The state of the Russian grain market

Grain production determines the stable functioning of the food market and the economic security of Russia. The authors present an assessment of the results of the analysis of the cultivation and sale of grain crops in the Russian Federation, show the dynamics of the Russian grain market and determine the prospects for its development in comparison with world grain producers. A decrease in the dependence of this market on the negative impact of external factors was revealed. It is noted that the domestic demand for grain crops tends to decrease, while the export remains at a high level. In this regard, the role of grain as a strategic export commodity for the Russian Federation is increasing, which has a significant impact on the economy as a whole and the budget of the Russian Federation in particular. At the same time, the Government of the Russian Federation uses various mechanisms for regulating prices for grain crops, such as curbing grain exports with tariff quotas. The article also presents data on the volume of world grain production over the past ten years, analyzes the structure of production by types of grain crops. Based on the given forecasts of the FAO and the International Grain Council (IGC) regarding the production and consumption of cereals in the world in the next two years, the authors assume an increase in the export potential of Russia, primarily wheat. The study used general logical methods: analysis, synthesis, generalization, induction.

Malthus Goes to China: The Effect of “Positive Checks” on Grain Market Development, 1736–1910

After peaking around the mid-eighteenth century, grain market integration in China declined by a colossal 80 percent amid a twofold increase in population and remained at low levels for well over a century. Markets only resumed their growth momentum after the largest peasant revolt—the Taiping Rebellion—wiped out roughly one-sixth of the Chinese population starting 1851. This U-shaped pattern of grain market integration distinguished China from Europe in their trajectories of market development. Using grain prices to divide China into grain-deficit and grainsurplus regions, we find that the negative relationship between population growth and market integration originated from the grain-surplus-cum-exporting regions.

Grain and processed grain products market: topical issues and ways of their solution

The goal is to assess the current state of the market for grain and its processed products, to determine the features of its functioning and prospects for further development. Methods - economic, statistical and analytical, which made it possible to identify main trends taking place in grain products subcomplex of the country, draw up a balance of resources, as well as the use of grain and grain products. Results - in the process of studying this problem, it was indicated that as a result of reduction in the own products volume, the resource part of the balance of grain and its use for the analyzed period decreased. It was determined that grain market in Kazakhstan is exportoriented. The analysis indicates a high level of self-sufficiency in grain crops and products of their processing in the republic. It has been determined that grain industry fully meets the needs of the domestic market, thereby contributing to the increase in the level of food security of the country. The negative tendency of reducing production volume and export of flour has been clarified. The presence and relevant use of grain processing facilities are analyzed. The authors note a significant excess of the potential possible processing volume over the actual indicators. Information on the export of flour in the context of exporting countries is presented. The assessment of the export potential of grain market has been carried out. The emphasis is made on the fact that Kazakhstan has a significant reserve of grain and flour exports. Conclusions - measures of State regulation of problems in logistics system, transportation of raw materials and flour, as well as directions of effective support for the development of milling industry, market infrastructure are proposed, including based on the principles of public-private partnership.

The Grain Market between the Reigns of Alexey Mikhailovich and Catherine the Great: Was there a ‘Price Revolution’?

The author of this article attempts to reveal and systematise archival data on grain prices in Russia between the 1650s and 1700s and analyse their dynamics by comparing them with data for the eighteenth century. The study is based on a wide range of archival sources from the funds of the RSAAA (RGADA), CSA of Moscow (TsGA of Moscow), DM NLR (OR RNB), and SFI CANNR (GKU TsANO). The data from these sources make it possible to construct time series describing rye and oat price dynamics in the northern and central non-black earth regions of Russia. The author substantiates the homogeneity and reliability of the data received and determines the real prices. The resulting numbers make the author doubt the “price revolution” in eighteenth-century Russia. Throughout the eighteenth century, the average real prices remained below the level of the 1660s and 1670s. Only in the 1790s did prices briefly exceed this level. Overall, the Russian grain market was characterised by long-term price fluctuations. The author aims to explain this dynamic by analysing supply and demand in the grain market. More particularly, for the first time in the historiography, the author examines the connection between Russian grain prices and yield in the second half of the seventeenth and eighteenth centuries. It is established that in most cases, the relationship between these indicators was direct: as grain yield increased, prices did too. The article explains this seeming paradox. The data published by the author help not only to estimate the impact of various factors on grain prices during the period in question, but also solve practical tasks regarding various price indicators in grain equivalents.

On the issue of the current state of the Russian grain market

An attempt is made to analyze the state of the Russian grain and grain crops market. Since 2016, the volume of grain exports in Russia has been gradually increasing, while the volume of imports is significantly decreasing. Each year, the leaders in the gross harvest of grain crops are the Rostov, Krasnodar and Stavropol Regions.

Modern aspects of Russia's foreign trade policy and its export potential in the grain market

A comprehensive study of the foreign trade potential of the country's grain complex is conducted, considering compliance with the requirements of food security and the development of foreign trade cooperation. Analysis of the system of legal regulation of grain exports and imports, state support not only for exporters but also for intermediaries along the entire logistics route, and research of the potential opportunities of the grain market and directions for the development of grain policy, considering the existing problems allow the authors to conclude that this area is a priority for the Russian economy. This determines the relevance of the study. The article reveals contradictions in the pricing system on the Russian grain market since the close dependence of domestic prices for major cereals (wheat, barley, rice) on their value in the international market is determined. The importance of the policy of supporting not only grain producers but also the transport and logistics sector, terminals, and warehouses for expanding the transshipment capacity of the grain trade business is highlighted.

RISKS IN THE GRAIN MARKET OF THE SIBERIAN FEDERAL DISTRICT: CAUSES, TOOLS AND MANAGEMENT METHODS

The article presents the factors that negatively affect the development of grain production and the grain market of the Siberian Federal District (SFD). The key types of risks that have a negative impact on the development of the grain market of the SFD are presented: production, market and social. The reasons for the emergence of agroecological, technological, innovative, macroeconomic, foreign trade, commercial and social risks in the grain market of the Siberian Federal District are determined. Macroeconomic risks are represented by external and internal risks. Effective tools and methods for risk management in the grain market of the Siberian Federal District are proposed. The applied tariff barriers (the average bound tariff) and their size, which are applied by the main grain importing countries of the SFD for the commodity group «Cereals», are determined. The countries-importers of grain of the SFD applying non-tariff barriers to the commodity group «Cereals» are presented. The forecast of grain production in the SFD until 2025 is given. The article draws conclusions and presents the volume of grain export from the SFD, which will be achieved as a result of the application of the proposed tools aimed at minimizing the negative impact of risks on the grain market and the development of transport and logistics infrastructure.

Grain farming is the basis for functioning of grain product sub-complex

Purpose – complex multifunctional and dynamic system, which includes a wide range of national economic functions, which is represented by grain farming, and requires priority attention to its development from the state has been analyzed. It is noted that the stability of grain trade, functioning of national and general grain markets depend on the quantity, quality, species range and price level of grain produced, demand, government influence on its production and sale, situation on the world grain market and other factors of an internal and external nature. The research methods are reflected in the improvement of territorial division of labor in the process of grain production and development of grain trade between countries, taking into account the scientific approach to the development and implementation of projects and programs of an interstate association, which should be comprehensive and take into account the positive aspects and barriers in expanding the single grain market. Results – it was revealed that innovative activity, promising innovations for the systems of breeding and seed production of grain crops, development of mechanization, land reclamation, chemical processing, expansion and strengthening of transport routes, information support, management in the fields of grain production and market relations allow the formation of specialized grain zones. Conclusions – in Kazakhstan, it is necessary to create a domestic accounting system in accordance with interstate agreements, according to which, in 2022, a mechanism for the identification and traceability of grain should function in the EAEU. It will require its development, similar to dairy products, which will significantly increase the cost of using these technologies.