Optimized river diversion scenarios promote sustainability of urbanized deltas

Socioeconomic viability of fluvial-deltaic systems is limited by natural processes of these dynamic landforms. An especially impactful occurrence is avulsion, whereby channels unpredictably shift course. We construct a numerical model to simulate artificial diversions, which are engineered to prevent channel avulsion, and direct sediment-laden water to the coastline, thus mitigating land loss. We provide a framework that identifies the optimal balance between river diversion cost and civil disruption by flooding. Diversions near the river outlet are not sustainable, because they neither reduce avulsion frequency nor effectively deliver sediment to the coast; alternatively, diversions located halfway to the delta apex maximize landscape stability while minimizing costs. We determine that delta urbanization generates a positive feedback: infrastructure development justifies sustainability and enhanced landform preservation vis-à-vis diversions.

Dynamic analysis of the 2012 Johnsons Landing landslide at Kootenay Lake, British Columbia: the importance of undrained flow potential

The Johnsons Landing landslide occurred on 12 July 2012 on the shores of Kootenay Lake, British Columbia. The landslide consisted of poorly sorted, low-plasticity debris that initially descended a steep channel, before avulsing onto a glaciofluvial terrace. This event destroyed three homes and killed four people who lived on this terrace. This paper presents a back-analysis of this event using numerical runout modelling. It is shown that undrained flow can explain the observed channel avulsion with fewer model parameters than needed by previous analyses. This mechanism should be considered in similar settings, as ignoring it can lead to underestimation of runup and overtopping of natural and anthropogenic flow obstacles, such as landslide protection structures.