Recent Changes in Average Recurrence Interval Precipitation Extremes in the Middle-Atlantic United States

Increases in the frequency of extreme rainfall occurrence have emerged as one of the more consistent climate trends in recent decades, particularly in the eastern United States. Such changes challenge the veracity of the conventional assumption of stationarity that has been applied in the published extreme rainfall analyses that are the foundation for engineering design assessments and resiliency planning. Using partial duration series with varying record lengths, temporal changes in daily and hourly rainfall extremes corresponding to average annual recurrence probabilities ranging from 50% (i.e. the 2-year storm) to 1% (i.e. the 100-year storm) are evaluated. From 2000 through 2019, extreme rainfall amounts across a range of durations and recurrence probabilities have increased at 75% of the long-term precipitation observation stations in the Middle-Atlantic region. At about a quarter of the stations, increases in extreme rainfall have exceeded 5% from 2000 through 2019, with some stations experiencing increases in excess of 10% for both daily and hourly durations. At over 40% of the stations the rainfall extremes based on the 1950-1999 partial duration series show a significant (p >0.90) change in the 100-yr ARI relative to the 1950-2019 period. Collectively the results indicate that given recent trends in extreme rainfall, routine updates of extreme rainfall analyses are warranted on 20-year intervals.

Rising Geographic Variation in Alzheimer's Disease Mortality

The burden of Alzheimer’s disease (AD) mortality has increased rapidly, growing by nearly 4- (men) and 6-fold (women) between 1990-2017. Limited attention has been paid to geographic inequalities in AD mortality. This study examines age-standardized AD mortality across 10 regions and the urban/rural continuum among adults aged 65+ using National Center for Health Statistics mortality and population data. We also examine mortality for a broader category, Alzheimer’s disease and related dementias (ADRD), to address potential underreporting. The East South Central has the highest AD death rates and experienced larger increases–5-fold (men) and 7-fold (women)–than the nation as a whole. The Middle Atlantic consistently experienced the lowest AD mortality over the past quarter-century. Differences between the best- and worst-performing regions widened over time. AD mortality was 2.5 times higher in the East North Central than the Middle Atlantic region in 2017 (268 vs. 110 [men] and 374 vs. 147 [women] deaths per 100,000). Rural areas facing health care shortages and socioeconomic deprivation may encounter substantial challenges in addressing rising AD mortality. In several regions, rural disadvantages in AD mortality emerged and widened over time. The largest gaps between nonmetros and large central metros are in the East North Central, South Atlantic, and New England, as well as Appalachia (men) and West South Central (women), with nonmetros having 14-56% higher mortality than big cities. These findings identify the heavy burden of AD mortality in the Southern and rural U.S. and have important implications for health care, service, and caregiving provision.

Heterogeneity in the Effectiveness of Non-pharmaceutical Interventions During the First SARS-CoV2 Wave in the United States

Background: Attempts to quantify effect sizes of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPI) to control COVID-19 in the US have not accounted for heterogeneity in social or environmental factors that may influence NPI effectiveness. This study quantifies national and sub-national effect sizes of NPIs during the early months of the pandemic in the US.Methods: Daily county-level COVID-19 cases and deaths during the first wave (January 2020 through phased removal of interventions) were obtained. County-level cases, doubling times, and death rates were compared to four increasingly restrictive NPI levels. Socio-demographic, climate and mobility factors were analyzed to explain and evaluate NPI heterogeneity, with mobility used to approximate NPI compliance. Analyses were conducted separately for the US and for each Census regions (Pacific, Mountain, east/West North Central, East/West South Central, South Atlantic, Middle Atlantic and New England). A stepped-wedge cluster-randomized trial analysis was used, leveraging the phased implementation of policies.Results: Aggressive (level 4) NPIs were associated with slower COVID-19 propagation, particularly in high compliance counties. Longer duration of level 4 NPIs was associated with lower case rates (log beta −0.028, 95% CI −0.04 to −0.02) and longer doubling times (log beta 0.02, 95% CI 0.01–0.03). Effects varied by Census region, for example, level 4 effects on doubling time in Pacific states were opposite to those in Middle Atlantic and New England states. NPI heterogeneity can be explained by differential timing of policy initiation and by variable socio-demographic county characteristics that predict compliance, particularly poverty and racial/ethnic population. Climate exhibits relatively consistent relationships across Census regions, for example, higher minimum temperature and specific humidity were associated with lower doubling times and higher death rates for this period of analysis in South Central, South Atlantic, Middle Atlantic, and New England states.Conclusion and Relevance: Heterogeneity exists in both the effectiveness of NPIs across US Census regions and policy compliance. This county-level variability indicates that control strategies are best designed at community-levels where policies can be tuned based on knowledge of local disparities and compliance with public health ordinances.

Overview: Lithic quarries in Pennsylvania: the archaeology of tool stone procurement

This collection of papers, published in numbers 3 and 4 of this volume of North American Archaeologist, reflects recent research into the development of pre-contact period quarries in Pennsylvania and the surrounding Middle Atlantic region.

County-Level Estimates of Excess Mortality associated with COVID-19 in the United States

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic in the US has been largely monitored on the basis of death certificates containing reference to COVID-19. However, prior analyses reveal that a significant fraction of excess deaths associated with the pandemic were not directly assigned to COVID-19 on the death certificate. The percent of excess deaths not assigned to COVID-19 is also known to vary across US states. However, few studies to date provide information on patterns of excess mortality and excess deaths not assigned to COVID-19 for US counties, despite the importance of this information for health policy and planning. In the present study, we develop and validate a generalized linear model of expected mortality in 2020 based on historical trends in deaths by county of residence between 2011 and 2019. We use the results of the model to generate county estimates of excess mortality and excess deaths not assigned to COVID-19 for each county in the US along with bootstrapped prediction intervals. Overall, the proportion of excess deaths assigned to COVID-19 was 81%, meaning that 19% of excess deaths were not assigned to COVID-19. The proportion assigned to COVID-19 was lower in the South (76%) and West (75%) as compared to counties in the Midwest (81%) and Northeast (94%). Across US Census Divisions, the proportion was especially low in the East South Central Division (67%). Rural counties across all divisions (67%) reported lower proportions of excess deaths assigned to COVID-19 than urban areas (83%). For instance, in the Middle Atlantic and Pacific Divisions respectively, only 47% and 39% of excess deaths were assigned to COVID-19 in nonmetro areas. In contrast, the New England Census Division stood out as the only division where directly assigned COVID-19 deaths actually exceeded excess deaths, meaning there were 1.23 directly assigned COVID-19 deaths for every 1 excess death. However, this finding did not extend to nonmetro areas within New England where only 64% of excess deaths were assigned to COVID-19. The finding that metro areas in New England reported higher direct COVID-19 mortality than excess mortality suggests that reductions in mortality from other causes of death may have occurred in these areas, at least among some populations. Across individual counties, the percentage of excess deaths not assigned to COVID-19 varied substantially, with some counties’ direct COVID-19 tallies capturing only a small fraction of total excess deaths, whereas in other counties the direct COVID-19 death rate far exceeded the number of estimated excess deaths. Taken together, our results suggest that regional inequalities in the mortality burden associated with COVID-19 are not fully revealed by data at the state level and that consideration of excess deaths across US counties is critical for a full accounting of the disparate regional effects of the pandemic on US mortality.

A Shelf Water Cascading Event near Cape Hatteras

Carbon-rich Middle Atlantic Bight (MAB) and South Atlantic Bight (SAB) shelf waters typically converge on the continental shelf near Cape Hatteras. Both are often exported to the adjacent open ocean in this region. During a survey of the region in mid-January 2018, there was no sign of shelf water export at the surface. Instead, a subsurface layer of shelf water with high chlorophyll and dissolved oxygen was observed at the edge of the Gulf Stream east of Cape Hatteras. Strong cooling over the MAB and SAB shelves in early January led to shelf waters being denser than offshore surface waters. Driven by the density gradient, the denser shelf waters cascaded beneath the Gulf Stream and were subsequently entrained into the Gulf Stream, as they were advected northeastward. Underwater glider observations 80 km downstream of the export location captured 0.44 Sv of shelf waters transported along the edge of the Gulf Stream in January 2018. In total, as much as 7×106 kg of carbon was exported from the continental shelf to a greater depth in the open ocean during this 5-day-long cascading event. Earlier observations of near-bottom temperature and salinity at a depth of 230 m captured several multiday episodes of shelf water at a location that was otherwise dominated by Gulf Stream water, indicating that the January 2018 cascading event was not unique. Cascading is an important, yet little-studied pathway of carbon export and sequestration at Cape Hatteras.

Exposure of Domestic Cats to Three Zoonotic Bartonella Species in the United States

Cat-associated Bartonella species, which include B. henselae, B. koehlerae, and B. clarridgeiae, can cause mild to severe illness in humans. In the present study, we evaluated 1362 serum samples obtained from domestic cats across the U.S. for seroreactivity against three species and two strain types of Bartonella associated with cats (B. henselae type 1, B. henselae type 2, B. koehlerae, and B. clarridgeiae) using an indirect immunofluorescent assay (IFA). Overall, the seroprevalence at the cutoff titer level of ≥1:64 was 23.1%. Seroreactivity was 11.1% and 3.7% at the titer level cutoff of ≥1:128 and at the cutoff of ≥1:256, respectively. The highest observation of seroreactivity occurred in the East South-Central, South Atlantic, West North-Central, and West South-Central regions. The lowest seroreactivity was detected in the East North-Central, Middle Atlantic, Mountain, New England, and Pacific regions. We observed reactivity against all four Bartonella spp. antigens in samples from eight out of the nine U.S. geographic regions.

Late Cretaceous (Turonian-Coniacian) sequence stratigraphy, sea level, and deltaic facies, Magothy Formation, U. S. Middle Atlantic Coastal Plain

ABSTRACT: The peak "hothouse" interval of the Turonian-Coniacian (93-87 Ma) is represented on the U.S. middle Atlantic Coastal Plain by sequences of the Raritan/Bass River, Magothy, and Cheesequake Formations deposited on a passive continental margin as mixed wave-, tide-, and river dominated deltas. We apply sequence stratigraphy integrated with biostratigraphy to identify and map two major sequence boundaries separating the Raritan/Bass River, Magothy, and Cheesequake Formations and four to five (Mg1, Mg2, Mg3, ?Mg4, Mg5) Magothy sequences using continuous cores, outcrops, and geophysical logs in New Jersey. We extend correlations into New York and Delaware using well logs. The Magothy sequences disconformably overlie the well-dated (>93 Ma) lower Turonian to Cenomanian marine Raritan/Bass River sequences and are disconformably overlain by the marine Cheesequake Formation, which straddles the Coniacian/Santonian boundary. A "mid-Turonian" hiatus (ca. 93-90 Ma) associated with this major disconformity is a global sequence boundary (K-Tu4) reflecting a ~ 25 m sea-level lowering based on published NJ and Russian Platform backstripping records that indicate this was a major lowering of Global Mean Sea Level (GMSL).Higher-order (~1 Myr scale) sequence boundaries bracketing Mg1-Mg5 apparently correlate with global sequences but are only associated with low-amplitude (<25 m) sea-level falls.Mapping of sequences within the Magothy Formation shows the influence of 2 to 3 moderate-sized river sources, with thickening northeastward toward Long Island, New York, and thinning southwestward toward Delaware. Thick northern depocenters contrast with the preceding Potomac Formation (Barremian-early Cenomanian) with thick southern depocenters. This seesawing of basins on the 100-300 km and 2-10+ Myr scales is due to tectonism likely from changes inmantle dynamic topography. The remarkably widespread distribution of Magothy sequences and facies indicates stability of this deltaic depositional system over ~ 4Myr despite low-amplitude (less than 25m) sea-level variations.Widespread facies correlation provides a predictable distribution of aquifer sands and confining-unit clays tied to sea-level changes on complex deltaic facies.