulation to estimate rice refers to direct expansion approach is presented. The main aim of the study is to prove that area frame sampling is reliableto implement for rice production estimate and forecast. For that purpose, sample segments were extracted and inside the segment crop cutting was conducted. Three times ground survey were conducted to map rice growing stage and crop cutting. Theanalysis of ground data for both yield and harvest area was done then production estimate was derived. Furthermore, harvest area forcast for next three months after survey-1 was also conducted. Regarding to the man power capability and the results in both districts, it is considered that area frame sampling is feasible to implement indistrict level.

A production estimate approach to analyze habitat and weather effects on recruitment of two endangered freshwater fish

Factors affecting the early life survival of fishes are often difficult to demonstrate because variable immigration and mortality rates coupled with noncontinuous sampling may confound estimates of mortality and bias inference to more numerous smaller individuals. The larval production estimate (LPE) method eliminates these problems by compensating catch data for size- or age-specific mortality and growth and back-calculating abundance at a predetermined size or age. Despite its utility, LPE has not been widely applied in studies of freshwater fish recruitment. We executed an LPE analysis using 10–14 mm and 15–19 mm size classes of Upper Klamath Lake’s (UKL) endangered Lost River suckers ( Deltistes luxatus ) and shortnose suckers ( Chasmistes brevirostris ) for five cohorts per year for 1995–2001. Larval survival peaked when habitat conditions included high availability of emergent macrophytes as habitat (>15 000 m3), air temperatures between 14 and 22 °C, and a low frequency of wind speeds >16 km·h–1. Age-0 juvenile suckers collected later in each year corroborated results of the LPE analysis, as most (88%) juveniles had otolith-estimated swim-up dates corresponding to early life rearing under the specified habitat conditions. Our results support the management practice of maintaining higher than natural UKL water surface elevations through the larval rearing period.